Central Asia

Here are a few interesting items to keep you cool this weekend.

The Central Asia plus Japan Dialogue fourth representational level meeting took place in Tashkent on July 15. For Japan the meeting was ‘aimed to deepen the multifaceted interaction with Central Asia and Uzbekistan, provide for stability and regional security, enhance the trade and economic relations.’

The US Senate confirmed General Petraeus as the chief of Middle East and Central Asia Central Command last week. I guess this is kind of important, right? Petraeus replaces Admiral William Fallon, who stepped down a couple months ago (rumored to be because of policy differences with the Bush Administration regarding Iran policy), and will be replaced by Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno as the lead military man in Iraq.

Not sure how big this story may get, but Stephen Payne, a Houston businessman and GOP activist, is now under a House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform investigation, probing whether he violated federal law by suggesting he could arrange access to top White House officials for Kyrg government officials, including President Akayev, in return for large donations to the Bush presidential library. There is a recorded video of Payne and Akayev meeting and discussing meetings with President Bush and VP Cheney in exchange for hundreds of thousands of dollars to the library.

I wrote a short exert about the passing of Kyrg author/ambassador Chinghiz Aitmatov, and now here’s a sad story from Eurasia.net discussing Aitmatov accomplishments and Kyrgyzstan’s lack of an ability to produce another influential writer or artist.

I am originally a California boy, but I had no idea the northern California city of Fremont had a significant Afghan population, which according to this interesting story, it does!  The piece discusses a local book club called ‘One Book, One Community‘ which recommended its readers check out ‘Three Cups of Tea,” the true story of Greg Mortenson’s travels and charity work in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Apparently, Mortenson was saved by a group of villagers in Pakistan after fallin g from K2 in the Himalyas, and decided to show his appreciation by building schools in remote parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan (now I just hope the Taliban doesn’t burn them all down). Anyways, the city of Fremont and even its mayor have taken on this mission and started donating to the cause themselves.

Freedom House put two new reports out in June of interest: Nations in Transit 2008 Annual Report and Supporting Freedom’s Advocates?: An Analysis of the Bush Administration FY2008 Budget Request for Democracy and Human Rights (Follow the link down the page and download the pdf under ‘Past Reports’) These reports are linked in an unfortunate way, the decreasingly open and democratic nature of Central Asia’s regime is key to both of them.

The Nations in Transit report ‘measures progress and setbacks in democratization in 29 countries and administrative areas from Central Europe to the Eurasian region of the Former Soviet Union.’ In its overall analysis of the former Soviet States, specifically in Central Asia, the report stated; ‘In distinct contrast to the trajectories of the other regions, the former Soviet Union has moved toward a more deeply anchored authoritarian, democratic accountability is an ever-scarcer commodity.’ Dierdre Tynan of Eurasianet.org gives an overview and analysis of the report’s findings here.

The Transit report grades each country from 1-7, with 1 being the most free, on 8 different categories and then assigns a overall score. The categories are: 1. Electoral Process 2. Civil Society 3. Independent Media 4. Governance 5. National Democratic Governance 6. Local Democratic Governance 7. Judicial Framework and Independence 8. Corruption. In a sadly similar formula to last year’s Freedom of the World rankings for Central Asia, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan’s scores could hardly get lower, ranking near the bottom of the world, 6.93 and 6.86 disrespectfully. Kyrgyzstan received the best score in the region, 5.93, with Freedom House calling its 2005 upheaval now a time of ‘lost promise.’ Tajikistan’s score worsened from 5.96 to 6.07, with Freedom House stating that ‘justice is bought and sold’ in the nation.

Concerning the analysis of the Bush Administration’s FY2009 Budget Request for Democracy and Human Rights, Deirdre Tynan also wrote up another overview and critique (I haven’t had time yet to read FH whole report). Tynan reports that FH is disappointed in the President’s proposed budget for two critical reasons; 1. A lack of transparency as to where exactly the money where go, for instance to help civil society, rule of law? 2. Though the budget request increased overall, funds for most Central Asian states fell. The report argues that the US government needs to put more funds in developing the civil society of the region, particularly Kazakhstan, and has harsh words for Russia’s presence in the region, calling it a ‘negative influence over its former Soviet neighbors’ and as sliding evermore ‘towards increased autocracy.’ Freedom House leaves out hope that Congress will put the money back in when they have an opportunity to appropriate funds.

I couldn’t agree more with Freedom House about greater transparency in the appropriation of these funds, we should know where and to whom they are going. And I am more than sympathetic to their promotion of greater aid to support Central Asia’s civil society, independent media, and promotion of the rule of law and free and fair elections, but there are indeed strategic elements to consider, such as energy supplies and the fact that we need to work with these authoritative leaders at time on issues such as Afghanistan’s security. To leaders like, Islam Karimov, Berdymukhamedov, and Nazarbayev this money is aimed at their removal from power and that can’t sit too well, not to mention that China and Russia both few it as an affront to their regional interests and influence.

However, in the end, these are two informative, important, and brave reports by Freedom House.

Weeks back we discussed the media rollback within the Central Asia states, emphasized in a report by Freedom House, and last week I quickly mentioned a World’s Association of Newspapers report that also painted a bleak picture of media rights in CA. Today I have two stories that further showcase the region’s not only lack of media freedom, but also an outright battle against it by the region’s state governments. I also have another story that though has a positive slant, still portrays the region’s free press weaknesses.

Radio Free Europe reports on the story of Avas Saipov and his search for the murderers of his son, Journalist Alisher Saipov, who was murdered last October leaving his Kyrgyzstan office. Avas blames the Karimov government and Kyrg government for the attack and demands justice. He claims the murder was politically motivated because of Alisher’s journalistic work on corruption between the Kyrg and Uzbek governments and the upcoming December of 2007 presidential election for Karimov. Alisher also reported on human rights violations against Muslims in Ferghana Valley, interviewed members of banned religious groups like Hizb ut-Tahrir and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, looked into the 2005 Andijon incident in Uzbekistan and even visited a refugee camp holding some of its victims. These are all issues and stories that the Karimov and other CA state governments want kept either in the shadows or at least under their control so it is no wonder Alisher came under some heat. Avas, the journalist’s father, stated ‘Why were they interested in this {his work}? Because they did not like the truth.’ Sometimes it’s that simple. At the end of the article, there are three short listings of Kyrg and Uzbek government transgressions curbing media rights and targeting Radio Free Europe journalists.

Internet Freedom

The independent websites of Fergana.ru, uznews.net, and ‘Uzbekistan’s Civil Society’ have all placed a special emblem (above left) on their homepages which says ‘This Site Is Blocked in Uzbekistan.’ They are calling on other Uzbek government banned websites to join their anti-censorship campaign ‘to demonstrate how many news websites are inaccessible in the country.’ Radio Free Europe reports that ever since the 2005 Andijon incidents, the Uzbek government has held a tight lid on all Uzbek Internet service, including blocking websites of all opposition groups and indepenent media outlets. Reporters Without Borders puts Uzbek and Turkmenistan on their short list of world’s greatest ‘Internet Enemies’ for good reason. What these websites are doing will not bring down any autocratic government or release press freedom in these countries by itself, but they valuable stances of freedom and showcases of tyranny that will be crucial in the long run in spreading freedom and openness in Central Asia and in the world. When you see tyranny, do not let it go unnoticed.

Speaking of Turkmenistan, the Associated Press reports that its government has begun to allow private citizens to connect to the Internet, connecting about 20 homes a day, mainly in the capital Ashgabat. Before only government, diplomatic officials and major international companies could use the Internet. Before we start celebrating, it is still unclear just how many Turks can afford to pay for the service and if the government will really offer it the general population. It is also dubious to think that many websites will not be banned. But all in all, this has to be considered a welcome move from a government that just years before had a media that was strictly concentrated on and by one person, former President Niyazov.

(Photo: Radio Free Europe)

Here in the United States, the world’s largest and in many ways most dynamic economy, everyday we open the morning papers lately just to see one more sign that our economy is in trouble; credit crisis, stimulus packages, unemployment, gas/oil prices, food prices, a movie in New York City costs $12.00! America is not alone as the nations of Central Asia face an even more dire situation. Even though some of their governments are reaping the rewards of ever-climbing energy prices, all are suffering from a weak world economy, less foreign investment in areas beyond energy, a harsh winter, and rising inflation, especially in regards to food. Here are two stories that showcase the difficult times for the region’s citizens.

A. Locust Invasion- Moroccan locusts have flown into the region from Afghanistan all the way to Kazakhstan and are making an already tenuous food situation much worse. Locusts affect crops in the region every year, but this year is worse than usual and when combined with a harsh winter that took a toll on farm and livestock productive and already high food prices, the region’s poor will most likely suffer even more. This insect invasion also portrays a region largely without the resources to combat such an occurrence, as most of the CA states cannot afford pesticides which could curb some of the locusts damage.

Infestation Statistics (estimated)

Tajikistan - 220,000 hectares of farmland

Kyrgyzstan - 50,000 hectares

Kazakhstan - 200,000 hectares

Uzbekistan - no reported damage

Afghanistan/Iran - damage, but level unknown

B. Education=No Job?!

Farangis Najibullah reports for Radio Free Europe on the region’s failure to provide adequate employment/careers for its college graduates.  The story starts with the story of Mirodil, an Uzbek who graduated from high school and immediately became a migrant worker in Kazakhstan because of the lack of opportunity in his home province Andijon.  Najibullah reports that though many CA states have built or opened universities recently, the number of high school graduates enrolling in them has dropped every year.  For instance, in Uzbek’s Samargand Province, only 12% of their high school grads applied to university.  The main impediment for this is the fact that many college graduates in the region fail to find professional employment in their respected fields and a sufficient salary to go along with it.  Therefore, citizens are choosing not to pay the exam fees (corrupt bribes) and spend years in the classroom, and instead are finding construction, farming, and market jobs in comparatively wealthy Russia or Kazakhstan.  It is easier said than done, but these states need to find jobs for these educated citizens.

Good morning friends, today I would just like to give an update on upcoming or recently passed regional conferences and cooperation in the CA.

1. The 6th Annual Almaty Conference “Central Asia: State and Prospects of Regional Cooperation” will be hosted in surprise, Almaty, Kazakhstan on June 11. The conference is organized by the Ebert Fund and First Kazakh President’s Fund and will be attended by both regional experts from many analytical centers in Kazakhstan, other CA states, Europe, Russia, and China and diplomatic mission representatives from many of these states. All that was stated was that a ‘wide range of issues’ about the ’state and prospects’ of CA regional cooperation planned to be discussed.

2. Currently, Almaty is also hosting a subregional seminar on environmental impact assessment for CA and Azerbaijan from June 3-5. Representatives of environmental protection departments, international and social organizations, mass media will participate in the event. The CA region has many pressing environmental concerns at the moment from hydroelectric power supply to locust invasions.

3. Tashkent, Uzbekistan hosted an international conference on “Security and stability in Central Asia in the Context of Political and Economic Modernization” from May 29-30. The government of Uzbekistan along with many European organizations hosted and put on the event which focused on stability, security, and socioeconomic issues in Afghanistan and the region as a whole. Uzbek President Karimov appeared to be the star of the show and discussed his plan’s on making Afghanistan a more stable and functioning state.

4. Lastly, Tajik President Rahmon and Kazak Head of State Nazarbayev, during a recent diplomatic visit, voiced their approval (with Kyrgyzstan also backing) of forming a Central Asian Union. We have discussed this possibility before and the fact that it faces many hurdles, especially Uzbekistan’s outright refusal and a wary Russia as well. Still, Kazakhstan desires more influence in this region to match its growing economic power and leading a CA regional cooperation grouping would certainly help it achieve this goal.

We’ve had a ‘Good News’ blog and another lighthearted one of various links, but the good times are over! Thanks to Freedom House’s newly released Freedom of the Press 2007 Survey, we can put the good feelings behind us as our Central Asian states received bleak, down-trending outlooks. The Survey concluded that Press Freedom was in retreat throughout the world, the six year in a row the Survey concluded this, and that many former Soviet States regressed the most dramatically. In fact, most Central Asian and Caucasus countries received lower grades than last year and Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan garnered ’special’ mention as two of the most media repressed societies in the world. Freedom House’s website has a thorough amalgam of description’s, charts, and analysis of the survey that should not be missed. Also, here is a short description of the Survey’s findings from Eurasianet.org.

Just like Freedom House’s overall Freedom Rankings, in this survey a nation is ranked either Free, Partly Free, or Not Free based on these three categories:

1. Political influence on reporting and access to information

2. Legal environment in which media outlets operate

3. Economic Pressure on content and the dissemination of news

Each nation was ranked on a scale of 0-100, with 100 representing complete government control over mass media, and zero indicating perfect freedom.

Kyrgyzstan- 70, Downward trend, government pressure on public broadcast media affecting the political environment

Turkmenistan- 96, Same score, only Burma and North Korea received a worse score, the report stated ‘the government retained its absolute monopoly over all media, directly controlling not only media outlets, but also the printing presses and other infrastructure’

Uzbekistan- 92, up one point from last year, the report states that Uzbek authorities ’showed no respect for freedom of speech or of the press’

Kazakhstan- 78, two point increase, the report acknowledged widespread government control and the harassment of independent journalists and editors

Tajikistan- 77, the report criticized its treatment of journalists and the introduction of amendments criminalizing libel and defamation on the Internet

An overall poor showing for the whole region.

An ongoing story I came across recently exemplifies the region’s problems with a free and secure media environment. It appears the government of Kazakhstan has blocked Radio Free Europe’s (RFE/RL), an independent news and broadcast organization funded by the US Congress, website. RFE/RL President Jeffrey Gedmin at first thought it might be a technical problem, now, after the Kazak government failed to respond to several inquiries, suggests that this is a case of ‘deliberate interference.’ This shutdown does not only affect Kazak’s population, but the people in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan as KazTelecom, the state telecom operator, is the key Internet service provider across all of CA.

This situation is getting serious as OSCE representative on media freedom, Miklos Haraszti, sent a formal letter to the Kazak government asking why the service has been interrupted and requesting that it be brought back right away. It is important to know that Kazakhstan stands to take over the OSCE Chairmanship in 2010 and has faced much criticism from many human rights group in the West who are against a country with such a poor record holding such an important position. This event is drawing fresh attention to Kazakhstan’s repressive government, no doubt attention it does not desire. Haraszti uses rather strong language in his letter stating;

‘I am convinced that the state Internet service providers were informed by your government that interference in providing service would violate Kazakhstan’s press freedom commitments.’ He adds that OSCE’s Permanent Council Decision No. 633, states that participating states must pledge ‘to take action to ensure that the Internet remains an open and public forum for freedom of opinion and expression.’

As of right now, no Kazak government official has publicly responded to the letter.

In the same report, Turkmenistan’s government was criticized for harassing and intimidating various Radio Free Europe correspondents. In addition, Kyrgyzstan has a new media bill that some argue would crush any positive steps that have been taken since their 2005 popular uprising.

Freedom House’s media survey and these recent events portray a region in the dark and one whose leadership wants to keep it that way.

Just a quick one today folks. If you haven’t checked it out yet, make sure to take a look at the post on May 11 ‘A Autocratic Dawn’, I think it raises an important issue that will and has affected CA and the world.

EurasiaNet has written a scathing report chronicling the Tajikistan government’s voluntary tax request from some of its poorest citizens in order to raise $10 million dollars to finance the Rogun project. The news outlet calls the tax ‘arbitrary’ and ‘confiscatory’ and rightly claims that it will dramatically hurt the poorest of the nation for amounts to a very small percentage of the projects ultimate budget, around $550 million. The people of Tajik deserve better and if this money is raised, the government needs to be transparent of its use, otherwise it will disillusion its populace to an even greater degree.

Kyrgyzistan’s President Bakiyev has provided a one-time compensation payment of $14,600 to 72 children and their families, who were accidentally infected with the AIDS virus in two southern Kyrg hospitals, because of what has been asserted as medical personnel negligence. This is a tragic way for progress to be spurred, but hopefully this is a sign that the Kyrg government is going to start taking HIV/AIDS prevention more seriously.

Just as I opine about a growing autocratic threat to the world liberal system I want to introduce a report by the Brookings Institution analyzing weak states, many of which consist of authoritative leadership. Of course yesterday’s discussion centered on the Great Powers of China and Russia who do not fair prominently on this list, though Russia actually made it in at 65 (the lower the number the weaker the state) which was ahead of both Kyrgyzstan (73) and Kazakhstan (89). Here is the actual report and a summary.

Nathan at Registan.net’s Central Asia News — All Central Asia, All The Time discussed this report a couple weeks ago and highlighted the fact that two of CA’s most oppressive dictatorships, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, faired the worst, ranked 35, 36 respectively. Nathan summarizes the reports stated weakness’s of such regimes as their continuous reshuffling of government officials and that both of these governments pursue foreign policies that mainly only increase the executive power of the state and not the state as a whole.

Nathan finishes his analysis by making the pertinent point that these dictators, Karimov and Berdymukhammedov, feel very insecure and that foreign nation’s policies toward these unstable leaders must take this into account in diplomatic dealings. It would be easy for these leaders to lean in a direction where they feel more secure, and as China and Russia have shown, they are more than willing to forgive these leaders’ transgressions as long as they keep their nation stable and accept their economic and security influence. The West’s task with these types of states is tremendously difficult; they want to help them become more liberal/democratic, share in their economic and strategic resources (such as oil and bases), and have their governments lean in their direction, all at the same time. Attaining all these goals is mammoth endeavor and has shown to be a continual forward and back struggle.

How much influence should a country’s type of leadership affect a state’s (US) policy towards them? Do you agree with the Brookings Report rankings? Do you think that Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, and Russia for that matter, have weak governments?

On a related note, I have discussed Turkmenistan’s recent movements away from Niyazov’s totalitarian regime and the New York Times has jumped in on the discussion. In the article, Professor Eric McGlinchey correctly cautions optimism regarding these changes, warning that the current President, Mr. Berdymukhammedov may be using these transformative polices just to consolidate his own rule in the nation.

No matter how advanced our human civilization becomes, creating and then depending on such things as the Internet and cell phones, life for all humans still comes down to one thing, WATER. Central Asia’s historically harsh winter this past year has put tremendous strains on all parts of life in the region, from households to each state’s own presidential palace have felt its effects. Water is vital to each nation and person because it is the main provider for not only the agricultural industry, but also of electricity.

This recent story personifies the extent of CA’s water problems: Due to the unusually cold winter and the increased use of electricity, largely powered by hydroelectric sources, the government of Tajikistan is ‘requesting’ that all the residents of the nation, one of poorest in the region, give up half of their salaries in May and June to help fund the Rogun dam. This effort would still only put $10 million into a project that is estimated to cost at least $550 million.

The CA region has been a disorganized and its nation’s have failed to unite to solve this region-wide problem ever since the USSR broke down and each of these states came into existence. Joanna Lillis clearly describes the ramifications of the recent difficult winter and how it has caused a new emphasis in the region on getting their water, irrigation system right. She discusses how each CA nation is really only looking out for themselves and how this is causing all to suffer, especially the poorest in each country.

As was discussed earlier on this page, the presidents of Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan made efforts to create a Central Asian Union, which would include a water and energy consortium, a couple weeks ago, but Uzbekistan’s President Karimov quickly put a stop to this idea in his recent visit to Astana; “I want to state right away that this initiative is unacceptable for Uzbekistan.” Uzbekistan, the region’s largest consumer of water, seems to be playing regional power politics with Kazakhstan’s attempt at leading a regional forum, but this does not help in anyway the vital water issues of the region.

Moves have been made however to start to alleviate some of these issues; Kazakhstan will very soon begin its Koksaray reservoir, which will help it contain some of the flooding from water being released from its neighbors, and Kazakhstan’s government and large company Kazkuat, may help pay for Kyrgyzstan’s Kambarta project, which includes two power plants that would cost $2 billion

Kazakhstan is showing their increasing power and political sway in the region by trying to sure up its water and energy needs. These moves are to secure the country the energy and water it needs to help fuel its rising economy, but they should have positive effects throughout the region.

What would truly help solve these water issues would be a regional consortium, for many waterways traverse through all CA nations and what one does affects all others. Lillis advocates using the Eurasian Economic Community as a forum for cooperation, though it does not have Turkmenistan as a member. She discusses a blueprint that is already in place by the EAEC which proposes finding a suitable fuel and energy balance for all countries, attracts financing for Kyrg’s Kambarata project, restoring Soviet principles of irrigation for downstream states (Kazak, Uzbek, Turkmenistan), joint investment in power plants (very important), removing barriers to electricity companies and the creating of a common market between all member states.

This issue is not going away and short-term bilateral deals are only just band-aids on a cracking dam. This is a regional problem and needs a regional solution, but this is easier said than done of course. For instance, US states are still fighting over water as Colorado, Arizona, and California all desperately need the Colorado River’s vital flows. The EU and Germany have stepped up and tried to assist CA authorities on this issue and the US has also done some work, mainly regarding aid, but more needs to be done. If the US could help the region organize (difficult task) or help certain states fund their much needed hydroelectric dams (possible) much good will and the alleviation of suffering should follow.

For all you lucky readers I have a present…Press Conference reports from US State Department officials about ongoing relations with Central Asia! Calm down please.

Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary, Pamela Spratlen (Photo, left) recently made diplomatic visits to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan and in each destination held a press conference.

In Bishkek, she participated in what was called the second Comprehensive Policy Dialogue with Foreign Minister Ednan Karabayev and introduced the Millennium Challenge Corporation Threshold program. Kyrgyzstan, which is the first country in CA to be selected to participate, will receive $16 million dollars to help them reform their judicial, law enforcement, and criminal justice sectors. Spratlen also voiced her disapproval of the Kyrg government’s recent handling of the December 2007 elections, which it still has failed to release the results of, during the press conference. Spratlen also answered questions regarding recent local protests against the US use of the Manas base in the country.

In Dushanbe, Spratlen discussed her meetings with Tajik government officials, civil society, NGOs, and members of the business community and stressed that the questions that were of ’special interest’ to her were regarding development of democratic institutions and civil society, and about economic recovery and growth, specifically concerning the effects of the recently passed harsh winter. A discussion of the security situation in Afghanistan along with questions pertaining to the US use of Uzbekistan’s Termez airbase (she reiterated that ‘it’s not our airbase. It won’t be our airbase.’ Just that ‘our citizens can use it.’) were highlights of the press conference. Lastly, a reporter from the BBC asked her about the recent controversy over Tajik government’s falsification of its finances to the IMF. She answered that the US and the international community were ‘very concerned’ and had ‘lost some of its confidence’ that the Tajik government fully understood all of its responsibilities to the IMF and the needs of its people.

Just over a week ago, Richard Boucher, Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asia (Spratlen’s boss), held a press briefing titled ‘The Year Ahead in South and Central Asia.’ I have actually not had time to read it all the way over so I will hold my comments until next week, but here is a short review of his statements (to no one’s surprise it appears that Afghanistan was a major topic of discussion, but also Indian energy relations in the CA too).

Have a great weekend!

(Photo Source: US State Department Website)