Afghanistan and Central Asia

Johannes F. Linn, a former World Bank vice president for Europe and Central Asia and current Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, recently made an extended visit to the region and has written a series of assessments on key issues facing the region. Today, I would like to discuss two pieces in this series in which Linn tackles CA’s water issues in great detail.

‘The Impending Water Crisis in Central Asia: An Immediate Threat‘: In this piece Linn layouts the region’s modern water history and current and coming water ‘crisis.’ On this site we have already discussed how the harsh winter combined with the current drought has cost the region’s energy and water sectors to be under great strain and how this has a dramatic impact on the region’s population, especially its poor. Linn argues that the region is in for a difficult year ahead, comparing its last major drought in 2000-2001, and that situation could quickly deteriorate into a ‘major humanitarian, economic and political crisis.’ This piece concentrates on Tajikistan’s dire situation, with Linn concerned that the upcoming winter may see seven million Tajik citizens with little or no electricity.

Linn highlights the complicated dance between the region’s countries, with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan upstream and therefore controlling nations and Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan as downstream nations depending on Kyrg and Tajik for water flows from the Amu Darya, Syr Darya, and Kambarata rivers and waterways. He reports that cross-border disputes along Tajik-Kyrg and Kyrg-Uzbek borders had flared up between March and May. The region’s states also failed to come to an agreement over water management during a June 27-28 conference in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, where Uzbekistan refused to accept Kyrg’s water discharge offer for the coming year.

The situation is very complicated and if you want to get a full picture of the region’s potential coming ‘crisis’ I suggest you read both of Linn’s pieces. So what should the region’s governments and international community do to stop or at least moderate these water/energy issues? Linn offers four steps for regional governments and the international community:

1. Conduct an ‘expert assessment’ of the Central Asian water adn energy shortage and its impact immediately. In other words, find out what the heck is going on.

2. Based on the above assessment, regional governments and international agencies should ‘plan emergency responses.’

3. The UN, international financial institutions, EU, China, Russia, and the US should use diplomatic mechanisms to make sure that the region’s water and energy problems do not develop into ‘open conflict.’ This is crucial.

4. An assessment of the region’s long-term prospects of water and energy balances, with an emphasis on the effect of climate change.

‘Water-Energy Links in Central Asia: A Long-Term Opportunity and Challenge‘: Linn’s second piece goes into more details about region’s dam and irrigation systems, specifically Tajikistan’s Rogun Dam.  Linn posits three options concerning the allocation of region’s transnational water resources:

A. Downstream countries (Uzbek, Kazak, Turkmen) could pay upstream countries (Kyrgf and Tajik) for the summer release of water stored in the winter, as was practiced in the Soviet-ruled days.

B.  Downstream countries could build dams and reservoirs on their territories to catch the waters released by the upstream countries during the winters for summer use.  Linn discusses how this has already been tried and has its setbacks.

C. (Linn’s optimal choice) Build dams and reservoirs along the same river or river system in sequence or as ‘cascades.’  Linn argues this would ‘allow the release of water from the higher reservoir for electricity generation in winter, but catching and storing the water in the subsequent reservoir for summer release.’

I am no expert on this subject, but Linn’s recommendations do seem to make sense, especially because he acknowledges the importance of creating a mechanism for the region’s states to work out these policies together, for if they cannot work together none of his recommendations would come to fruition.  In this regard, Linn suggests the creation of a ‘consortium of partners,’ which include all directly affected countries, regional powers (China and Russia), and international financial partners to help with funding the dams and power plants.

I will keep an eye on Linn and the Brookings Institution’s future pieces about important issues facing Central Asia.

Here are a few interesting items to keep you cool this weekend.

The Central Asia plus Japan Dialogue fourth representational level meeting took place in Tashkent on July 15. For Japan the meeting was ‘aimed to deepen the multifaceted interaction with Central Asia and Uzbekistan, provide for stability and regional security, enhance the trade and economic relations.’

The US Senate confirmed General Petraeus as the chief of Middle East and Central Asia Central Command last week. I guess this is kind of important, right? Petraeus replaces Admiral William Fallon, who stepped down a couple months ago (rumored to be because of policy differences with the Bush Administration regarding Iran policy), and will be replaced by Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno as the lead military man in Iraq.

Not sure how big this story may get, but Stephen Payne, a Houston businessman and GOP activist, is now under a House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform investigation, probing whether he violated federal law by suggesting he could arrange access to top White House officials for Kyrg government officials, including President Akayev, in return for large donations to the Bush presidential library. There is a recorded video of Payne and Akayev meeting and discussing meetings with President Bush and VP Cheney in exchange for hundreds of thousands of dollars to the library.

I wrote a short exert about the passing of Kyrg author/ambassador Chinghiz Aitmatov, and now here’s a sad story from Eurasia.net discussing Aitmatov accomplishments and Kyrgyzstan’s lack of an ability to produce another influential writer or artist.

I am originally a California boy, but I had no idea the northern California city of Fremont had a significant Afghan population, which according to this interesting story, it does!  The piece discusses a local book club called ‘One Book, One Community‘ which recommended its readers check out ‘Three Cups of Tea,” the true story of Greg Mortenson’s travels and charity work in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Apparently, Mortenson was saved by a group of villagers in Pakistan after fallin g from K2 in the Himalyas, and decided to show his appreciation by building schools in remote parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan (now I just hope the Taliban doesn’t burn them all down). Anyways, the city of Fremont and even its mayor have taken on this mission and started donating to the cause themselves.

Freedom House put two new reports out in June of interest: Nations in Transit 2008 Annual Report and Supporting Freedom’s Advocates?: An Analysis of the Bush Administration FY2008 Budget Request for Democracy and Human Rights (Follow the link down the page and download the pdf under ‘Past Reports’) These reports are linked in an unfortunate way, the decreasingly open and democratic nature of Central Asia’s regime is key to both of them.

The Nations in Transit report ‘measures progress and setbacks in democratization in 29 countries and administrative areas from Central Europe to the Eurasian region of the Former Soviet Union.’ In its overall analysis of the former Soviet States, specifically in Central Asia, the report stated; ‘In distinct contrast to the trajectories of the other regions, the former Soviet Union has moved toward a more deeply anchored authoritarian, democratic accountability is an ever-scarcer commodity.’ Dierdre Tynan of Eurasianet.org gives an overview and analysis of the report’s findings here.

The Transit report grades each country from 1-7, with 1 being the most free, on 8 different categories and then assigns a overall score. The categories are: 1. Electoral Process 2. Civil Society 3. Independent Media 4. Governance 5. National Democratic Governance 6. Local Democratic Governance 7. Judicial Framework and Independence 8. Corruption. In a sadly similar formula to last year’s Freedom of the World rankings for Central Asia, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan’s scores could hardly get lower, ranking near the bottom of the world, 6.93 and 6.86 disrespectfully. Kyrgyzstan received the best score in the region, 5.93, with Freedom House calling its 2005 upheaval now a time of ‘lost promise.’ Tajikistan’s score worsened from 5.96 to 6.07, with Freedom House stating that ‘justice is bought and sold’ in the nation.

Concerning the analysis of the Bush Administration’s FY2009 Budget Request for Democracy and Human Rights, Deirdre Tynan also wrote up another overview and critique (I haven’t had time yet to read FH whole report). Tynan reports that FH is disappointed in the President’s proposed budget for two critical reasons; 1. A lack of transparency as to where exactly the money where go, for instance to help civil society, rule of law? 2. Though the budget request increased overall, funds for most Central Asian states fell. The report argues that the US government needs to put more funds in developing the civil society of the region, particularly Kazakhstan, and has harsh words for Russia’s presence in the region, calling it a ‘negative influence over its former Soviet neighbors’ and as sliding evermore ‘towards increased autocracy.’ Freedom House leaves out hope that Congress will put the money back in when they have an opportunity to appropriate funds.

I couldn’t agree more with Freedom House about greater transparency in the appropriation of these funds, we should know where and to whom they are going. And I am more than sympathetic to their promotion of greater aid to support Central Asia’s civil society, independent media, and promotion of the rule of law and free and fair elections, but there are indeed strategic elements to consider, such as energy supplies and the fact that we need to work with these authoritative leaders at time on issues such as Afghanistan’s security. To leaders like, Islam Karimov, Berdymukhamedov, and Nazarbayev this money is aimed at their removal from power and that can’t sit too well, not to mention that China and Russia both see it as an affront to their regional interests and influence.

However, in the end, these are two informative, important, and brave reports by Freedom House.

Two interconnected, disturbing trends concerning Islamic militants from Central Asia committing violent and terrorist acts in and around the Afghanistan/Pakistan border are becoming more visible by the day. The first is the report from unidentified two US senior military officials based in the Middle East that Al Qaeda has stepped up its recruitment in Central Asia in the past two years and has found success recruiting children.

CBS News reported on this late last week and stated that Al Qaeda and other militant groups in Pakistan’s tribal areas have had success bringing in new, younger members to replace their casulties. Last May, a Pakistani military official showed CBS a video of young boy, possibly 12, chopping off the head of a middle-aged tribal man who they accused of being an American spy. The video below shows militant/terrorist training of children in Iraq:

The two US military officials assert that Al Qaeda and Taliban-associated groups were recruiting in Central Asian states, mainly Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, because there was ‘too much pressure’ on them in the Afghan/Pak border by US and international forces. One official stated that there was ‘one big advantage’ to recruiting in CA, ‘there is less focus by the US.’ The officials believe that there have been hundreds of cases of successful recruiting of Central Asian boys in the past two years.

Not all the militants coming from Central Asia to the Afghan/Pakistan war front are boys or recruits. In another disturbing trend, the Pakistani government has acknowledged the increasing presence of members of Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) in their border lands. Prime Minister Gilani confirmed reports that there are hundreds of IMU militants ‘holed up’ in Pakistin’s tribal belt committing violence against US/NATO/Afghan forces and within Pakistan’s tribal groups as well. The IMU have been strongly linked to Al Qaeda and the Taliban and there have even been reports that the group has picked a fight with certain local Pashtun tribes, assassinating tribal leaders loyal to the Pakistani government. Experts believe that there may be as many as 500 IMU militants around the border.

At the moment, the Pakistani government seems to have a hands-off approach to the foreigners, hoping the local Pashtun tribes will send them packing. Unfortunately, some of these tribes, like ones led by militant leader Baitullah Mehsud, find the IMU militants as allies in their fight against the Pakistani and US/Afghani governments. Lastly, here is a great analysis comparing the IMU and a similar Islamic militant group also based out of Uzbekistan, Islamic Jihad Union. It also discusses the IMU, and for that matter the IJU’s, presence in Afghan/Pak border area and the groups recent use of suicide bombing as a major tool in their arsenal. The report acknowledges the importance of Uzbekistan’s oppressive government as a cause of IMU and IJU’s birth and existence and how the Karimov regime in turn uses their presence to further tighten his leadership and power in order to defend his nation’s national security and safety. The analysis is told from a European perspective and charts these two militant groups recent past and possible futures.

In the next few days, I will discuss more deeply the tribal politics around the Afghan/Pakistan border that have now become one of the most dangerous and important security situations for the entire globe, as the most recent Taliban attack on a US base in Kunar Province, killing 9 American soldiers, attests.

Russian President Dmitri Medvedev has made his second visit to Central Asia, this time stopping by Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan for the second time. Gas was apparently the only thing on the diplomatic menu. Medvedev and his Gazprom officials are wary of European and Chinese influence and engagement in the region’s energy resources, a sphere Russia has dominated for years, and this trip’s purpose appears to keep that monopoly intact.

Medvedev first went to Baku, Azerbaijan and reportedly told the nation that it was willing to buy up all of its Caspian Sea and land gas to keep it from heading to Europe via the BTC pipeline already functioning, or the Trans-Caspian and Nabucco pipelines in discussions right now. This would be a tall order for Medvedev to accomplish, as Azerbaijan has been courted by the West and strategically faced that way for some years now.

Immediately after this visit the Russian president visited Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan before heading off to the G-8 summit. Russia/Gazprom already dominate gas flow from these two states, but it faces growing competition from Europe and China and therefore wants to solidify its position. Last December, Russia and these two states agreed to build a new pipeline a while later Russia agreed to up its price for their energy resources, both moves to hurt Europe/China’s chances of getting in ‘on the game.’ The purpose of this recent visit also appears to be for Russia to buy up as much of the two nation’s gas as possible in order to stifle any deals the states would make with the EU/China and India for that matter. Russia’s energy policy is not one of just paranoia, as China has just announced the start of construction of a huge, 30 billion cubic meter natural gas pipeline transversing from Turkmenistan, through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, and ending in its own Xinjiang Province and EU representatives are in serious talks with Turkmen officials about the Trans-Caspian and Nabucco pipelines.

(Photo: Medvedev with Azerbaijan President Aliyev: Source Asianews.it)

Weeks back we discussed the media rollback within the Central Asia states, emphasized in a report by Freedom House, and last week I quickly mentioned a World’s Association of Newspapers report that also painted a bleak picture of media rights in CA. Today I have two stories that further showcase the region’s not only lack of media freedom, but also an outright battle against it by the region’s state governments. I also have another story that though has a positive slant, still portrays the region’s free press weaknesses.

Radio Free Europe reports on the story of Avas Saipov and his search for the murderers of his son, Journalist Alisher Saipov, who was murdered last October leaving his Kyrgyzstan office. Avas blames the Karimov government and Kyrg government for the attack and demands justice. He claims the murder was politically motivated because of Alisher’s journalistic work on corruption between the Kyrg and Uzbek governments and the upcoming December of 2007 presidential election for Karimov. Alisher also reported on human rights violations against Muslims in Ferghana Valley, interviewed members of banned religious groups like Hizb ut-Tahrir and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, looked into the 2005 Andijon incident in Uzbekistan and even visited a refugee camp holding some of its victims. These are all issues and stories that the Karimov and other CA state governments want kept either in the shadows or at least under their control so it is no wonder Alisher came under some heat. Avas, the journalist’s father, stated ‘Why were they interested in this {his work}? Because they did not like the truth.’ Sometimes it’s that simple. At the end of the article, there are three short listings of Kyrg and Uzbek government transgressions curbing media rights and targeting Radio Free Europe journalists.

Internet Freedom

The independent websites of Fergana.ru, uznews.net, and ‘Uzbekistan’s Civil Society’ have all placed a special emblem (above left) on their homepages which says ‘This Site Is Blocked in Uzbekistan.’ They are calling on other Uzbek government banned websites to join their anti-censorship campaign ‘to demonstrate how many news websites are inaccessible in the country.’ Radio Free Europe reports that ever since the 2005 Andijon incidents, the Uzbek government has held a tight lid on all Uzbek Internet service, including blocking websites of all opposition groups and indepenent media outlets. Reporters Without Borders puts Uzbek and Turkmenistan on their short list of world’s greatest ‘Internet Enemies’ for good reason. What these websites are doing will not bring down any autocratic government or release press freedom in these countries by itself, but they valuable stances of freedom and showcases of tyranny that will be crucial in the long run in spreading freedom and openness in Central Asia and in the world. When you see tyranny, do not let it go unnoticed.

Speaking of Turkmenistan, the Associated Press reports that its government has begun to allow private citizens to connect to the Internet, connecting about 20 homes a day, mainly in the capital Ashgabat. Before only government, diplomatic officials and major international companies could use the Internet. Before we start celebrating, it is still unclear just how many Turks can afford to pay for the service and if the government will really offer it the general population. It is also dubious to think that many websites will not be banned. But all in all, this has to be considered a welcome move from a government that just years before had a media that was strictly concentrated on and by one person, former President Niyazov.

(Photo: Radio Free Europe)

Here in the United States, the world’s largest and in many ways most dynamic economy, everyday we open the morning papers lately just to see one more sign that our economy is in trouble; credit crisis, stimulus packages, unemployment, gas/oil prices, food prices, a movie in New York City costs $12.00! America is not alone as the nations of Central Asia face an even more dire situation. Even though some of their governments are reaping the rewards of ever-climbing energy prices, all are suffering from a weak world economy, less foreign investment in areas beyond energy, a harsh winter, and rising inflation, especially in regards to food. Here are two stories that showcase the difficult times for the region’s citizens.

A. Locust Invasion- Moroccan locusts have flown into the region from Afghanistan all the way to Kazakhstan and are making an already tenuous food situation much worse. Locusts affect crops in the region every year, but this year is worse than usual and when combined with a harsh winter that took a toll on farm and livestock productive and already high food prices, the region’s poor will most likely suffer even more. This insect invasion also portrays a region largely without the resources to combat such an occurrence, as most of the CA states cannot afford pesticides which could curb some of the locusts damage.

Infestation Statistics (estimated)

Tajikistan - 220,000 hectares of farmland

Kyrgyzstan - 50,000 hectares

Kazakhstan - 200,000 hectares

Uzbekistan - no reported damage

Afghanistan/Iran - damage, but level unknown

B. Education=No Job?!

Farangis Najibullah reports for Radio Free Europe on the region’s failure to provide adequate employment/careers for its college graduates.  The story starts with the story of Mirodil, an Uzbek who graduated from high school and immediately became a migrant worker in Kazakhstan because of the lack of opportunity in his home province Andijon.  Najibullah reports that though many CA states have built or opened universities recently, the number of high school graduates enrolling in them has dropped every year.  For instance, in Uzbek’s Samargand Province, only 12% of their high school grads applied to university.  The main impediment for this is the fact that many college graduates in the region fail to find professional employment in their respected fields and a sufficient salary to go along with it.  Therefore, citizens are choosing not to pay the exam fees (corrupt bribes) and spend years in the classroom, and instead are finding construction, farming, and market jobs in comparatively wealthy Russia or Kazakhstan.  It is easier said than done, but these states need to find jobs for these educated citizens.

On May 22, new Russian President Dmitri Medvedev made his first foreign diplomatic visit of his term to Astana, Kazakhstan. This gesture shows to the Astana’s government, China, US, and the world that Russia sees great importance in its relations with this CA/CIS power, but also the region as a whole. Medvedev stated; “Astana did not become the first foreign capital that I have visited as president of Russia by chance. The main thing is that Russia values the genuinely friendly and mutually-advantageous relations with Kazakhstan, our strategic partner.” Kazak President Nazarbayev went even further, calling the two nations bilateral links tighter than those of any other two states on earth.

So what was accomplished during this meeting between such good buddies? They signed a joint declaration designating the Commonwealth of Independent States as the main forum for cooperation, with Medvedev stating that the strengthening of the CIS was a major Russian priority. However, the joint declaration did not specify much else regarding energy or security measures, though there were major rumors that a new gas deal was to be signed doubling the capacity of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. The two nations energy relationship may be a bit strained at the moment considering that just a few weeks before Kazak government ratified a deal to export oil through the Western-backed Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. Concerning economic deals, the two sides agreed to draw up a new economic cooperation blueprint to replace the existing one and Medvedev stated ‘We speak one economic language.’ However, Kazak’s deal with BTC proves that Kazak has other ideas when it comes to energy. Even so, this visit means much regarding the two’s close relationship and though both sides will never get exactly what they want, Russia complete CA domination, and Kazak a freer voice in its energy and security dealings, much can be gained from closer ties.

Another important aspect about this visit is what it means to the other CA states, specifically Kazak’s rival for regional powerhouse, Uzbekistan. It was just eight years ago, when a newly appointed Russian president named Vladimir Putin decided to visit Tashkent as his first official foreign venture. Radio Free Europe published a piece arguing that Medvedev’s trip to Astana instead signifies a changing of the guard of sorts, as Kazak’s rising economic and strategic power currently outweighs Uzbekistan’s. The article asserts that Astana’s President Nazabayev is more stable and predictable leader who never left Russia’s side in any major dispute, while painting a picture of Uzbek’s Karimov as being less stable and more willing to court the West and to a large degree this is true. As Kazak’s new BTC deal exemplifies, Nazarbayev can have a flexible and multi-centered foreign policy and relations, but he has used greater nuance and kept Russia satisfied throughout his nearly 20 year run, well on the other hand Uzbek’s Karimov has had at times strained relations with its former sovereign.

What does Russia’s visit to Kazakhstan mean to Central Asia as a whole? What does it mean for Kazakhstan? Russia? Uzbekistan? Medvedev visited Beijing and met with President Hu for two straight days right after his trip to Astana. What does this mean to/for the CA?

Good morning friends, today I would just like to give an update on upcoming or recently passed regional conferences and cooperation in the CA.

1. The 6th Annual Almaty Conference “Central Asia: State and Prospects of Regional Cooperation” will be hosted in surprise, Almaty, Kazakhstan on June 11. The conference is organized by the Ebert Fund and First Kazakh President’s Fund and will be attended by both regional experts from many analytical centers in Kazakhstan, other CA states, Europe, Russia, and China and diplomatic mission representatives from many of these states. All that was stated was that a ‘wide range of issues’ about the ’state and prospects’ of CA regional cooperation planned to be discussed.

2. Currently, Almaty is also hosting a subregional seminar on environmental impact assessment for CA and Azerbaijan from June 3-5. Representatives of environmental protection departments, international and social organizations, mass media will participate in the event. The CA region has many pressing environmental concerns at the moment from hydroelectric power supply to locust invasions.

3. Tashkent, Uzbekistan hosted an international conference on “Security and stability in Central Asia in the Context of Political and Economic Modernization” from May 29-30. The government of Uzbekistan along with many European organizations hosted and put on the event which focused on stability, security, and socioeconomic issues in Afghanistan and the region as a whole. Uzbek President Karimov appeared to be the star of the show and discussed his plan’s on making Afghanistan a more stable and functioning state.

4. Lastly, Tajik President Rahmon and Kazak Head of State Nazarbayev, during a recent diplomatic visit, voiced their approval (with Kyrgyzstan also backing) of forming a Central Asian Union. We have discussed this possibility before and the fact that it faces many hurdles, especially Uzbekistan’s outright refusal and a wary Russia as well. Still, Kazakhstan desires more influence in this region to match its growing economic power and leading a CA regional cooperation grouping would certainly help it achieve this goal.

Here’s a story, in fact really a series of events, in which I have not heard much about. The governments of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and even resource-poor Tajikistan have led many ‘urban renewal’ projects in their respective capitals and major cities. This makes sense in many ways as most of these states are receiving large profits from energy deals and desire to update their out of style, possibly dilapidated, Soviet buildings and infrastructure, but they apparently are going about this process in the way they do nearly everything, without the consent of their own people.

In all of these states, Farangis Najibullah reports that their renovation projects have unfairly and without due process removed thousands from their homes, pushing many of them into the homes of relatives, sharing small flats, and even into homelessness. The governments desire to create fancy apartment buildings and office space and to make room they need these people out of the way. Some offer financial or land compensation, but in most cases it is not enough.

In fact in Dushanbe, Tajikistan displaced residents must prove they are below the official poverty line to receive compensation, unfortunately the poverty line for a family is less than $6 a month! It goes without saying that virtually no Tajiks receive this reimbursement. Also in Dushanbe, residents who lose their home are entitled to a piece of land, but the land is part of a desert wasteland outside of the city and they are given no money or construction materials in which they could actually build a house. These people can not turn to their government for help, and must rely on family and friends for shelter.

Last April, two protests were held against the government by those who had lost their homes. In one case a group of women were arrested, let go, and told never to protest again. Apparently, there was a protest that turned violent in Almaty, Kazakhstan two years ago against the demolition of housing and that several Almaty residents have gone on hunger strikes to draw publicity to their plight, but Najibullah reports they were ‘ignored by city officials.’

Cities and capitols should modernize and improved infrastructure is a positive thing, but the way these authoritarian CA leaders go about it is the ’same old song and dance’ with their citizens. The citizens of these nations need a voice, a place to go to have their feelings and opinions heard, and these governments fail to provide this and this is a tragedy.

Comments: If you have comments/opinions/questions please post them or email me. I will do my best to get your comments posted or questions answered as soon as possible. Thanks.