Afghanistan and Central Asia

It’s Friday: must be time for the CAB.  And what a week: there’s no keeping up with this hot zone of geopolitical interest . . . although some states have more news than others.

Central Asia General: 
–All SCO this week, every day.  First, the beginning of a Collective Security Timeline, on a separate page in this blog, for reference.  Stray and random bits of info are welcome: leave a comment and a reference and I’ll put it into the list.
–Nathan Hamm over at Registan.net discusses and gives great references to the study of nomadism as a theory for explaining Central Asian politics, etc–and more importantly, the limits of its use.

Kazakhstan: 
Not a great week for one of my favorite places:
–Rakhat-gate moves to Austria, discussed here yesterday. What a mess.
–With the Kashagan oil field in delayed production, Kazakhstan will not be able to meet new commitments for oil distribution.  This is a problem for Poland, the Ukraine, and the West, since Nazarbaev cannot commit to the Trans-caspian line without the crude to fill it.  News analysts continue to see these things as all-politics.  No, no, no!  It’s a production constraint with political and economic repercussions.  Ihlam Aliev President of Azerbaijan can plead, but if the oil ain’t distributable, it ain’t.  In the meantime, Italy’s ENI, the operator of the field, is facing dismissal by Kazakhstan’s authorities–or at the least–less favorable contract terms.
–Kazakhstan and Jordan strengthen bilateral cooperation, particularly in the realm of agricultural commerce, transportation agreements, and paving the way toward more intimate free trade relationships.  This article also references Egypt-Kazakh relations. 

Kyrgyzstan:
–China’s Hu Jin-tao will visit Kyrgyzstan for the first time ever on August 14th, for SCO summit but also bilateral talks; and thence to Kazakhstan & Russia.
–Global Voices Online rounds up the Kyrgyzstani preparations for the SCO summit, which include beautification and security measures.  It’s not all fun, getting ready for a party.  Mirsulzhan has more on the primping and preening of Bishkek, and other aspects for the locals.
–In the same post, Mirsulzhan details the reactions of Kyrgyzstani bloggers toward Feliks Kulov’s idea of a Kyrgyz-Russia reunification.  It makes one wonder if Mr. Kulov’s has taken a look at Belarus’ plight at the moment.
–Bermet Akaeva is charged again, with a possible 2-year sentence if convicted.  This time, she’s being charged for trying to influence the outcome of the last charge. 
–Bread prices are up, and citizen confidence is down.
–Kyrgyzstan’s farmers are better off than Uzbekistan’s and Turkmenistan’s: not only do they know that the world cotton market has turned to lint, they are refusing to plant the crop.  That is called a rational supplier response to market price–in the U.S. cotton growers are doing the same.  Yet the adjustment for Kyrgyzstan is catastrophic, with 60% of its work force involved in agriculture.

Mongolia:
–An Indian news agency explains Khaan Quest 2007, a military exercise reported in the CAB last week, as a bid for India and the U.S. to keep tabs on China’s space program and other strategic observations.  A Mongolia-India war game immediately follows Khaan Quest 2007: this one is named “Nomadic Elephant.”  Considering previous ties and balance of power theory, one should next expect that Pakistan’s observer status in the SCO might be ramped up to a full membership.  Don’t know that though . . . Pakistan is complicated . . .
–Mongolia’s President Enkhbayar to attend SCO meetings as an observer.

Tajikistan:
–A sign of increasing bilateral regard: The former Iranian Foreign Minister and the first Iranian ambassador to Dushanbe are awarded with Tajikistan’s Peace Prize, for work undertaken during the Tajik Civil War.
–Two former Guantanamo detainees are on trial in Tajikistan for illegal border crossings and “mercenary activity” in Afghanistan.
–In Dushanbe, unlicensed mosques are being razed;

Turkmenistan:
–IWPR discusses grain harvest shortfalls in Turkmenistan.

Uzbekistan:
–Erk opposition party website has been hacked: or censored: or both. . .
–A look at the importance of Iran to Uzbekistani commerce.

Xinjiang:
–Again, yesterday, here: SCO Military exercises began in Xinjiang, and then move this weekend or so to Chelyabinsk.  Chelyabinsk was verboten to foreigners for 30 years–now Chinese troops are lobbing fake bombs and driving tanks in the area.  Amazing.  And–significant. 

Kazakhstan:
–Thirty members of the banned Hizb-ut-Tahrir group go on trial in Kazakhstan for recruitment.  Unlike many such trials in Central Asia at large, it looks as if this trial has caught some leaders of the movement.
–More trouble developing the Kashagan oil field means that production is being pushed back to 2010.  This field has enormous technical difficulties.  As oil prices have risen, Kazakhstan has sought to change contract parameters.
–The Economist’s anonymous weighs in against Kazakhstan’s potential OSCE chairmanship in 2009; and Josh Foust tears apart the poorly written article.  My take: it’s an illogical appeal to the ‘ain’t it awful’ crowd, and unworthy of the E.

Kyrgyzstan:
–It’s all about Feliks: Ex-PM Mr. Kulov has been charged for inciting the April riots in Kyrgyzstan.  He is also gathering signatures to re-integrate Kyrgyzstan with Russia, and makes the counter charge that his indictment is to distract him from his political goals and future career.  Yes, a possible ten years in prison would probably not be good for future political careers. . .
–Kyrgyzstan’s economic growth exceeds that of Russia, at 9.4 percent this year, according to CIS figures reported by Kommersant, Russia’s business periodical.  Go Kyrgyzstan!!! 
–Erica Marat discusses the Japan-Kyrgyzstan connection. 
–Kyrgyzstan is hosting the SCO summit that is coming right up.  I’ll be discussing this at length next week.

Mongolia:
–Amendments to the tax-shelter for Canada’s Centerra gold mines in Mongolia have been agreed to by Centerra officials after the legislature threatened revocation.  The mine was a subject of protests last year.
–Japan and the ADB will assist Mongolia in public service planning.
–Operation Khaan Quest 2007 started August 1 and will continue through August 16th: a military training exercise with the United States, Tonga, the Republic of Korea, Brunei, Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Cambodia will cooperate with Mongolian troops in patrolling, convoying and other military exercises for peacekeeping deployment.  Observer states include the Russian Federation, Japan, Malaysia, and China.

Tajikistan:
–New roads and new trade with China, at Eurasianet.

Turkmenistan:
–More possible gas contracts: France’s Total, and Bouygues are interested; the UAE’s IPIC and US’s Shell are interested.  France’s CIFAL and Tales are interested.  Some of these may be sub-contracts for development; not all will be new finds.
–Turkmenistan will start supplying Tajikistan with electrical power, beginning in October.  This three-year contract for winter months will supply one billion KWh to Tajikistan at 2.1 cents per.

Uzbekistan:
–Pakistan will start a joint venture with Uzbekistan in the production of leather.  Cotton fibre output is down 2.7%.
–India’s Minda, an electronic component manufacturer, is seeking a distribution base in Uzbekistan, in order to service its clients in Eastern Europe.
–Islam-oriented independent newspaper Odam Orasida is shut down by Uzbek authorities.

Xinjiang:
–Locust plague, already reported at FPA Central Asia for Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, is also affecting Xinjiang.  India will be assisting China in arresting the plague.
–The last contingent of China’s military destined for Chelyabinsk for SCO joint military exercises has left Xinjiang today.
–CNPC’s Xinjiang-Lanzhou Pipeline is on-line.  Eventually the pipeline will be joined to other segments of completed pipeline from Kazakhstan.

Iraqi Oil Law: (also at Afghanistan post below):
Tracey-Kay Caldwell of the Iraq Slogger blog and BellaOnline.com interviewed me on the Iraq Oil Law this week. . . check it out!  .

Photo: Annenberg.com

Happy Nadaam, Mongolia!
July 5 is the day that Mongolia overthrew its feudal leaders in 1921. 
And before that, it was a midsummer celebration of the
“Three Manly Sports“:
(archery, horseback riding, and wrestling).

Dateline, Ulaan Bataar:
For the first time in six years, China’s Foreign Minister visited Mongolia from June 30 through July 2, to sign various economic protocols.  The article from the Ulaan Bataar Post is a very interesting read in terms of what is stressed for state protocol: a lot on the ceremonies of mutual respect, and little on the actual protocols signed.  One important note: while Mongolia is officially agreeing with the “one-China” policy in regard to both Taiwan and Tibet, there seems to be considerable  dissent among officials and organized groups, particular in regard to Tibet.

The UB Post also notes that the government may resign today, based upon some politicking between the Democratic Party of Mongolia and the People’s Revolutionary Party.  Reason: The budget was overspent.  No word yet on results.

Military cooperation?
More strengthening of bilateral ties:  According to Xinhuanet, and Xinhuanet alone (at least in English),  Cambodia will be sending 40 members of its military to Mongolia to participate in a humanitarian mission and receive military training.  Thirteen will be military police.  However, I cannot find any humanitarian mission for Mongolia, UN sponsored or otherwise: it could just be a matter of regional cooperation between two states. 

It looks like Russian gas will be going to China via Mongolia-traversing pipelines: After negotiations since at least August 2006, China’s Sinopec has signed a new deal with Russia’s Rosneft.  Until the pipeline is worked out, the oil will ship on the Russian and Mongolian owned Ulan Bator Railway (UBRW).  Russia’s train service has already agreed to ship at a discounted price, but the UBRW is still negotiating the their portion of the tariff discount.

In short, nothing’s concluded, because they’re taking off for the holidays. 

Photos: Photoglobe; Tribune India; Equitour

For the first time, Mongolia’s representative (Nyamaa Enkhbold) attended the EU-based Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM), which is held every two years.  Benito Ferrero-Waldner praised Mongolia’s progress.  New aid in the amount of Euro 17 million (USD 23 million) over the next three years almost doubles the earlier annual aid levels of Euro 3 million.  In addition, Mongolia will enjoy duty-free access to EU markets.

On a less official note, it looks like “the beautiful people” may soon be able to get their very own Mongolian condominium.  Global real estate speculation is on its way.  In general, this kind of investment is built to attract foreign investors who come to the state–and is usually grossly overbuilt, becoming part of the “casino capitalism” in resource booms, and a sign of economic wilt when the boom slows down and the buildings lose occupancy.

To manage this tide, Mongolia needs to check and make explicit some specific zoning laws.  So far, Mongolia’s privatization of public property has been incomplete–in that the issues between traditional economies, individual rights, and income benefits have not been equalled out.  Unfortunately, not everyone who travels overseas wants to immerse themselves in that state’s culture.  The Mongolian government should acknowledge that but also keep it in mind when granting concessions.  Investors also need to beware that boom-and-bust mentality.

In part 1 of this series, I reviewed a joint presentation of The Brookings Institution and UNU on the unequal distribution of wealth under globalizing conditions.  Once again, states are charged with redistributing this income through policy planning and the social contract, and courting investment from other states, international organizations, and most of all, transnational corporations. 

All that policy planning–for what?
In particular, the three concerns for agricultural policy, i.e. , commodity agriculture for export dollars, sustainable food prices for a states’ domestic consumers, and sustainable food prices for a states’ agricultural producers, require an enormous amount of effort and a truly educated approach.  But why?  Why not use those export dollars to buy food and feed the hungry?  The answer lies in how such a method affects income distribution patterns.  Buying food with export dollars means that those who own factors of production such as land continue to benefit, while its workers remain dependent upon a central agency of food aid. 

But even land and market owners should reflect more carefully.  Income patterns not only document current economic health, but also predict further economic growth.  These statistics also predict political stability, no matter what type of government system the state practices.

(more…)

Tsetseegee Munkhbayar received a top award for environmental activism yesterday, for initiating and building the Onggi River Movement.  Mr. Munkhbayar is a self-educated yak herdsman who has insisted upon accountability in Mongolia’s mining industry.

The story has captured international attention and can be found at Taipei Times, al-Jazeera, and elsewhere.

The Goldman Prize Organization web site has some great pictures.

After a week of writing on environmental disaster, I thought it might be fun to consider a global environmental event that doesn’t impinge upon anyone’s social conscience: the long-ago ages of the dinosaurs.

On March 24, 2007, LiveScience reported the finding  of two new species of dinosaurs in Mongolia.  One species ranks “as one of the smallest winged dinosaurs ever discovered.”  The other specimen is a new Dromosaurid dinosaur reminiscent of those in the movie Jurassic Park.

Last year, in another great find, paleontologists found 67 dinosaurs in one area in one day.  These Psittocaurus dinosaurs (aka, the “parrot lizards”) were plant-eating non-raptor dinosaurs, ancestors of Triceratops.  A find of multiple examples allows paleontologists to measure size variations within a species, and perhaps (?) note something about their social habits.  Certainly I am used to the diorama insight of dinosaur life, with one dinosaur per patch of rubber plant in the museum.  The thought of a dinosaur herd, for instance, introduces all kinds of new possibilities for Jurassic Park No. X.

Though many of the bones and fossils from this multiple find will be studied in Bozeman, Montana at Montana State University’s Museum of the Rockies, all of the finds are destined to go to Mongolia’s University of Science and Technology, and perhaps eventually into a museum which will help attract tourism and other paleontologists to Mongolia.  Other paleontological expeditions have taken place in Kazakhstan.

Have a great weekend, everyone.

Illustrations: Dinosauria.com; ZoomDinosaurs.com
Diorama: Natural History Museum of Chandigarh, India

Mongolia’s strong relationship with Japan received a new boost this month when Japan announced a new USD 1.5 million project to aid urban migrants in Bayanhogar, Choyr, and Erdenat.  Mongolia’s population has been urbanizing rapidly.  Many of these new urbanites live in temporary settlements and need employment and business opportunities.  Japan’s new grant provides funds, technical support and guidance for the development of 165 business opportunites.  Its goal is to aid up to 23, 749 households.

Japan’s presence in Central Asia has grown since 1992.  At the breakup of the Soviet Union, Japanese diplomacy within the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) allowed the Central Asian Republics to become eligible for OECD aid initiatives, over U.S. and French objections.  Japan also sponsored the Central Asian republics into the Asian Development Bank (ADB), making Central Asian states the first to belong to more than one regional development bank (the European Bank of Reconstruction & Development (EBRD) as well as the ADB).    Japan has pursued regular opportunities with Central Asia in direct investment and aid initiatives.  In its partnership with Mongolia, however, Japan can also address many diplomatic initiatives in East Asian affairs as well.

Mongolia Web reports that New York’s Lincoln Center Fest will present the Secret History of the Mongols July 22-29, 2007.  Nine musicians and storytellers will perform the work at the Clark Studio Theater.

This passage is from The Secret History of the Mongols:

In time Dobun passed away
and after he was gone Alan the Fair, without a husband,
gave birth to three more sons.
They were named Bughu Khatagi, Bughutu Salji, and Bodonchar the Fool.

The first two sons, Belgunutei and Bugunutei,
talked to each other about this:
“Even though our mother has no brothers or kin here
and now has no husband at all
she’s given birth to three sons.
The only man in her tent is the servant,
. . .
These three must be his children.”

Even though they were careful to say all this out of her sight,
their mother, Alan, could hear them talking about her.
Then one day in the spring,
while boiling soup from dried mutton,
Alan the Fair assembled her five sons together.

She seated them all in a row,
gave them each a shaft of an arrow,
and said to them: “Break it!”

A single arrow shaft,
it took no great strength to break it,
so each of them broke it and tossed it away.

Then she bound together five shafts in a bundle,
and giving the bundle to each in his turn,
said to each of them: “Break it!”

Each of the brothers held the five bound together
and no one could break them.

. . .

Then Alan the Fair spoke to her five sons and gave them this advice:
“You five were all born from one womb.
If, like the five single arrows that you held
you separate yourselves, each going alone,
then each of you can be broken by anyone.
If you are drawn together by a singular purpose
bound like the five shafts in a bundle
how can anyone break you?”