Afghanistan and Central Asia

I haven’t done much book reviewing on this blog besides Ahmed Rashid’s ‘Descent into Chaos‘, and that’s really not going to change, but I would like to list a group of recent publications concerning Afghanistan and Central Asia that you may find interesting and worth looking into.

Fixing Failed States: A Framework for Rebuilding a Fractured World - by Ashraf Ghani and Clare Lockhart, Ghani is a former Afghan government finance minister and much of the centers around Afghanistan.

Axis of Convenience: Moscow, Beijing, and the New Geopolitics - Bobo Lo, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is covered.

Organizations at War in Afghanistan and Beyond - Abdulkader H. Sinno, a study using organization theory to examine the participating conflicting groups in Afghanistan.

Petrostate: Putin, Power, and the New Russia - Marshall I. Goldman, the title says it all.

National Identity and Globalization: Youth, State, and Society in Post-Soviet Eurasia - by Douglas W. Blum, the author examines the fashioning of national identifies after the Cold War in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia.

The Taliban and the Crisis of Afghanistan - Edited by Robert D. Crews and Amin Tarzi, an extensive of history and examination of the US role throughout it.

After the Taliban: Nation-Building in Afghanistan - by James F. Dobbins, the former American ambassador pontificates the good and the bad of the US’s role in the country.

All of these books were published within the last two years and should not be hard to find. Any comments about any specific book would be welcomed.

Last Wednesday, a couple perpetrators used water guns to shoot acid at a group of girls headed to school in Kandahar, Afghanistan. Details about this despicable act are still rather muddy, with the number of perpetrators and victims still unclear after reading several reports. The New York Times report has the number of victims reaching about half a dozen girls and a teacher at the school and quotes a provincial governor stating that arrests were made. In any case, at least two girls were severely burned and may be blinded.

“We were on the way to school when two men on motorbikes stopped next to us. One of them threw acid on my sister’s face. I tried to help her, and then they threw acid on me, too,” Latefa, 16

“These cowardly acts reflect how dishonorable the insurgents truly are,” Gen. David McKiernan said. “No one can honestly say they are fighting for the people, then purposefully attack innocent women and children.”

The most tragic part of the story was the sight of the school the next day….it was empty. The perpetrators, allegedly members of the Taliban, but no group claimed responsibility, no doubt intended to intimidate the city’s girls from going to school, and it appears to have worked, at least in the short-term. Instead of highlighting the disgusting actions of the despicable perpetrators of this act, I want to end by mentioning the courage of Afghanistan’s teachers, school administrators, parents, and young female students who have to brave mortal danger in order to attend school each day. Their daily efforts are an inspiration.

Here is a CNN video featuring some of victims and a reaction by First Lady Laura Bush:

Embedded video from CNN Video

From Russia with Hate

Sadly, innocents were also violently attacked in Moscow in similarly brazen actions. During Russia’s National Day of Honor parade in the country’s capital in early November a large group of xenophobic thugs stabbed to death an Uzbek and Turkmen national and targeted the Turkmenistan embassy, injuring a staff member.

The government banned a planned rally on the same day by a neo-nazi, immigrant-hating group, but things still obviously got out of hand. Back in May I wrote about the growing violence toward immigrants from Central Asia by white Russians and the lack of protection being provided by the Russian government. Though at the time it seemed that the state was making moves against such unlawful, violent behavior, including higher rates of arrests, but it appears much more needs to be done.

(Photo Source: CNN)

Who’s an economics expert? Who knows how to solve the world’s current financial crisis? Was that Kazakhstan on the ‘Amazing Race‘? Answers: Not me, probably no one, and yes, Nick and Starr are unbeatable!

With the leaders of most of the world’s economies attending an international summit to try and combat the current economic downturn and create systems which will hopefully make future worldwide recession less likely, it is more than appropriate to discuss Central Asia’s financial predicament. Last week, I discussed measures Kazakhstan was taking in order to stabilize its economy, and how if successful it would hopefully bring this attribute to the whole region, but what about the other states? How are Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan performing economically? What are their financial prospects in the near future? What policies and actions should be taken?

First off, positive news, as the latest IMF Regional Outlook for the region sees higher rates of growth compared to the rest of the globe. The report’s director had this quite bright assessment of both the Middle Eastern and Central Asian regions:

“{They} continue to experience strong growth in 2008, outpacing global growth for the ninth year in a row. Growth is underpinned by high commodity prices, strong domestic demand, and also credibility of the authorities’ economic policies. So far, the Middle East and Central Asia region has been largely resilient to the ongoing international credit crisis and the downturn in the US and other advanced economies. However, inflation has emerged as a key issue in the region, and is well above the average of all developing and emerging market countries.”
And now before I start talking about money matters that are better left to experts, here are some nice pieces covering the current crisis:

The Economist: ‘After the Boom: Central Asia and the Credit Crisis‘

Eurasia.net: Central Asia: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan Confront a Financial Disaster

And a couple more covering just Kazakhstan (it was on Amazing Race after all)

Eurasia.net: Kazakhstan: Astana Working Out Details on Economic Stabilization Plan

Lastly, the Asian Development Bank announced that it is providing Kazakhstan with a $700 million dollar loan to improve remnants of the old Silk Road and to promote trade with Europe.

While I hope these short reports helped us all get a better look of how the world wide economic downturn is effecting Central Asia.  This will definitely be a story worth following as it truly touches the lives of everyone involved. I’ll leave you with this ‘Amazing Race’ photo, you can see Almaty, Kazakhstan in the background if you look really hard.

With the Taliban showing no signs of retreat and with a new US administration entering office it is an appropriate time for all involved to ponder a NATO retreat from Afghanistan.

During the presidential debates and speeches, Afghanistan was discussed, but the issue of whether or not the US presence was either helping or exacerbating the conflict was not. Obama and McCain both were in agreement that the US should bring more troops to the nation, not less, in the belief that the situation needed more boots on the ground to police the nation and keep the Taliban in check. But are the current contingent of Western forces doing more to defeat the Taliban/Al Qaeda or to incite them to keep fighting on?

International Relations Professor Stephen Walt and Princeton Professor Anne-Marie Slaughter debate this issue. Here is the five minute video. To simply put their arguments, Slaughter is against leaving Afghanistan,asserting that it would give the Taliban/Al Qaeda a ‘major victory,’ while Walt is for withdrawal, arguing that our troop presence is only making the situation worse in what is looking like an ‘endless war.’ Walt persuasively demonstrates that the region of Afghanistan is not all that significant to US interests, being so far away and having such a small economy. This is no surprise as he is a leader of the IR realist school.

What Walt seems to be too quickly dismissing is the ideological nature and mission of many of the US’s enemies in the region and their proven ability to hurt US interests throughout the world. In fact, the CIA just came out with a report concluding that Al Qaeda was increasing its reach around the globe, specifically in Africa.

This debate between Slaughter and Walt is short and doesn’t not cover a multitude of issues as deeply as they deserve, but its an important start nonetheless. I have discussed this issue numerous times, but still feel the mainstream media is not covering it enough. I have also let it be known that I myself feel that the US/NATO effort in Afghanistan is worth the time, life, and treasure, but that we need to continually evaluate our strategy and build, build, build up the Afghan government, police, and military. But whatever my beliefs, it is vital that all of us have a greater understanding of the incredibly harsh conflict that we are in and who it is we are fighting for and against.

The financial crisis that began in the United States has made its presence felt around the globe and Central Asia is no exception. How is Central Asia’s greatest economic power, Kazakhstan, handling this economic crisis and how is the economic downturn effecting the stability, security, and development of the region. These were the main topics of a conference between many regional experts in Astana last month called “New Challenges and Kazakhstan’s Contribution to Stability and Security.”

Muriel Mirak-Weissbach, a scholar of the region’s economic and strategic outlook attended the conference and not only summarizes the major issues and policies discussed, but also provides a historical perspective of past economic crisis’s in Kazakhstan. Here is an excerpt of what Nurbakh Rustemov, the keynote speaker and Chairman of the hosting parliamentary committee, had to say of the economic downturn and its consequences:

“He bluntly stated that the world financial crisis was leading to a “misunderstanding” among geopolitical forces, and carried the danger of a direct threat to humanity, through hunger and poverty.(1) He called for uniting forces internationally, to overcome the financial-economic crisis, which he dubbed the “number one priority.” Rustemov mentioned the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, of which Kazakhstan is a founding member, as well as the OSCE, which Kazakhstan will chair beginning 2010, as bodies his government would like to utilize to find solutions to the crisis. Two concrete means that his country could use to impact the crisis, would be in securing energy resources, and providing grain and meat exports to alleviate food shortages.”

Rustemov is correct in stating that this economic crisis may lead to following and connected geopolitical disruptions and he’s also right in arguing that regional and multilateral groups, such as the SCO and OSCE, will be crucial in helping the world get through this mess in one stable piece. Another important aspect of his comments is the positive role Kazakhstan can play in impacting the crisis in a productive way and that is in securing energy resources and in providing food stuffs to alleviate shortages in other countries, specifically in harder hit CA states, such as Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan.

Kazakhstan’s abundance of energy supplies, combined with President Nazarbayev’s prudent planning, have left the nation in good condition despite the tough times. Nazarbayev announced last month that the government would spend $2 billion to stimulate the economy, mainly targeting banks and the construction industry, funds drawn from the nation’s oil fund. Unfortunately, not all CA or world states have an oil fund to fall back on.

What the whole of Central Asia can hope for is sturdy economic stewardship by its regional leader, Kazakhstan, and help from regional bodies, both from the East and West to weather what will most likely be a lengthy recession. During this time, it will be vital to keep the region from falling into disrepair as poverty and extremism would both be on the rise and this may lead to conflict. The US, Russia, China, and the EU all have roles to play in mitigating negative ramifications of this crisis in the region, but a strong and active Kazakhstan is crucial. As Muriel Mirak-Weissbach concludes:

“Kazakhstan has become the foremost interlocutor in Central Asia, not only for Eurasian giants Russia and China, but also for the two major economies of western Europe, Germany and France. If the current world crisis can be overcome through participation of major Eurasian nations, Kazakhstan can become the linchpin in the region for stability and security.”

In addition, the US State Department announced a nuclear safety cooperation with Kazakhstan. Read Below.

The United States and the Republic of Kazakhstan reached a new milestone in a multiyear joint project to irreversibly decommission the Soviet-era BN-350 fast breeder reactor located at the Kazakhstani port of Aktau on the Caspian Sea. The participating governments completed a sodium processing facility that will be used to dispose of coolant from the reactor core. This action demonstrates and reinforces the strength of the U.S.-Kazakhstani strategic relationship, and our joint commitment to preventing the proliferation of nuclear materials.

First off, I would like to thank all the veterans throughout the world who sacrificed for their respective homeland. Military men, women, and families have given up so much so we can live in peace and prosperity and for this we owe them our highest respect and gratitude.

And at this very moment, soldiers, both foreign and domestic, are working to stabilize a dangerous situation in Afghanistan/Pakistan. As the Pakistani army tries to dislodge the Taliban from the strategic Bajaur border area, Afghan officials concluded a conference in Kabul regarding facilitating cooperation on security threats facing the nation and the whole CA region. Leaders of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and officials from Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and Mongolia attended the conference, where they discussed ways to enhance border security and strengthen ties between law enforcement agencies throughout the Central Asia region. These two events, the Pakistani army battle for Bajaur and the multilateral conference on regional security issues are two vital components to increasing the chances of successful regional stability and progress. The nations of Pakistan and Afghanistan can not go alone in this conflict, but they need to be willing to make great sacrifices. In the same vein, international groups and nations need to not only provide lip service toward the conflict, but to truly engage themselves.

On another note, here is an update on the CA regional water agreement largely settled a few weeks ago. It appears Uzbekistan is likely to follow the prudent path and hopefully this will save the region’s people much suffering this winter.

On another other note, I started another blog discussing more general foreign policy and international relations issues called Great Power Politics.

(Photo Source: New York Times, Pakistani troops in Bajaur)

About a month ago, a 4,000 large contingent of American, Canadian, British, Danish, Australian, and Afghan soldiers made a heroic (yes, I’m watching and Saving Private Ryan right now, and these troops are just as valiant) effort in delivering a huge turbine to south Afghanistan’s Kajaki Dam. Here is an update on those efforts which would more than double the electrical output in the Helmand Province along with many others which are in the heart of NATO/Afghan government’s battle for supremacy against the Taliban.

The large turbine has yet to be installed, but its safe arrival has brightened the prospects for the everyday lives of thousands of Afghani’s, many of which live with only a couple hours of electricity a day. Though the $180 million dollar US-funded Kajaki Dam project is a great sign of hope, the events surrounding its arrival and installation portray the trying situation of the country. The Taliban are in control of much of the south and they have tried to derail the Kajaki’s production and further improvement ever since 2001. The workers, both foreign and local, need protection from Taliban elements, who do not want to see the Afghan government gain control or legitimacy in the area, as a successful energy project such as the giant new turbine would provide.

In fact this project, along with the work and targeting of aid workers, could not paint a more clear picture of one aspect of this conflict that can be well-defined. Magnus Linklater said it best:

“Whose values best represent the interests of ordinary Afghans - those of the Western aid agencies working to shore up the country’s infrastructure by building dams and opening up roads, or the violent extremists who shot Gayle Williams? {aid worker}”
The words of Helmand Province’s governor also tell the story:

“The children of Afghanistan will not forget the work done for this power station.”

As was mentioned, this project is far from complete and its future is far from assured, in fact if the turbine is successfully installed and starts to give southern Afghan’s a greater supply of energy and jobs, it will be in many ways miraculous. These soldiers and workers, both foreign and local, may not be landing on a Nazi-controlled Normandy beach, but their efforts are giving a small swath of the world’s citizens a chance at a better life.

(Map Source: New York Times)
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Good morning everyone. Hey, has anyone of you been writing academic reports analyzing another nation’s society and political system, while at the same time taking money from that country’s government to do so? If you said yes, you may be Johns Hopkins University’s Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, which is directed by the much respected S. Frederick Starr.

The Hopkins Institute disclosed funding for three recent reports about modern Kazakhstan, revealing that the Kazak government-funded Washington lobbying firm APCO Worldwide provided $52,300. The reports titled ‘Kazakhstan’s New Middle Class’, Parliament and Political Parties in Kazakhstan,’ and ‘Kazakhstan in its Neighborhood’ all look rather interesting and pdf’s of them can be found from the link above. The reports authors and Starr deny any wrongdoing and insist that the research and conclusions were not influenced in anyway by the Kazak government.

On the other side, Paul Goble, another CA expert at the Institute of World Politics, warns of the dangers of this type of funding:

“The sources of funding should be clearly stated. If they are not or if there is even the hint that someone is hiding something, there will be suspicions, justified or not, about whatever appears.”

He added: “We in this country have an obligation to provide a best practices model for countries like Kazakhstan whose political and intellectual elites emerged from the Soviet system and do not fully understand the importance of transparency and thus may be tempted to use funds in ways that we would and should find problematic.”

This is a bit of a sticky issue, as the Kazak government should be able to fund projects that further attention and research on their nation in the world’s most influential state, the US, but as Goble alludes to, the line between academics and politics is a thin one. I tend to believe that as long as Johns Hopkins accurately reports their funding, and there’s no reason to doubt they did, combined with continued transparency on how and why they are researching and reporting on what they are, the positives outweigh the negatives.

What do you think? When you’re done thinking, have a good weekend.

Two days ago, a French aid worker was the latest to be targeted by Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan. In this case the aid worker, who was reportedly an education specialist from an unknown NGO, was kidnapped by a small group of Taliban members, who in the process killed a young Afghan civilian. Reportedly 19 humanitarian aid workers have been killed so far this year, which surpasses the 15 victims of 2007.

Why are the Taliban targeting and killing/kidnapping foreign and local aid workers? Is it because they are foreigners who may be proselytizing Christianity or other religions? This probably has something to do with it. Though many of these aid workers are actually Afghans who share the Taliban’s Muslim faith, it is true that there are Western foreigners there from many different NGOs, making them more suspicious.

But I, and Stratfor agrees, believe that they are mainly targeted as way to embarrass/undermine the Afghan government and NATO troop presence. These workers are trying to spread education, health, infrastructure, business, and good governance in the nation, and if they are successful, along with the Afghan government, the Taliban are cooked. As in their ability to replace the government will become less likely. They need to foment instability and chaos in places where the Afghan government is present and solidify their rule where it is absent. Concerning NATO and foreign NGOs, many European nations and groups support for the ISAF and Afghan state building are becoming shaky and less long-term committal, and these aid worker attacks are not making them feel any better. The resolve of the Afghan people, Afghan government, NATO forces, NGOs, and NATO home citizens is being challenged by these Taliban attacks. We have to be ready to meet these challenges, for the alternative is a ruler who believes no one is safe, not even Muslim aid workers building schools.

(Photo Source: New York Times)

In honor of Election Day here in America, how about we remind the two presidential candidates of a tremendously volatile and challenging issue they will all of a sudden be responsible for; Afghanistan/Pakistan democracy and stability. President-elect Obama or McCain will face quite the number of tests, and defeating the Taliban and Al Qaeda, bringing good governance to Afghanistan, and helping to stabilize Pakistan will be central to their administration providing international security.

The Bush administration set up a meeting with Obama and McCain’s advisor’s two weeks ago to brief them on the current situation. The meeting featured a who’s who of Afghan experts from the US, NATO, and UN, who briefed two foreign policy aides for each Obama and McCain. The aides were reportedly told that the situation was rather dire and that they would need to start setting up their strategy/policy for the war effort before they take office in January.

“The intent was to ensure that everyone understand that the situation is very fast-moving, and if the new administration spends three months trying to figure out what to do, it’s too late,” said one administration official who participated in the discussion.

The Bush Administration has in recent months been working on a new strategy for the conflict, already involving the addition of 8,000 troops and the naming of Gen. Petraeus as the head of Central Command, and I hope the President-elect and Bush’s administration can work effectively in formulating a comprehensive and stable transition plan.  This plan may have to include a greater willingness of starting negotiations with elements of the Taliban.

The 2008 election will not be decided on either candidates position on Afghanistan/Pakistan, the economy, Bush, and Iraq have trumped it, but the next president had better be ready for what is indeed a troubling and strategic situation in Central Asia.