Central Asia

Freedom House put two new reports out in June of interest: Nations in Transit 2008 Annual Report and Supporting Freedom’s Advocates?: An Analysis of the Bush Administration FY2008 Budget Request for Democracy and Human Rights (Follow the link down the page and download the pdf under ‘Past Reports’) These reports are linked in an unfortunate way, the decreasingly open and democratic nature of Central Asia’s regime is key to both of them.

The Nations in Transit report ‘measures progress and setbacks in democratization in 29 countries and administrative areas from Central Europe to the Eurasian region of the Former Soviet Union.’ In its overall analysis of the former Soviet States, specifically in Central Asia, the report stated; ‘In distinct contrast to the trajectories of the other regions, the former Soviet Union has moved toward a more deeply anchored authoritarian, democratic accountability is an ever-scarcer commodity.’ Dierdre Tynan of Eurasianet.org gives an overview and analysis of the report’s findings here.

The Transit report grades each country from 1-7, with 1 being the most free, on 8 different categories and then assigns a overall score. The categories are: 1. Electoral Process 2. Civil Society 3. Independent Media 4. Governance 5. National Democratic Governance 6. Local Democratic Governance 7. Judicial Framework and Independence 8. Corruption. In a sadly similar formula to last year’s Freedom of the World rankings for Central Asia, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan’s scores could hardly get lower, ranking near the bottom of the world, 6.93 and 6.86 disrespectfully. Kyrgyzstan received the best score in the region, 5.93, with Freedom House calling its 2005 upheaval now a time of ‘lost promise.’ Tajikistan’s score worsened from 5.96 to 6.07, with Freedom House stating that ‘justice is bought and sold’ in the nation.

Concerning the analysis of the Bush Administration’s FY2009 Budget Request for Democracy and Human Rights, Deirdre Tynan also wrote up another overview and critique (I haven’t had time yet to read FH whole report). Tynan reports that FH is disappointed in the President’s proposed budget for two critical reasons; 1. A lack of transparency as to where exactly the money where go, for instance to help civil society, rule of law? 2. Though the budget request increased overall, funds for most Central Asian states fell. The report argues that the US government needs to put more funds in developing the civil society of the region, particularly Kazakhstan, and has harsh words for Russia’s presence in the region, calling it a ‘negative influence over its former Soviet neighbors’ and as sliding evermore ‘towards increased autocracy.’ Freedom House leaves out hope that Congress will put the money back in when they have an opportunity to appropriate funds.

I couldn’t agree more with Freedom House about greater transparency in the appropriation of these funds, we should know where and to whom they are going. And I am more than sympathetic to their promotion of greater aid to support Central Asia’s civil society, independent media, and promotion of the rule of law and free and fair elections, but there are indeed strategic elements to consider, such as energy supplies and the fact that we need to work with these authoritative leaders at time on issues such as Afghanistan’s security. To leaders like, Islam Karimov, Berdymukhamedov, and Nazarbayev this money is aimed at their removal from power and that can’t sit too well, not to mention that China and Russia both few it as an affront to their regional interests and influence.

However, in the end, these are two informative, important, and brave reports by Freedom House.

Two interconnected, disturbing trends concerning Islamic militants from Central Asia committing violent and terrorist acts in and around the Afghanistan/Pakistan border are becoming more visible by the day. The first is the report from unidentified two US senior military officials based in the Middle East that Al Qaeda has stepped up its recruitment in Central Asia in the past two years and has found success recruiting children.

CBS News reported on this late last week and stated that Al Qaeda and other militant groups in Pakistan’s tribal areas have had success bringing in new, younger members to replace their casulties. Last May, a Pakistani military official showed CBS a video of young boy, possibly 12, chopping off the head of a middle-aged tribal man who they accused of being an American spy. The video below shows militant/terrorist training of children in Iraq:

The two US military officials assert that Al Qaeda and Taliban-associated groups were recruiting in Central Asian states, mainly Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, because there was ‘too much pressure’ on them in the Afghan/Pak border by US and international forces. One official stated that there was ‘one big advantage’ to recruiting in CA, ‘there is less focus by the US.’ The officials believe that there have been hundreds of cases of successful recruiting of Central Asian boys in the past two years.

Not all the militants coming from Central Asia to the Afghan/Pakistan war front are boys or recruits. In another disturbing trend, the Pakistani government has acknowledged the increasing presence of members of Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) in their border lands. Prime Minister Gilani confirmed reports that there are hundreds of IMU militants ‘holed up’ in Pakistin’s tribal belt committing violence against US/NATO/Afghan forces and within Pakistan’s tribal groups as well. The IMU have been strongly linked to Al Qaeda and the Taliban and there have even been reports that the group has picked a fight with certain local Pashtun tribes, assassinating tribal leaders loyal to the Pakistani government. Experts believe that there may be as many as 500 IMU militants around the border.

At the moment, the Pakistani government seems to have a hands-off approach to the foreigners, hoping the local Pashtun tribes will send them packing. Unfortunately, some of these tribes, like ones led by militant leader Baitullah Mehsud, find the IMU militants as allies in their fight against the Pakistani and US/Afghani governments. Lastly, here is a great analysis comparing the IMU and a similar Islamic militant group also based out of Uzbekistan, Islamic Jihad Union. It also discusses the IMU, and for that matter the IJU’s, presence in Afghan/Pak border area and the groups recent use of suicide bombing as a major tool in their arsenal. The report acknowledges the importance of Uzbekistan’s oppressive government as a cause of IMU and IJU’s birth and existence and how the Karimov regime in turn uses their presence to further tighten his leadership and power in order to defend his nation’s national security and safety. The analysis is told from a European perspective and charts these two militant groups recent past and possible futures.

In the next few days, I will discuss more deeply the tribal politics around the Afghan/Pakistan border that have now become one of the most dangerous and important security situations for the entire globe, as the most recent Taliban attack on a US base in Kunar Province, killing 9 American soldiers, attests.

Tajikistan, already one of the world’s poorest nations, has suffered much this year with a harsh winter, continuing health concerns, and with rising food prices.  But the worse could be yet to come as its President Rahmon’s rule appears to be showing some cracks and news reports about the country have titles such as ‘Who’s in Charge’ and ‘Tajikistan is not in control.’  Not that President Rahmon has gone out of his way to help his people or been at least an ‘organized’ autocrat, but the violent battle for power or overthrow of his rule could send the nation into greater chaos.

Two reports exemplify Rahmon’s weakening power; the strange disappearance of Khasan Sadulloyev, one of the nation’s most powerful business men and the President’s brother-in-law, and the government led attack on the Langariyevs’ household, who had fought ’side by side’ with Rahmon against the Islamic opposition during Tajik’s civil war in the 1990s. These instances seem to portray a government on its heels, trying to eliminate ‘enemies’ and possible power challengers.  Eurasianet.org calls the Sadulloyev incident a sign of presidential ‘dysfunction’ and a leader who does not have control over his own power circle.  The article references the fall of Kyrg’s President Askar Akayev in 2005 as a possible outcome for the Tajik leader.

In other, more positive Tajik news, Kazakhstan’s government has pledged to help build and finance Tajik’s much needed and sought after Rogun Dam project and Rahmon has stated that an ‘international consortium‘ would also help the impoverished nation get the dam operating within 4 1/2 years.  The dam would provide much needed electricity for the nation and the region as well.

Tajik’s Foreign Minister Khamrokhon Zarifi met with US Undersecretary of State for South and Central Asian George A. Krol on June 16 and discussed a ‘broad spectrum’ of issues concerning US-Tajik relations and agreed that the 4th meeting of the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) would ‘become another major step towards development of regional trade and economic cooperation.’  TIFA is between the US-CA states and promotes the expansion of trade and investments in the region through the involvement of customs procedures in international standards.  US soft power one might say.

Here in the United States, the world’s largest and in many ways most dynamic economy, everyday we open the morning papers lately just to see one more sign that our economy is in trouble; credit crisis, stimulus packages, unemployment, gas/oil prices, food prices, a movie in New York City costs $12.00! America is not alone as the nations of Central Asia face an even more dire situation. Even though some of their governments are reaping the rewards of ever-climbing energy prices, all are suffering from a weak world economy, less foreign investment in areas beyond energy, a harsh winter, and rising inflation, especially in regards to food. Here are two stories that showcase the difficult times for the region’s citizens.

A. Locust Invasion- Moroccan locusts have flown into the region from Afghanistan all the way to Kazakhstan and are making an already tenuous food situation much worse. Locusts affect crops in the region every year, but this year is worse than usual and when combined with a harsh winter that took a toll on farm and livestock productive and already high food prices, the region’s poor will most likely suffer even more. This insect invasion also portrays a region largely without the resources to combat such an occurrence, as most of the CA states cannot afford pesticides which could curb some of the locusts damage.

Infestation Statistics (estimated)

Tajikistan - 220,000 hectares of farmland

Kyrgyzstan - 50,000 hectares

Kazakhstan - 200,000 hectares

Uzbekistan - no reported damage

Afghanistan/Iran - damage, but level unknown

B. Education=No Job?!

Farangis Najibullah reports for Radio Free Europe on the region’s failure to provide adequate employment/careers for its college graduates.  The story starts with the story of Mirodil, an Uzbek who graduated from high school and immediately became a migrant worker in Kazakhstan because of the lack of opportunity in his home province Andijon.  Najibullah reports that though many CA states have built or opened universities recently, the number of high school graduates enrolling in them has dropped every year.  For instance, in Uzbek’s Samargand Province, only 12% of their high school grads applied to university.  The main impediment for this is the fact that many college graduates in the region fail to find professional employment in their respected fields and a sufficient salary to go along with it.  Therefore, citizens are choosing not to pay the exam fees (corrupt bribes) and spend years in the classroom, and instead are finding construction, farming, and market jobs in comparatively wealthy Russia or Kazakhstan.  It is easier said than done, but these states need to find jobs for these educated citizens.

Good morning friends, today I would just like to give an update on upcoming or recently passed regional conferences and cooperation in the CA.

1. The 6th Annual Almaty Conference “Central Asia: State and Prospects of Regional Cooperation” will be hosted in surprise, Almaty, Kazakhstan on June 11. The conference is organized by the Ebert Fund and First Kazakh President’s Fund and will be attended by both regional experts from many analytical centers in Kazakhstan, other CA states, Europe, Russia, and China and diplomatic mission representatives from many of these states. All that was stated was that a ‘wide range of issues’ about the ’state and prospects’ of CA regional cooperation planned to be discussed.

2. Currently, Almaty is also hosting a subregional seminar on environmental impact assessment for CA and Azerbaijan from June 3-5. Representatives of environmental protection departments, international and social organizations, mass media will participate in the event. The CA region has many pressing environmental concerns at the moment from hydroelectric power supply to locust invasions.

3. Tashkent, Uzbekistan hosted an international conference on “Security and stability in Central Asia in the Context of Political and Economic Modernization” from May 29-30. The government of Uzbekistan along with many European organizations hosted and put on the event which focused on stability, security, and socioeconomic issues in Afghanistan and the region as a whole. Uzbek President Karimov appeared to be the star of the show and discussed his plan’s on making Afghanistan a more stable and functioning state.

4. Lastly, Tajik President Rahmon and Kazak Head of State Nazarbayev, during a recent diplomatic visit, voiced their approval (with Kyrgyzstan also backing) of forming a Central Asian Union. We have discussed this possibility before and the fact that it faces many hurdles, especially Uzbekistan’s outright refusal and a wary Russia as well. Still, Kazakhstan desires more influence in this region to match its growing economic power and leading a CA regional cooperation grouping would certainly help it achieve this goal.

Here’s a story, in fact really a series of events, in which I have not heard much about. The governments of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and even resource-poor Tajikistan have led many ‘urban renewal’ projects in their respective capitals and major cities. This makes sense in many ways as most of these states are receiving large profits from energy deals and desire to update their out of style, possibly dilapidated, Soviet buildings and infrastructure, but they apparently are going about this process in the way they do nearly everything, without the consent of their own people.

In all of these states, Farangis Najibullah reports that their renovation projects have unfairly and without due process removed thousands from their homes, pushing many of them into the homes of relatives, sharing small flats, and even into homelessness. The governments desire to create fancy apartment buildings and office space and to make room they need these people out of the way. Some offer financial or land compensation, but in most cases it is not enough.

In fact in Dushanbe, Tajikistan displaced residents must prove they are below the official poverty line to receive compensation, unfortunately the poverty line for a family is less than $6 a month! It goes without saying that virtually no Tajiks receive this reimbursement. Also in Dushanbe, residents who lose their home are entitled to a piece of land, but the land is part of a desert wasteland outside of the city and they are given no money or construction materials in which they could actually build a house. These people can not turn to their government for help, and must rely on family and friends for shelter.

Last April, two protests were held against the government by those who had lost their homes. In one case a group of women were arrested, let go, and told never to protest again. Apparently, there was a protest that turned violent in Almaty, Kazakhstan two years ago against the demolition of housing and that several Almaty residents have gone on hunger strikes to draw publicity to their plight, but Najibullah reports they were ‘ignored by city officials.’

Cities and capitols should modernize and improved infrastructure is a positive thing, but the way these authoritarian CA leaders go about it is the ’same old song and dance’ with their citizens. The citizens of these nations need a voice, a place to go to have their feelings and opinions heard, and these governments fail to provide this and this is a tragedy.

Comments: If you have comments/opinions/questions please post them or email me. I will do my best to get your comments posted or questions answered as soon as possible. Thanks.

We’ve had a ‘Good News’ blog and another lighthearted one of various links, but the good times are over! Thanks to Freedom House’s newly released Freedom of the Press 2007 Survey, we can put the good feelings behind us as our Central Asian states received bleak, down-trending outlooks. The Survey concluded that Press Freedom was in retreat throughout the world, the six year in a row the Survey concluded this, and that many former Soviet States regressed the most dramatically. In fact, most Central Asian and Caucasus countries received lower grades than last year and Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan garnered ’special’ mention as two of the most media repressed societies in the world. Freedom House’s website has a thorough amalgam of description’s, charts, and analysis of the survey that should not be missed. Also, here is a short description of the Survey’s findings from Eurasianet.org.

Just like Freedom House’s overall Freedom Rankings, in this survey a nation is ranked either Free, Partly Free, or Not Free based on these three categories:

1. Political influence on reporting and access to information

2. Legal environment in which media outlets operate

3. Economic Pressure on content and the dissemination of news

Each nation was ranked on a scale of 0-100, with 100 representing complete government control over mass media, and zero indicating perfect freedom.

Kyrgyzstan- 70, Downward trend, government pressure on public broadcast media affecting the political environment

Turkmenistan- 96, Same score, only Burma and North Korea received a worse score, the report stated ‘the government retained its absolute monopoly over all media, directly controlling not only media outlets, but also the printing presses and other infrastructure’

Uzbekistan- 92, up one point from last year, the report states that Uzbek authorities ’showed no respect for freedom of speech or of the press’

Kazakhstan- 78, two point increase, the report acknowledged widespread government control and the harassment of independent journalists and editors

Tajikistan- 77, the report criticized its treatment of journalists and the introduction of amendments criminalizing libel and defamation on the Internet

An overall poor showing for the whole region.

An ongoing story I came across recently exemplifies the region’s problems with a free and secure media environment. It appears the government of Kazakhstan has blocked Radio Free Europe’s (RFE/RL), an independent news and broadcast organization funded by the US Congress, website. RFE/RL President Jeffrey Gedmin at first thought it might be a technical problem, now, after the Kazak government failed to respond to several inquiries, suggests that this is a case of ‘deliberate interference.’ This shutdown does not only affect Kazak’s population, but the people in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan as KazTelecom, the state telecom operator, is the key Internet service provider across all of CA.

This situation is getting serious as OSCE representative on media freedom, Miklos Haraszti, sent a formal letter to the Kazak government asking why the service has been interrupted and requesting that it be brought back right away. It is important to know that Kazakhstan stands to take over the OSCE Chairmanship in 2010 and has faced much criticism from many human rights group in the West who are against a country with such a poor record holding such an important position. This event is drawing fresh attention to Kazakhstan’s repressive government, no doubt attention it does not desire. Haraszti uses rather strong language in his letter stating;

‘I am convinced that the state Internet service providers were informed by your government that interference in providing service would violate Kazakhstan’s press freedom commitments.’ He adds that OSCE’s Permanent Council Decision No. 633, states that participating states must pledge ‘to take action to ensure that the Internet remains an open and public forum for freedom of opinion and expression.’

As of right now, no Kazak government official has publicly responded to the letter.

In the same report, Turkmenistan’s government was criticized for harassing and intimidating various Radio Free Europe correspondents. In addition, Kyrgyzstan has a new media bill that some argue would crush any positive steps that have been taken since their 2005 popular uprising.

Freedom House’s media survey and these recent events portray a region in the dark and one whose leadership wants to keep it that way.

Just a quick one today folks. If you haven’t checked it out yet, make sure to take a look at the post on May 11 ‘A Autocratic Dawn’, I think it raises an important issue that will and has affected CA and the world.

EurasiaNet has written a scathing report chronicling the Tajikistan government’s voluntary tax request from some of its poorest citizens in order to raise $10 million dollars to finance the Rogun project. The news outlet calls the tax ‘arbitrary’ and ‘confiscatory’ and rightly claims that it will dramatically hurt the poorest of the nation for amounts to a very small percentage of the projects ultimate budget, around $550 million. The people of Tajik deserve better and if this money is raised, the government needs to be transparent of its use, otherwise it will disillusion its populace to an even greater degree.

Kyrgyzistan’s President Bakiyev has provided a one-time compensation payment of $14,600 to 72 children and their families, who were accidentally infected with the AIDS virus in two southern Kyrg hospitals, because of what has been asserted as medical personnel negligence. This is a tragic way for progress to be spurred, but hopefully this is a sign that the Kyrg government is going to start taking HIV/AIDS prevention more seriously.

For all you lucky readers I have a present…Press Conference reports from US State Department officials about ongoing relations with Central Asia! Calm down please.

Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary, Pamela Spratlen (Photo, left) recently made diplomatic visits to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan and in each destination held a press conference.

In Bishkek, she participated in what was called the second Comprehensive Policy Dialogue with Foreign Minister Ednan Karabayev and introduced the Millennium Challenge Corporation Threshold program. Kyrgyzstan, which is the first country in CA to be selected to participate, will receive $16 million dollars to help them reform their judicial, law enforcement, and criminal justice sectors. Spratlen also voiced her disapproval of the Kyrg government’s recent handling of the December 2007 elections, which it still has failed to release the results of, during the press conference. Spratlen also answered questions regarding recent local protests against the US use of the Manas base in the country.

In Dushanbe, Spratlen discussed her meetings with Tajik government officials, civil society, NGOs, and members of the business community and stressed that the questions that were of ’special interest’ to her were regarding development of democratic institutions and civil society, and about economic recovery and growth, specifically concerning the effects of the recently passed harsh winter. A discussion of the security situation in Afghanistan along with questions pertaining to the US use of Uzbekistan’s Termez airbase (she reiterated that ‘it’s not our airbase. It won’t be our airbase.’ Just that ‘our citizens can use it.’) were highlights of the press conference. Lastly, a reporter from the BBC asked her about the recent controversy over Tajik government’s falsification of its finances to the IMF. She answered that the US and the international community were ‘very concerned’ and had ‘lost some of its confidence’ that the Tajik government fully understood all of its responsibilities to the IMF and the needs of its people.

Just over a week ago, Richard Boucher, Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asia (Spratlen’s boss), held a press briefing titled ‘The Year Ahead in South and Central Asia.’ I have actually not had time to read it all the way over so I will hold my comments until next week, but here is a short review of his statements (to no one’s surprise it appears that Afghanistan was a major topic of discussion, but also Indian energy relations in the CA too).

Have a great weekend!

(Photo Source: US State Department Website)

In yet another sign that Turkmenistan is coming out of its isolationist shell, Ashgabat just finished hosting a meeting between the European Union’s Troika and Central Asia’s foreign ministers. The Troika is headed by Slovenian Foreign Minister Dimitrij Rupel, EU External Relations Commissioner Ferrero-Waldner, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, and the EU’s special representative for Central Asia, Pierre Morel. The main premise for the meeting focused on the implementation of EU’s new strategy for Central Asia that includes increasing cooperation between the two regions regarding education, legal norms, economy, trade, energy, drug trafficking, border management, water issues and the environment.

In an interview, EU External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner addressed the diverse agenda of the Troika’s meetings with the CA foreign ministers. She stated that cooperation and relations were ‘growing rapidly’ and discussed ways in which the EU could help the region develop, for instance she emphasized the EU-Central Asia Invest project and how the EU had allocated 314 million euros for regional and bilateral cooperation in the region, along with issues of mutual concern, such as security and energy supplies. Concerning energy, Ferrero-Waldner stated that the diversification of supply and export routes was an important part of the meeting’s agenda.

Andrea Schmitz, a scholar at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin, while acknowledging that the development of an EU-CA energy partnership makes a lot of sense for each side, basically so they each could circumvent Russian influence, accurately argues that this is easier said then done. As of right now, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have nearly all their energy export routes through Russian territory with sizable contracts backing them up. Proposals for alternative gas supple routes have been kicked around for years, yet all pipelines to European markets still flow through Russian territory. Schmitz laments that ‘as long as the EU doesn’t have a common energy policy itself, we won’t have a chance to compete with Russia.’

The EU also faces another hurdle in its energy and strategic dealings with its Central Asian counterparts; its policy of promoting democracy and human rights. Energy, water issues, business dealings were on the table for this meeting and others between the groups, but so were human rights and more open and accountable governmental practices. As Ferrero-Waldner states ‘there will also be the question of human rights, because as you know, human rights are indeed a very important part of our external relations.’ In the aforementioned interview, Ferrero-Waldner responded to several human rights inquiries, specifically regarding Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, and was cautious in her answers, stating that democratization, rule of law, and the development of human rights will ‘take a certain time.’ Concerning Uzbekistan specifically, she stated ‘engagement’ as the best way for the EU to encourage positive developments in furthering these issues.

Unlike CA state dealings with Russia or China, the EU and the United States are held to higher liberal and democratic standards, and even though it can hurt their interests, they bring these ideals to the negotiating table. There is great domestic pressure on US and EU diplomats to push for more open and accountable CA state governments and societies, for example Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch each called on the EU to emphasize human rights progress during this latest summit. The EU and US must perform a complicated dance to further their own strategic and financial interests in CA and at the same time attempt to promote liberal, democratic ideals of governance and society.

In other news, the Chinese government announced yesterday the arrest of 35 people, suspected to be plotting a terrorist attack at the upcoming Beijing Olympics, in Urumqi, the capital of the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region. The authorities stated that they confiscated about 21 pounds (9.5 kg) of explosives, eight detonators, two explosive devices, and some propaganda materials for “holy war.” Authorities stated that the plot, along with a foiled in January, was linked to the terrorist/separatist group the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch each voiced concern over this recent mass arrest, as Chinese authorities failed to provide any direct evidence to the public.