The videos are broken up into 10-minute blocks, but here is the first:

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlSLf0Anq…

Dzhakishev’s story shows how Kazakhstan is run by bureaucratized clan relations, with Russia benefiting from the fallout- pun not intended.

OMV, an Austrian firm, isn’t sure there is enough demand.

Gazprom has been pushing its own alternative, South Stream, which will cross the Black Sea and do nothing for Europe’s diversification goals and further impoverish transport countries like Ukraine, Belarus and Poland.

Now the US State Department’s Special Envoy for Eurasian energy affairs, Richard Morningstar, in what seems very strange, is suggesting that Gazprom could be a supplier for Nabucco! So this extremely politically difficult, extremely expensive pipeline, being built to diversify Europe’s supply chain, may be rendered pointless.

Ok, so this talk may amount to nothing, but it does show how much needs to be resolved before construction begins- now scheduled for 2011, to be operational by 2015. To be sure, on paper, all is going as planned- on February 3, all five stakeholder countries ratified an inter-governmental agreement on Nabucco.

His interview can be found on ferghana.ru’s website, http://enews.ferghana.ru/article.php?id=…

Radio Liberty comments here on official Islam.

Overall, I agree with Andersen. He can be reached at  michaelandersencentralasia at yahoo.com

At the end of December, leaders of Russia and Turkmenistan met to discuss the future of their relationship. First, on December 22, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and his Turkmen counterpart Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov met in Ashgabat and signed an agreement to expand bilateral “strategic” energy cooperation. Then the heads of Gazprom and Turkmengaz signed an agreement on the resumption of Turkmen gas supplies to Russia with the start of 2010, amounting to 30 billion cubic meters (bcm) annually.

These new agreements of cooperation and commerce are in the context of an improving world economy and rising demand for natural gas in Europe. It is also in the context of Turkmenistan’s growing diversification of gas buyers. According to the Jamestown Foundation, this January 5th, the Iranian President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, traveled to Turkmenistan to inaugurate a bilateral gas pipeline project, the 182 kilometer line from Dauletaban-Khangeran. During their bilateral talks, both sides pledged to raise the annual trade turnover to $10 billion, up from $3 billion in 2009.

Iran and Turkmenistan have taken advantage of their extensive border and dictatorial governing styles by instituting a series of strategic projects. For example, the Tejen-Sarahs-Mashhad railway line is operating between the two countries, as is the Dostluk water reservoir in the border area. On December 9 the two governments also inaugurated a jointly built gas storage and transportation terminal at Gylanly on Turkmenistan’s Caspian coast. (via Vladimir Socor with the Jamestown Foundation)

Of course, this raises so many issues. If the European pipeline, known as Nabucco, will ever be built, will there be enough gas for it? No way to know either of those. How will China affect Central Asian politics, both within countries and between them? Kazakh President Nazarbayev waxed hopeful, stating “The startup of this pipeline reconstructs the ancient Silk Roads and symbolizes friendship and cooperation.”

I have no reason to be either optimistic or pessimistic. Only 5 bcm will flow through the pipeline this year, increasing to at least 13 bcm in 2011, and reach the design capacity of 30 bcm per year by 2013. Will influence increase with the level of gas? We shall have to wait and see. For now, this pipeline has little affect on Russia, Gazprom and their hold on the European market. The status quo will hold true there. I am more interested in how Central Asia will be affected. On that front, I hope the Chinese pipeline will allow for more cooperation between the countries and more economic development.

Person of the Year:
The person of the year should be Kyrgyz President Bakiyev, who came to power in a colored revolution, under the banner of Westernization, and has spent the year consolidating his own power. His son was appointed to an influential post while human rights workers and journalists were killed. Good job, Bakiyev.

Most Unexpected Event:
The pipeline between Russia and Turkmenistan blowing up in April. Russia probably blew it up so it did not have to pay for expensive gas during an economic crisis. I’m curious, however, what do my readers think was most unexpected in Central Asia this year?

What to Watch for in 2010:
Watch the political ramifications from the Kazakhstan-China pipeline, which finally frees Central Asian gas/oil from Russian transport.

Uzbekistan recently completed domestic projects updating their electricity grid, rendering them self-sufficient. Now it wants to increase pressure on its neighbors in order to get exactly what it wants in regards to dam projects, etc. It will still suffer shortages at peak hours, but it is on its way to energy independence. Turkmenistan achieved electricity independence in 2003. For more information on how the Soviet Union built failure into the infrastructure of Central Asia, Jamestown Foundation has an excellent article.

Kurmanbek Bakiyev’s network of clients is growing stronger, to the detriment of the country’s population. Kurmanbek has streamlined his power by removing a number of ministries and parliamentary structures, essentially giving himself more power vis-à-vis the bureaucracy. On October 19, Prime Minister Igor Chudinov resigned and Kurmabenk ordered parliament to support his replacement, Daniyar Usenov, who had previously served as the chief of the presidential staff. Family members run the security services. Maksim is also one of the country’s wealthiest entrepreneurs. Now with control of Russia’s $2 billion in credit, and with a governmental regime firmly under his father’s rule, he has nearly no limits on what he can do.

Let’s hope he spends at least some of the money increasing Kyrgyzstan’s domestic capacity for electricity production so as to avoid having gas supplies turned off by Uzbekistan. Currently, Kyrgyzstan is heavily in debt to Uzbekistan and on September 22nd, suspended gas supplies to some cities in the Ferghana Valley. On September 24th, Kyrgyzstan’s government announced plans to ration electricity this winter. With few checks and balances in place, the Kyrgyz people will likely have another difficult winter ahead.

Almost all the fossil fuels will be sourced from Kazakhstan. Russia currently controls the export of approximately 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil and with Kazakh oil production set to dramatically increase, Russia will continue to control their export market. According to the Jamestown Foundation, currently operating fields are approaching peak capacity and the world-class Kashagan offshore field will be coming on stream within the next decade.

While this is well and good for the three men pictured below, one would hope that Kazakhstan will figure a way out of being a subject in other people’s plan’s, rather than just choosing what is expedient.

No major agreements were signed, because they likely wouldn’t be honored internationally anyway without Iran, but an important message was sent. As Iran is having major domestic unrest and is focused on that for an extended period of time, the post-Soviet states can gather and show a united front. The 4 countries want to have the Caspian designated a sea, for each side to control its own coast rather than divide the resources equally, which Iran, having the shortest coastline, would rather have. Domestic unrest is foreign opportunity.

However, the summit is really just a show of unity. Turkmenistan has claimed gas fields that Azerbaijan disputes, and is taking them to court over it. Russia wants to maintain a monopoly on transporting Central Asian gas and therefore opposes laying pipelines across the Caspian. So with all these crisscrossing interests and oppositions, progress will be slow and posturing frequent.