Central Asia

Here in the United States, the world’s largest and in many ways most dynamic economy, everyday we open the morning papers lately just to see one more sign that our economy is in trouble; credit crisis, stimulus packages, unemployment, gas/oil prices, food prices, a movie in New York City costs $12.00! America is not alone as the nations of Central Asia face an even more dire situation. Even though some of their governments are reaping the rewards of ever-climbing energy prices, all are suffering from a weak world economy, less foreign investment in areas beyond energy, a harsh winter, and rising inflation, especially in regards to food. Here are two stories that showcase the difficult times for the region’s citizens.

A. Locust Invasion- Moroccan locusts have flown into the region from Afghanistan all the way to Kazakhstan and are making an already tenuous food situation much worse. Locusts affect crops in the region every year, but this year is worse than usual and when combined with a harsh winter that took a toll on farm and livestock productive and already high food prices, the region’s poor will most likely suffer even more. This insect invasion also portrays a region largely without the resources to combat such an occurrence, as most of the CA states cannot afford pesticides which could curb some of the locusts damage.

Infestation Statistics (estimated)

Tajikistan - 220,000 hectares of farmland

Kyrgyzstan - 50,000 hectares

Kazakhstan - 200,000 hectares

Uzbekistan - no reported damage

Afghanistan/Iran - damage, but level unknown

B. Education=No Job?!

Farangis Najibullah reports for Radio Free Europe on the region’s failure to provide adequate employment/careers for its college graduates.  The story starts with the story of Mirodil, an Uzbek who graduated from high school and immediately became a migrant worker in Kazakhstan because of the lack of opportunity in his home province Andijon.  Najibullah reports that though many CA states have built or opened universities recently, the number of high school graduates enrolling in them has dropped every year.  For instance, in Uzbek’s Samargand Province, only 12% of their high school grads applied to university.  The main impediment for this is the fact that many college graduates in the region fail to find professional employment in their respected fields and a sufficient salary to go along with it.  Therefore, citizens are choosing not to pay the exam fees (corrupt bribes) and spend years in the classroom, and instead are finding construction, farming, and market jobs in comparatively wealthy Russia or Kazakhstan.  It is easier said than done, but these states need to find jobs for these educated citizens.

Good morning friends, today I would just like to give an update on upcoming or recently passed regional conferences and cooperation in the CA.

1. The 6th Annual Almaty Conference “Central Asia: State and Prospects of Regional Cooperation” will be hosted in surprise, Almaty, Kazakhstan on June 11. The conference is organized by the Ebert Fund and First Kazakh President’s Fund and will be attended by both regional experts from many analytical centers in Kazakhstan, other CA states, Europe, Russia, and China and diplomatic mission representatives from many of these states. All that was stated was that a ‘wide range of issues’ about the ’state and prospects’ of CA regional cooperation planned to be discussed.

2. Currently, Almaty is also hosting a subregional seminar on environmental impact assessment for CA and Azerbaijan from June 3-5. Representatives of environmental protection departments, international and social organizations, mass media will participate in the event. The CA region has many pressing environmental concerns at the moment from hydroelectric power supply to locust invasions.

3. Tashkent, Uzbekistan hosted an international conference on “Security and stability in Central Asia in the Context of Political and Economic Modernization” from May 29-30. The government of Uzbekistan along with many European organizations hosted and put on the event which focused on stability, security, and socioeconomic issues in Afghanistan and the region as a whole. Uzbek President Karimov appeared to be the star of the show and discussed his plan’s on making Afghanistan a more stable and functioning state.

4. Lastly, Tajik President Rahmon and Kazak Head of State Nazarbayev, during a recent diplomatic visit, voiced their approval (with Kyrgyzstan also backing) of forming a Central Asian Union. We have discussed this possibility before and the fact that it faces many hurdles, especially Uzbekistan’s outright refusal and a wary Russia as well. Still, Kazakhstan desires more influence in this region to match its growing economic power and leading a CA regional cooperation grouping would certainly help it achieve this goal.

We’ve had a ‘Good News’ blog and another lighthearted one of various links, but the good times are over! Thanks to Freedom House’s newly released Freedom of the Press 2007 Survey, we can put the good feelings behind us as our Central Asian states received bleak, down-trending outlooks. The Survey concluded that Press Freedom was in retreat throughout the world, the six year in a row the Survey concluded this, and that many former Soviet States regressed the most dramatically. In fact, most Central Asian and Caucasus countries received lower grades than last year and Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan garnered ’special’ mention as two of the most media repressed societies in the world. Freedom House’s website has a thorough amalgam of description’s, charts, and analysis of the survey that should not be missed. Also, here is a short description of the Survey’s findings from Eurasianet.org.

Just like Freedom House’s overall Freedom Rankings, in this survey a nation is ranked either Free, Partly Free, or Not Free based on these three categories:

1. Political influence on reporting and access to information

2. Legal environment in which media outlets operate

3. Economic Pressure on content and the dissemination of news

Each nation was ranked on a scale of 0-100, with 100 representing complete government control over mass media, and zero indicating perfect freedom.

Kyrgyzstan- 70, Downward trend, government pressure on public broadcast media affecting the political environment

Turkmenistan- 96, Same score, only Burma and North Korea received a worse score, the report stated ‘the government retained its absolute monopoly over all media, directly controlling not only media outlets, but also the printing presses and other infrastructure’

Uzbekistan- 92, up one point from last year, the report states that Uzbek authorities ’showed no respect for freedom of speech or of the press’

Kazakhstan- 78, two point increase, the report acknowledged widespread government control and the harassment of independent journalists and editors

Tajikistan- 77, the report criticized its treatment of journalists and the introduction of amendments criminalizing libel and defamation on the Internet

An overall poor showing for the whole region.

An ongoing story I came across recently exemplifies the region’s problems with a free and secure media environment. It appears the government of Kazakhstan has blocked Radio Free Europe’s (RFE/RL), an independent news and broadcast organization funded by the US Congress, website. RFE/RL President Jeffrey Gedmin at first thought it might be a technical problem, now, after the Kazak government failed to respond to several inquiries, suggests that this is a case of ‘deliberate interference.’ This shutdown does not only affect Kazak’s population, but the people in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan as KazTelecom, the state telecom operator, is the key Internet service provider across all of CA.

This situation is getting serious as OSCE representative on media freedom, Miklos Haraszti, sent a formal letter to the Kazak government asking why the service has been interrupted and requesting that it be brought back right away. It is important to know that Kazakhstan stands to take over the OSCE Chairmanship in 2010 and has faced much criticism from many human rights group in the West who are against a country with such a poor record holding such an important position. This event is drawing fresh attention to Kazakhstan’s repressive government, no doubt attention it does not desire. Haraszti uses rather strong language in his letter stating;

‘I am convinced that the state Internet service providers were informed by your government that interference in providing service would violate Kazakhstan’s press freedom commitments.’ He adds that OSCE’s Permanent Council Decision No. 633, states that participating states must pledge ‘to take action to ensure that the Internet remains an open and public forum for freedom of opinion and expression.’

As of right now, no Kazak government official has publicly responded to the letter.

In the same report, Turkmenistan’s government was criticized for harassing and intimidating various Radio Free Europe correspondents. In addition, Kyrgyzstan has a new media bill that some argue would crush any positive steps that have been taken since their 2005 popular uprising.

Freedom House’s media survey and these recent events portray a region in the dark and one whose leadership wants to keep it that way.

Just a quick one today folks. If you haven’t checked it out yet, make sure to take a look at the post on May 11 ‘A Autocratic Dawn’, I think it raises an important issue that will and has affected CA and the world.

EurasiaNet has written a scathing report chronicling the Tajikistan government’s voluntary tax request from some of its poorest citizens in order to raise $10 million dollars to finance the Rogun project. The news outlet calls the tax ‘arbitrary’ and ‘confiscatory’ and rightly claims that it will dramatically hurt the poorest of the nation for amounts to a very small percentage of the projects ultimate budget, around $550 million. The people of Tajik deserve better and if this money is raised, the government needs to be transparent of its use, otherwise it will disillusion its populace to an even greater degree.

Kyrgyzistan’s President Bakiyev has provided a one-time compensation payment of $14,600 to 72 children and their families, who were accidentally infected with the AIDS virus in two southern Kyrg hospitals, because of what has been asserted as medical personnel negligence. This is a tragic way for progress to be spurred, but hopefully this is a sign that the Kyrg government is going to start taking HIV/AIDS prevention more seriously.

Just as I opine about a growing autocratic threat to the world liberal system I want to introduce a report by the Brookings Institution analyzing weak states, many of which consist of authoritative leadership. Of course yesterday’s discussion centered on the Great Powers of China and Russia who do not fair prominently on this list, though Russia actually made it in at 65 (the lower the number the weaker the state) which was ahead of both Kyrgyzstan (73) and Kazakhstan (89). Here is the actual report and a summary.

Nathan at Registan.net’s Central Asia News — All Central Asia, All The Time discussed this report a couple weeks ago and highlighted the fact that two of CA’s most oppressive dictatorships, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, faired the worst, ranked 35, 36 respectively. Nathan summarizes the reports stated weakness’s of such regimes as their continuous reshuffling of government officials and that both of these governments pursue foreign policies that mainly only increase the executive power of the state and not the state as a whole.

Nathan finishes his analysis by making the pertinent point that these dictators, Karimov and Berdymukhammedov, feel very insecure and that foreign nation’s policies toward these unstable leaders must take this into account in diplomatic dealings. It would be easy for these leaders to lean in a direction where they feel more secure, and as China and Russia have shown, they are more than willing to forgive these leaders’ transgressions as long as they keep their nation stable and accept their economic and security influence. The West’s task with these types of states is tremendously difficult; they want to help them become more liberal/democratic, share in their economic and strategic resources (such as oil and bases), and have their governments lean in their direction, all at the same time. Attaining all these goals is mammoth endeavor and has shown to be a continual forward and back struggle.

How much influence should a country’s type of leadership affect a state’s (US) policy towards them? Do you agree with the Brookings Report rankings? Do you think that Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, and Russia for that matter, have weak governments?

On a related note, I have discussed Turkmenistan’s recent movements away from Niyazov’s totalitarian regime and the New York Times has jumped in on the discussion. In the article, Professor Eric McGlinchey correctly cautions optimism regarding these changes, warning that the current President, Mr. Berdymukhammedov may be using these transformative polices just to consolidate his own rule in the nation.

No matter how advanced our human civilization becomes, creating and then depending on such things as the Internet and cell phones, life for all humans still comes down to one thing, WATER. Central Asia’s historically harsh winter this past year has put tremendous strains on all parts of life in the region, from households to each state’s own presidential palace have felt its effects. Water is vital to each nation and person because it is the main provider for not only the agricultural industry, but also of electricity.

This recent story personifies the extent of CA’s water problems: Due to the unusually cold winter and the increased use of electricity, largely powered by hydroelectric sources, the government of Tajikistan is ‘requesting’ that all the residents of the nation, one of poorest in the region, give up half of their salaries in May and June to help fund the Rogun dam. This effort would still only put $10 million into a project that is estimated to cost at least $550 million.

The CA region has been a disorganized and its nation’s have failed to unite to solve this region-wide problem ever since the USSR broke down and each of these states came into existence. Joanna Lillis clearly describes the ramifications of the recent difficult winter and how it has caused a new emphasis in the region on getting their water, irrigation system right. She discusses how each CA nation is really only looking out for themselves and how this is causing all to suffer, especially the poorest in each country.

As was discussed earlier on this page, the presidents of Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan made efforts to create a Central Asian Union, which would include a water and energy consortium, a couple weeks ago, but Uzbekistan’s President Karimov quickly put a stop to this idea in his recent visit to Astana; “I want to state right away that this initiative is unacceptable for Uzbekistan.” Uzbekistan, the region’s largest consumer of water, seems to be playing regional power politics with Kazakhstan’s attempt at leading a regional forum, but this does not help in anyway the vital water issues of the region.

Moves have been made however to start to alleviate some of these issues; Kazakhstan will very soon begin its Koksaray reservoir, which will help it contain some of the flooding from water being released from its neighbors, and Kazakhstan’s government and large company Kazkuat, may help pay for Kyrgyzstan’s Kambarta project, which includes two power plants that would cost $2 billion

Kazakhstan is showing their increasing power and political sway in the region by trying to sure up its water and energy needs. These moves are to secure the country the energy and water it needs to help fuel its rising economy, but they should have positive effects throughout the region.

What would truly help solve these water issues would be a regional consortium, for many waterways traverse through all CA nations and what one does affects all others. Lillis advocates using the Eurasian Economic Community as a forum for cooperation, though it does not have Turkmenistan as a member. She discusses a blueprint that is already in place by the EAEC which proposes finding a suitable fuel and energy balance for all countries, attracts financing for Kyrg’s Kambarata project, restoring Soviet principles of irrigation for downstream states (Kazak, Uzbek, Turkmenistan), joint investment in power plants (very important), removing barriers to electricity companies and the creating of a common market between all member states.

This issue is not going away and short-term bilateral deals are only just band-aids on a cracking dam. This is a regional problem and needs a regional solution, but this is easier said than done of course. For instance, US states are still fighting over water as Colorado, Arizona, and California all desperately need the Colorado River’s vital flows. The EU and Germany have stepped up and tried to assist CA authorities on this issue and the US has also done some work, mainly regarding aid, but more needs to be done. If the US could help the region organize (difficult task) or help certain states fund their much needed hydroelectric dams (possible) much good will and the alleviation of suffering should follow.

For all you lucky readers I have a present…Press Conference reports from US State Department officials about ongoing relations with Central Asia! Calm down please.

Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary, Pamela Spratlen (Photo, left) recently made diplomatic visits to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan and in each destination held a press conference.

In Bishkek, she participated in what was called the second Comprehensive Policy Dialogue with Foreign Minister Ednan Karabayev and introduced the Millennium Challenge Corporation Threshold program. Kyrgyzstan, which is the first country in CA to be selected to participate, will receive $16 million dollars to help them reform their judicial, law enforcement, and criminal justice sectors. Spratlen also voiced her disapproval of the Kyrg government’s recent handling of the December 2007 elections, which it still has failed to release the results of, during the press conference. Spratlen also answered questions regarding recent local protests against the US use of the Manas base in the country.

In Dushanbe, Spratlen discussed her meetings with Tajik government officials, civil society, NGOs, and members of the business community and stressed that the questions that were of ’special interest’ to her were regarding development of democratic institutions and civil society, and about economic recovery and growth, specifically concerning the effects of the recently passed harsh winter. A discussion of the security situation in Afghanistan along with questions pertaining to the US use of Uzbekistan’s Termez airbase (she reiterated that ‘it’s not our airbase. It won’t be our airbase.’ Just that ‘our citizens can use it.’) were highlights of the press conference. Lastly, a reporter from the BBC asked her about the recent controversy over Tajik government’s falsification of its finances to the IMF. She answered that the US and the international community were ‘very concerned’ and had ‘lost some of its confidence’ that the Tajik government fully understood all of its responsibilities to the IMF and the needs of its people.

Just over a week ago, Richard Boucher, Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asia (Spratlen’s boss), held a press briefing titled ‘The Year Ahead in South and Central Asia.’ I have actually not had time to read it all the way over so I will hold my comments until next week, but here is a short review of his statements (to no one’s surprise it appears that Afghanistan was a major topic of discussion, but also Indian energy relations in the CA too).

Have a great weekend!

(Photo Source: US State Department Website)

Since the new year, there has been a serious rise in attacks against non-slavic immigrants in Russia, mainly in the city of Moscow. Human rights groups accuse nationalist extremists, with neo-Nazi sympathies, of murdering between 41-53 immigrants, most of which are from Central Asia or the Caucacus. These types of attacks have occurred in recent years in Russia, but they are becoming more organized and severe. Many of the victims have been stabbed 20-30 times during an attack and far-right websites warn that future attacks may include the use of bombs and guns. Semyon Charny, an expert at the Moscow Bureau for Human Rights, said the situation in Moscow was ‘like a safari.’

The city of Moscow has a large Central Asian minority, about 850,000 of the city’s 10 million inhabitants, who many perform manual labor positions in which there are not enough ethnic Russians to perform. Unfortunately, many Russian citizens seem to see the immigrants as threatening and weak government oversight and policing has helped provide legitimacy to these feelings. In fact, the government has recently passed anti-immigration legislation which some have argued gave tacit approval to the attacks.

Steps have been taken to try to curb this violence by human rights groups, the Russian government, and CA and Caucacus authorities. In late February, the Russian police arrested many leaders of various far-right groups, and in at least one case one leader received a conviction for ‘agitating inter-ethnic discord,’ but the violence has continued as others have taken their place. Raimkul Attakurov, ambassador for Kyrgyzstan in Russia, wrote a letter to Russia’s human rights ombudsman calling the incidents ‘the savage attacks of fascist monsters.’ Embassies have told their citizens to keep a low profile, not to go out on their own, especially to bars, and be well-dressed. Russian government officials have also sat down to discuss the problem with local Azeri, Kyrgyz, Tajik local community leaders, but alas nothing has curbed the ethnic violence.

It seems clear that outright racism has been a factor in these attacks. Opinion polls show that many Russians are ‘uncomfortable’ with the presence of these CA/Caucacus immigrants, even if they aren’t ‘taking their jobs.’ Putin’s domestic and foreign policy has worked hard to bring back Russia’s sense of importance in the world and in regional affairs and this may be helping to create a backlash against non-slavs in Moscow and St. Petersburg.

What should the Russian government do to curb these attacks? What should the governments of the CA/Caucasus states do? I read that there had been diplomatic calls against these abuses from several states, like the above mentioned Kyrg Ambassador Attakurov, but did not find many other official protests. The CA states depend on employment and remittances from Russia so their governments obviously do not want to upset the boat, but this is becoming a serious problem. These neo-Nazi groups have a fascist agenda of violence and hatred that cannot be accepted/condoned/pacified/ignored.

The American Commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan, Gen. Dan K. McNeill, gave an optimistic appraisal of Afghanistan’s stability on Sunday, stating that the Afghan army and police forces should be able to secure most of the country by 2011. McNeill argued that Afghan forces have done an effective job managing security for Kabul, although he stated with NATO support, and expressed confidence that the country could handle the presidential elections set for September 2009. According to McNeill, the insurgents ‘did not have a very good year last year’ and predicts that ‘toe-to-toe’ fights will probably be less common. However, he admits that the insurgent techniques of choice, IEDs and suicide bombing (which will be discussed tomorrow), is still a concern. He also acknowledged the veracity of reports stating an increase in foreign fighters arriving into Pakistan’s tribal areas which border Afghanistan.

Also of interest, Gen. McNeill asserted that ‘the long-term stability of Afghanistan depends on the good will and help of all its neighbors, not just Pakistan. All neighbors have to be helpful, and there are quite a few neighbors around here.’ One of those neighbors McNeill is no doubt referencing is Uzbekistan, and as has been reported on this blog, there has indeed been cooperative progress made. Here is President Karimov just over a week ago: “I would like to state that Uzbekistan stands ready to discuss and sign with NATO an agreement on providing for a corridor and transit through its territory to deliver non-military cargos through the border junction Termez-Khayraton.. In Uzbekistan we distinctly realize that achievement of peace and stability in Afghanistan would be a decisive factor of security which opens up big opportunities…”

On a more somber note, Richard Weitz, who I have referenced before, attended a briefing by counterinsurgency specialists Bruce Hoffman and Seth Jones titled “America’s Counterinsurgency Conundrum: Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Quest for Stability.” Jones and Hoffman reported their findings from their experiences with the US 82nd Airborne Division in four Afghan provinces bordering Pakistan. The two specialists argue that the US military has improved its counterinsurgency methods of late, but that much more needs to be done to defeat the Taliban and bring stability to the region. Hoffman laments of the lack of resources given to the US effort by its government, arguing that way too much is being spent on Iraq. Both specialists argued for the international community to see this Islamic insurgency in Afghanistan and Pakistan as an ‘integrated whole.’ In other words, one is directly connected to the other and for success to be reached progress needs to occur on both sides of the border. Lastly, Hoffman calls this battle America’s ‘most acute foreign policy challenge.’

Quickly, a diplomatic visit by Krygyzstan’s President Bakiev to Kazakhstan this past week has been called a ’success’ by the head of Krygyzstan’s Head of Presidential Administration Medet Sadyrkulov. Kazakhstan President Nazarbaev assured Bakiev that a recently anounced ban on wheat exports would not apply to his country, the two sides discussed the possibilities of Kazakhstan financing a second gas pipeline through Kyrg territory, an agreement between the two states to hold a CA joint economic forum in Kazakhstan in 2009, which would focus on better distributing regional energy and water supplies among all five CA states, and lastly they discussed formulating a common CA plan for dealing with the Europe.

In yet another sign that Turkmenistan is coming out of its isolationist shell, Ashgabat just finished hosting a meeting between the European Union’s Troika and Central Asia’s foreign ministers. The Troika is headed by Slovenian Foreign Minister Dimitrij Rupel, EU External Relations Commissioner Ferrero-Waldner, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, and the EU’s special representative for Central Asia, Pierre Morel. The main premise for the meeting focused on the implementation of EU’s new strategy for Central Asia that includes increasing cooperation between the two regions regarding education, legal norms, economy, trade, energy, drug trafficking, border management, water issues and the environment.

In an interview, EU External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner addressed the diverse agenda of the Troika’s meetings with the CA foreign ministers. She stated that cooperation and relations were ‘growing rapidly’ and discussed ways in which the EU could help the region develop, for instance she emphasized the EU-Central Asia Invest project and how the EU had allocated 314 million euros for regional and bilateral cooperation in the region, along with issues of mutual concern, such as security and energy supplies. Concerning energy, Ferrero-Waldner stated that the diversification of supply and export routes was an important part of the meeting’s agenda.

Andrea Schmitz, a scholar at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin, while acknowledging that the development of an EU-CA energy partnership makes a lot of sense for each side, basically so they each could circumvent Russian influence, accurately argues that this is easier said then done. As of right now, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have nearly all their energy export routes through Russian territory with sizable contracts backing them up. Proposals for alternative gas supple routes have been kicked around for years, yet all pipelines to European markets still flow through Russian territory. Schmitz laments that ‘as long as the EU doesn’t have a common energy policy itself, we won’t have a chance to compete with Russia.’

The EU also faces another hurdle in its energy and strategic dealings with its Central Asian counterparts; its policy of promoting democracy and human rights. Energy, water issues, business dealings were on the table for this meeting and others between the groups, but so were human rights and more open and accountable governmental practices. As Ferrero-Waldner states ‘there will also be the question of human rights, because as you know, human rights are indeed a very important part of our external relations.’ In the aforementioned interview, Ferrero-Waldner responded to several human rights inquiries, specifically regarding Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, and was cautious in her answers, stating that democratization, rule of law, and the development of human rights will ‘take a certain time.’ Concerning Uzbekistan specifically, she stated ‘engagement’ as the best way for the EU to encourage positive developments in furthering these issues.

Unlike CA state dealings with Russia or China, the EU and the United States are held to higher liberal and democratic standards, and even though it can hurt their interests, they bring these ideals to the negotiating table. There is great domestic pressure on US and EU diplomats to push for more open and accountable CA state governments and societies, for example Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch each called on the EU to emphasize human rights progress during this latest summit. The EU and US must perform a complicated dance to further their own strategic and financial interests in CA and at the same time attempt to promote liberal, democratic ideals of governance and society.

In other news, the Chinese government announced yesterday the arrest of 35 people, suspected to be plotting a terrorist attack at the upcoming Beijing Olympics, in Urumqi, the capital of the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region. The authorities stated that they confiscated about 21 pounds (9.5 kg) of explosives, eight detonators, two explosive devices, and some propaganda materials for “holy war.” Authorities stated that the plot, along with a foiled in January, was linked to the terrorist/separatist group the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch each voiced concern over this recent mass arrest, as Chinese authorities failed to provide any direct evidence to the public.