Afghanistan and Central Asia

Well it looks like I didn’t live up to my promise, but better late than never right?  The Olympics in China have made quite a splash; in the pool, in the Caucasus’s, Bush’s speeches and church visit, and in the Xinjiang Province, where on Sunday a multitude of attacks occurred all over the city of Kuqa, killing around 11 people, injuring many more, and leading to even greater instability and fear in the region.  The group of attackers targeted government and private buildings, used vehicles, grenades, and most disturbing apparently suicide bombings in the incident.  This following the killing of 16 border patrol guards, two bus bombings, and a video threat.

The Xinjiang Province’s Uighur Muslims have definitely overshadowed the Tibetans on the Olympic world stage.   This was clearly in evidence when I saw an NBC special piece on the Xinjiang Province and its Uighur people on the air Sunday night.  The segment was informative, as I’m sure most Americans have never even heard of the region, and discussed the influx of Han Chinese people and culture in the region and how this was causing great material and psychological distress to the Uighurs.  The report was overall sympathetic to their cause and largely stayed away from painting the region as terror-ridden, though the story was preceded by talk of the recent attacks there.  (I tried to get video, but was unable, anybody find a link please send it to me and I’ll post it)

Still it must be acknowledged that the province is getting this type of attention because of these violent incidents.  And though I previously wrote pieces stating the strong possibility that China was just using terrorist claims and fears to further their grip on the region, these incidents no doubt firmly showcase a security threat to the Chinese government, the Olympics, and the region at large.

The strategic intelligence analyst group Stratfor recently wrote an article discussing the extremism in Xinjiang, its history and how it has evolved to what we’re seeing today, and it’s not pretty.  Analyst Rodger Baker argues that he sees emerging ‘a Turkistan Islamist movement with links in Central Asia, stretching back to Afghanistan and Pakistan, blending Taliban training, transnational jihadist experiential learning, Hizb al-Tahrir (HT) frameworks and recruiting, and Central Asian ties for support and shelter.’  Rodger calls the extremist movement a ‘different entity’ than what China has faced in the past.  The article discusses the possible link between the ETIM and Turkistan Islamic Party, especially regarding a video from last April, and most provocatively and probably correctly he argues that this new Uighur movement is blending the HT  and Taliban ideologies with their underlying principles of Turkistan independence, in other words the Uighur movement is becoming more connected with region’s other Islamic militants.  It almost reminds me of how the US/Pakistan helped foment religious radicalism in Pakistan/Afghanistan Pashtuns to defeat the Soviets and then now dealing a force that is ‘blowing back.’  In other words, a mostly ethnic conflict or society is being turned more religious and this may have radical implications, as we might be seeing right now.  I don’t want to get ahead of myself though here (I probably already did), as this situation is very complicated.  What do you think?  How should one view these recent attacks in Xinjiang?  How would you view them if you were the Chinese government?  How would the Taliban view them?

(Photo: Stratfor)

The European Union’s ‘Strategy for a New Partnership with Central Asia‘ has now passed its 1st year of existence and therefore must immediately be judged!  Here are its original stated goals and origins and here is a one year assessment by ISN’s Robert M Cutler.  Now the ’strategy’ is a decade long process that hopefully will go on even longer and its ambitions must be considered rather large considering Europe’s presence in the region has been scant for years, but it is not without use to see how its doing so far.

Cutler calls the project’s a ’slow start,’ but one that has shown potential and should have mutual benefits.  The results have been ‘modest’ in his eyes as steps have been made, but it is too early to see any real change/progress involving relations between the two regions and concrete development on the ground.  Cutler is correct in noting that the EU has made major attempts to diplomatically and strategically engage Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, but is also correct in noting that nothing concrete has come from their talks so far.  Though he fails to mention that in April of this year, an EU delegation to Turkmenistan seemed to come close to a gas deal, circumventing Russia with the Trans-Caspian pipeline, though nothing has become official as of yet.  Cutler gives the EU credit for pushing a degree of democratization in Kazakhstan, using their leverage concerning Nazarbayev’s 2010 OSCE presidency.  However, this influence is difficult to truly measure.  Concerning Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the former has been given poverty reduction to support 100,000 people in the southern part of the country and in the latter, the EU has pledged to help alleviate Tajik’s border patrol and drug trafficking problems, especially on its Afghan border.  In the end, Cutler is right in warning against the ‘Strategy’ becoming too disjointed, piecemeal, with individual policies spread throughout, and also acknowledges the EU’s difficult task of trying to garner influence in a region already beset by great powers Russia, China, and the US.

Two quick Euro items to point out; Though much of Europe {though not all} has been resistant to a greater presence in Afghanistan and the greater Central Asian region, France and its executive have made some positive, strong moves of late and its Foreign Minister Kouchner has ‘called on the international community to enhance security efforts in Central Asia and increase engagement in Afghanistan.’  Secondly, a new German embassy was opened in Tajikistan in late July with German ambassador stating ‘this proves that Germany will further remain a reliable partner for Tajikistan, and do everything possible to further expand bilateral cooperation within the framework of the strategy of the European Union.’
If all goes to plan, I will do a post later today about NBC’s coverage of the Xinjiang Province and the latest spasm of violence that has plagued the region.

Defense Secretary Bob Gates has announced the US support for doubling the Afghan army to 120,000 troops in the next five years, a plan initially proposed by the Afghan government. The plan will require about $20 Billion dollars, which will mostly be paid by the US, but there will be some assistance from other NATO nations, and also involves a more streamlined commandment restructuring, putting US 4 star Gen. David McKiernan in charge of most of the forces facing heavy combat along the Afghan/Pakistan border, making coordination easier for the American, Canadian, British, and Dutch troops fighting there. Both of these measures no doubt attempt to address the rising power of the insurgency. The US plans on sending 2 more brigades to the region next year, about 6,000-10,000 troops. A larger Afghan army will be helpful in quelling the insurgency and bringing security and stability to regions of the nation, but more importantly the army must be strong, trained, and willing.

Here is a picture slide show of displaced Afghans affected by the ongoing instability of their nation.

Changing topics, we have covered President Bush’s remarks about human rights in China so I should provide for you his latest speech, this one his first in Beijing. Bush continued to criticize the nation for its human and religious rights violations, but also profusely praised it for its progress.

On a more somber note, a group calling itself the Turkestan Islamic Party, most likely the ETIM, claimed credit for two bus bombings in July and warned of terrorist attacks during the upcoming Olympics in a recent video. In the Uighur language, the spokesman on the video stated; “We, members of the Turkestan Islamic Party, have declared war against China. We oppose China’s occupation of our homeland of East Turkestan, which is a part of the Islamic world.”

Just by these two stories one can see the country of China is diverse in its problems, but it obviously also has much to offer the world as we see during these next two weeks. Here is Fareed Zakaria’s piece advocating a more nuanced view of China’s rising power, calling it a ‘complicated country.’

Enjoy the Opening Ceremonies and have a great weekend!

(Photos: New York Times: Above - Afghan troops in Wardak Province Below - Beijing, Opening Ceremony)

Xinjiang Shakeup
Since Tuesday’s terrorist attack on Chinese border patrol in Xinjiang Province’s city of Kashgar, things have gotten rather tense in the region, as exile groups have claimed that China’s government has sped up the detainment of suspected ’separatists and increased its presence of paramilitary forces as the Olympics draws near. The region’s ethnic majority, Uighurs, have staged a few protests in recent months, probably hoping to garner the world’s attention with all eyes on China’s upcoming Olympics. It appears these protests are for greater levels of freedom of speech, religion, and assembly as well as protests against what is seen by many Uighurs as exploitation by the Chinese government’s preference for Han Chinese, but the Chinese government argues otherwise, stating that these protests and attacks only support ’separatism’ and ’splittism.’ It would be no surprise if this recent incident on Tuesday does not lead to a major crackdown on Uighur protests or anything that resembles one, but New York Times Human Rights specialist and columnist Nicholas ‘Darfur’ Kristof warns that this could cause a backlash as video cameras may catch police/military brutality during the Olympics and show it the world. Also to Kristof’s credit, he titled this piece ‘Is Xinjiang the Next Tibet,’ acknowledging the incredible discrepancy of coverage between these two movements, both largely fighting for greater autonomous rights and freedoms from China.

President Bush to the Rescue? Kinda.

On Monday, we discussed the dilemma facing President Bush’s decision whether or not to put pressure on the Chinese government on its lack of human and civil rights and on its treatment of minorities such as the Uighurs and Tibetans, well this morning in Bangkok, he spoke up. Bush spoke measuredly and did not mention the Olympics, Uighurs, or Tibetans by name, but he left no doubt in anyone’s mind what the US thinks of Chinese authoritarian ways. Here is an excerpt:

“I have spoken clearly and candidly and consistently with China’s leaders about our deep concerns over religious freedom and human rights. I have met repeatedly with Chinese dissidents and religious believers. The United States believes the people of China deserve the fundamental liberty that is the natural right of all human beings. So America stands in firm opposition to China’s detention of political dissidents and human rights advocates and religious activists. We speak out for a free press, freedom of assembly, and labor rights not to antagonize China’s leaders, but because trusting its people with greater freedom is the only way for China to develop its full potential. We press for openness and justice not to impose our beliefs, but to allow the Chinese people to express theirs. As Chinese scientist Xu Liangying has said: “Human nature is universal and needs to pursue freedom and equality.”

Bush ended his comments on China’s present and future on an optimisitc and in his own words ‘realistic’ note:

“Ultimately, only China can decide what course it will follow. America and our partners are realistic, and we’re prepared for any possibility. I’m optimistic about China’s future. Young people who grow up with the freedom to trade goods will ultimately demand the freedom to trade ideas, especially on an unrestricted Internet. Change in China will arrive on its own terms and in keeping with its own history and its own traditions. Yet change will arrive. And it will be clear for all to see that those who aspire to speak their conscience and worship their God are no threat to the future of China. They’re the people who will make China a great nation in the 21st century.”

The Chinese government will not be pleased about these comments, and have already voiced their dismay over Congress’s resolution regarding the nation’s human rights situation and Bush’s meeting with Chinese dissidents, and in many ways this Olympics is showcasing a strong, resilient state and government, but with pressure coming from world leaders and excellent journalists, some cracks may emerge, leading to greater openness for all Chinese citizens.

(Photo Source #1: New York Times - Beijing Torch Relay Flag Unfurl  #2 Bush with Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej of Thailand, joint statement, August 6)

Gulnoza Saidazimova of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty about a month ago catalogued the child labor situation in Central Asia. Unfortunately child labor is abused in all most all Central Asian states, but in different ways and to different degrees. Saidazimova first discusses Tajikistan’s use of child labor as a ‘lifeline for their families’ who are forced by extreme poverty to take their children out of school and put them to work on the family farm or marketplace. As is common in all CA states, the Tajik government makes pronouncements against the practice, but does nearly nothing to curb its actual use.

On the other side, there is Uzbekistan, where forced child labor is actually state policy, as the children are deemed necessary in the major cotton harvest every September. Human Rights groups have put pressure on Uzbekistan and companies who do retail business with their cotton and have had some success. Major clothing companies such as Tesco, Marks & Spencer, Gap, and H & M, as well as some textile producers in South Asia have decided to stop buying Uzbek cotton and the Uzbek government has adopted a law on ‘Guarantees of the Rights of the Child’ and ratified the Internatioanl Labor Organization’s convention on the worst forms of child labor. But the proof is in the pudding this September. Will anything really change? Will Uzbekistan implement these policies and find alternative ways to complete their harvest in an economically feasible way without children’s hands? In Saidazimova’s report only the Kyrgyzstan government comes up looking rosy on this issue. As she states, it has been at the ‘forefront’ in the fight against child ’slavery’ and not only cooperates with international organizations but also puts actual funds to stop the practice as well. Is child labor in Central Asia a purely economic issue? Social issue? Cultural issue? Can human rights groups’ political pressure do enough, or are structural economic efforts necessary? Can strong political policies and implementation stop or curtail the practice? Is the use of children in work a part of the culture, and therefore more deeply embedded, in the region?

Sticking with the kids, on July 16 Tashkent held a UNICEF sponsored conference promoting comprehensive prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in the region (PMTCT). The conference also focused on pediatric HIV/AIDs care. Tragically, the occurrence of mother-to-child HIV is still a major problem in the region due to poor health structures and nurse/doctor training. Hopefully this conference can make a difference, and at least it is showing an effort to face this unpleasant, but pressing problem by the region’s leaders.

On an unrelated note, two men accused of being Uighur separatists committed what the Chinese government has called a ‘terrorist’ act when they attacked and killed several border policemen in Kashgar, Xinjiang Province yesterday, just days before the Olympics are set to start.

(Photo Source: Central Asian children pick cotton (Radio Free Europe) and (International Labor Organization (ILO), ILO-IPEC PROACT-CAR project)

Yesterday, all Bush’s problems seemed so far away. But now it looks as China’s authoritarian government is here to stay. The Chinese are shall we say displeased about the US House of Representatives resolution requesting China to honor their IOC commitments in regard to human rights, internet blocking, and treatment of its Tibetan and Uighur citizens and about Bush’s meetings with 5 Chinese dissidents. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman called the House measure an “odious conduct” and said the United States should stop “making use of so-called religious and human rights” issues to score political points. I have previously talked about how controversial these Olympics may become, as China’s government fears destabilizing and embarrassing terrorist attacks, political protests from a host of groups, and desperately desires to impress its domestic populace with a well-run games in which they can be proud of (and therefore keep the Communists in power). Having the world’s superpower voicing displeasure toward their policies and way of governance does not fit into this plan.

A story I briefly mentioned days ago, has gotten more bite to President Bush’s chagrin, though he appears to have had no direct role. The House has launched a congressional inquiry into a scandal involving a donation from members of the Kazak government to Bush’s Presidential library in exchange for diplomatic visits from Bush, VP Cheney, and Secretary of State Rice. The main man involved is Stephen Payne, a long-time lobbyist for Bush, who accompanied Dick Cheney on a diplomatic visit to Kazakhstan in 2006, a trip in which Cheney praised the Kazak government and did not mention human rights issues. At the moment, it is unknown how high up Payne received permission to work out such a deal or if the 2006 Cheney visit was a part of any agreement. To make matters worse, John McCain’s adviser Randy Scheunemann has lobbying connections with Payne. US national security and the spreading of human rights and democracy should never be short changed for financial composition. Payne and anyone else involved owes the US and the Kazakhstan citizenry an apology.

Lastly, it appears that there is concrete evidence of Pakistan’s intelligence services’ role in the July 7 terrorist attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul. The US also stated that they had evidence that showed the ISI informing insurgent elements of upcoming US attacks. These new details no doubt strain relations between Pakistan and the US and India.

China, an autocratic state that directly denies the freedoms of the press, speech, religion, and assembly to its citizens, and has shown oppressive measures in dealing with its minority factions, among them Muslim Uighurs and the people of Tibet, is about to host a world event like no other, the Olympics. Now the US has shown in its history that it stands for the very opposite of what was detailed about China’s governmental rule, so should we expect a political and human rights outcry?  We should and it exists, as will be discussed, but unfortunately these issues cannot completely overshadow other realities that are also vital to US existence, for instance the tremendous amount of trade and debt between the two nations and the fact that China is a geopolitical force to be reckoned with in many parts of the globe. The US Congress and President Bush need to take both of these factors into account when they come up with a diplomatic posture toward China during this Olympic season.

The House of Representatives passed a resolution condemning China’s anti-democratic and human rights activities at home and abroad. Here is the Resolution;

“H. Res. ____, Calling on the Government of the People’s Republic of China to immediately end its abuses of the human rights of China’s citizens, including its Tibetan, Uighur, and other ethnic minority citizens and to end its support for the governments of Sudan and Burma to ensure that the Olympic games take place in an atmosphere that honors the Olympic traditions of freedom and openness.”

The New York Times editorial page praised this resolution and demanded more from President Bush who will be attending the opening ceremony. On Tuesday, Bush, who has been quiet on the issue thus far, met with 5 Chinese dissidents, Harry Wu, Wei Jingsheng, Rebiya Kadeer, Sasha Gong and Bob Fu at the White House. He assured them that ‘he will carry their message of freedom as he travels to Beijing.’ The very same day Bush met privately with China’s foreign minister Yang Jiechi, though what they discussed is unknown. Michael Green, an Asia expert and former Bush adviser, argued that Bush’s meeting with the dissidents was a big step, ‘these are people designed to get the Chinese’s attention. It was not just a political move to provide cover at home. It was an important move to let Chinese leaders know that he’s not satisfied with the progress.’

Bush is definitely playing it closer to the vest than the members of Congress, New York Times, or groups such as Amnesty International, and I think that is largely okay. (Isn’t it interesting that these are largely the same people who criticize Bush for not engaging with Iran and Hezbollah enough) Bush is the head of state and needs to show a certain amount of respect toward the Chinese people and the Olympics, he’s got to walk a fine line. I think it is productive to let members of Congress force the issue, as Congressman Howard Berman stated about the House resolution; it is a “direct call to China by the House of Representatives to end human rights abuses, honor its commitments for freedom of the press and freedom of movement ahead of the Olympics, permit peaceful political activities during the Games, enter into direct discussions with the Dalai Lama over the future of Tibet, and end its political and economic support of the regimes in Sudan and Burma”
The Chinese government has failed to make political reforms as Olympic hosts, as this story about their website blocking showcases, and this is indeed unfortunate, but groups and institutions like the US congress, EU, and Amnesty International need to keep the pressure on. And yes, I expect Bush to do more of this as well before, during, and after his visit, but in just a bit more nuanced way.

Unfortunately before the Olympic Games could even begin in China, a terrorist event has occurred. Two bombs exploded on commuter buses in the city of Kunming, killing two and injuring several others. The Chinese police would not officially classify the attack as a terrorist incident, but that’s what the evidence points too. The Chinese government’s number one concern at the current moment is to have a successful, peaceful, and ‘quiet’ Olympic Games and stopping terrorist attacks and boisterous political protests tops this agenda.

The Chinese authorities have taken many measures, some of them basic and some severe, to intimidate and curb possible terrorist or political groups and individuals from ‘acting out’ during the games. For the Chinese government, the Uighur majority province of Xinjiang is a major concern and they have taken many police actions there to keep a lid on region’s independence movement, much like the situation in Tibet. The government announced that they arrested 82 suspected terrorists from the region and to board a plane in the area’s Urumqi Airport a passenger has to go through six checkpoints. The Chinese authorities are specifically worried about the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), an underground separatist organization based in several CA states and in Xinjiang, and recently performed an atrocious act to intimidate the nation’s populace. Thousands of Chinese students and workers were bused into a city square and were made to watch the execution of three convicted ETIM members who were said to have plotted attacks on the games.

The Washington Post has covered these stories very well and had this to say about the consequences of such harsh anti-terror/protest police methods;

“With the Games three weeks away, the precautions already have proved so sweeping that some observers question whether the sense of fellowship and fun that is supposed to accompany the Olympics can survive. Alongside the crackdown against Muslim extremists here in Xinjiang, for instance, have come confusing new visa restrictions, multiple roadside checkpoints, reinforced pat-downs at airports and subway stations, and raids on bars popular among foreigners. The result has been an atmosphere of coercion, not celebration.”

For the Chinese government though, a safe and stable Olympics may be acceptable enough;

“A safe Olympics is the biggest indicator of the success of the Games,” Xi Jinping, a member of the party’s elite Politburo Standing Committee and the senior official supervising preparations, said in a recent speech. “A safe Olympics is also the biggest indicator of the positive reflection of our nation’s image.”

When you’re watching the Olympics and everything seems to be going swimmingly, just remember that behind the tranquility could be quite the eruption.

(Photo/Map Source: The Washington Post)

Russian President Dmitri Medvedev has made his second visit to Central Asia, this time stopping by Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan for the second time. Gas was apparently the only thing on the diplomatic menu. Medvedev and his Gazprom officials are wary of European and Chinese influence and engagement in the region’s energy resources, a sphere Russia has dominated for years, and this trip’s purpose appears to keep that monopoly intact.

Medvedev first went to Baku, Azerbaijan and reportedly told the nation that it was willing to buy up all of its Caspian Sea and land gas to keep it from heading to Europe via the BTC pipeline already functioning, or the Trans-Caspian and Nabucco pipelines in discussions right now. This would be a tall order for Medvedev to accomplish, as Azerbaijan has been courted by the West and strategically faced that way for some years now.

Immediately after this visit the Russian president visited Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan before heading off to the G-8 summit. Russia/Gazprom already dominate gas flow from these two states, but it faces growing competition from Europe and China and therefore wants to solidify its position. Last December, Russia and these two states agreed to build a new pipeline a while later Russia agreed to up its price for their energy resources, both moves to hurt Europe/China’s chances of getting in ‘on the game.’ The purpose of this recent visit also appears to be for Russia to buy up as much of the two nation’s gas as possible in order to stifle any deals the states would make with the EU/China and India for that matter. Russia’s energy policy is not one of just paranoia, as China has just announced the start of construction of a huge, 30 billion cubic meter natural gas pipeline transversing from Turkmenistan, through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, and ending in its own Xinjiang Province and EU representatives are in serious talks with Turkmen officials about the Trans-Caspian and Nabucco pipelines.

(Photo: Medvedev with Azerbaijan President Aliyev: Source Asianews.it)

Richard Weitz, a scholar for the Hudson Institute, makes the argument that China’s government has either exaggerated or outright fabricated a plot by Uighur separatist to attack the upcoming Olympics. The plot in question was reported by Chinese authorities on April 10, and in their words involved 45 suspects from the Uighur dominated Xinjiang Province, who allegedly planned to use firearms, explosives, and other weapons to disrupt the upcoming Olympic Games. Weitz finds this claim ‘dubious’ because he:

1. Feels that the Chinese authorities have failed to produce evidence to the public verifying their claims
2. Believes China desires the safe transport of energy resources from a land route through Central Asia and into their own Xinjiang Province in order to sidestep the volatile Middle Eastern region and the US-controlled seaways. Therefore China is using this terrorist plot as an excuse to further spread its government’s authority into the Xinjiang Province and beyond into the small Central Asian states.

Both of Weitz’s arguments are sound and the Chinese government’s actions concerning its region’s of unrest, Xinjiang and Tibet, have been unquestionably harsh and repressive in the past, but it cannot be denied that there is a real terrorist threat, from the Uighur dominated regions of China and from sources as far away as Pakistan, where some of the suspects from the March 7 plane incident were trained and hailed from. The Uighur-based East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) has been blamed by the Chinese government for over 200 attacks since 1990 and not all of these could have been fabricated. Here is the Council on Foreign Relations quick synopsis of ETIM and their capabilities and supposed terrorist actions. It is also important to know that the ETIM is also considered a terrorist group by the United States (Here is a good article from Global Terrorism Analysis that sums up reasons for this identification) and the United Nations Security Council.

It goes without saying that any accusations the Chinese government makes regarding the Tibetan and Uighur-based regions and security issues should be looked at suspiciously, but it must be acknowledged that the Chinese state has cause to be concerned about a terrorist threat, specifically regarding its hosting of the upcoming Olympics. Am I being to kind/naïve about the Chinese government’s claims? Should the US government ask for evidence to verify these claims or should it just mind its own business as the Chinese almost assuredly believe it will?

PS: Here is a more in-depth article by Weitz’s discussing Russia, China, and the US’s interests and areas for competition/cooperation in Central Asia: “Averting a New Great Game in Central Asia”