Afghanistan and Central Asia

The financial crisis that began in the United States has made its presence felt around the globe and Central Asia is no exception. How is Central Asia’s greatest economic power, Kazakhstan, handling this economic crisis and how is the economic downturn effecting the stability, security, and development of the region. These were the main topics of a conference between many regional experts in Astana last month called “New Challenges and Kazakhstan’s Contribution to Stability and Security.”

Muriel Mirak-Weissbach, a scholar of the region’s economic and strategic outlook attended the conference and not only summarizes the major issues and policies discussed, but also provides a historical perspective of past economic crisis’s in Kazakhstan. Here is an excerpt of what Nurbakh Rustemov, the keynote speaker and Chairman of the hosting parliamentary committee, had to say of the economic downturn and its consequences:

“He bluntly stated that the world financial crisis was leading to a “misunderstanding” among geopolitical forces, and carried the danger of a direct threat to humanity, through hunger and poverty.(1) He called for uniting forces internationally, to overcome the financial-economic crisis, which he dubbed the “number one priority.” Rustemov mentioned the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, of which Kazakhstan is a founding member, as well as the OSCE, which Kazakhstan will chair beginning 2010, as bodies his government would like to utilize to find solutions to the crisis. Two concrete means that his country could use to impact the crisis, would be in securing energy resources, and providing grain and meat exports to alleviate food shortages.”

Rustemov is correct in stating that this economic crisis may lead to following and connected geopolitical disruptions and he’s also right in arguing that regional and multilateral groups, such as the SCO and OSCE, will be crucial in helping the world get through this mess in one stable piece. Another important aspect of his comments is the positive role Kazakhstan can play in impacting the crisis in a productive way and that is in securing energy resources and in providing food stuffs to alleviate shortages in other countries, specifically in harder hit CA states, such as Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan.

Kazakhstan’s abundance of energy supplies, combined with President Nazarbayev’s prudent planning, have left the nation in good condition despite the tough times. Nazarbayev announced last month that the government would spend $2 billion to stimulate the economy, mainly targeting banks and the construction industry, funds drawn from the nation’s oil fund. Unfortunately, not all CA or world states have an oil fund to fall back on.

What the whole of Central Asia can hope for is sturdy economic stewardship by its regional leader, Kazakhstan, and help from regional bodies, both from the East and West to weather what will most likely be a lengthy recession. During this time, it will be vital to keep the region from falling into disrepair as poverty and extremism would both be on the rise and this may lead to conflict. The US, Russia, China, and the EU all have roles to play in mitigating negative ramifications of this crisis in the region, but a strong and active Kazakhstan is crucial. As Muriel Mirak-Weissbach concludes:

“Kazakhstan has become the foremost interlocutor in Central Asia, not only for Eurasian giants Russia and China, but also for the two major economies of western Europe, Germany and France. If the current world crisis can be overcome through participation of major Eurasian nations, Kazakhstan can become the linchpin in the region for stability and security.”

In addition, the US State Department announced a nuclear safety cooperation with Kazakhstan. Read Below.

The United States and the Republic of Kazakhstan reached a new milestone in a multiyear joint project to irreversibly decommission the Soviet-era BN-350 fast breeder reactor located at the Kazakhstani port of Aktau on the Caspian Sea. The participating governments completed a sodium processing facility that will be used to dispose of coolant from the reactor core. This action demonstrates and reinforces the strength of the U.S.-Kazakhstani strategic relationship, and our joint commitment to preventing the proliferation of nuclear materials.

First off, I would like to thank all the veterans throughout the world who sacrificed for their respective homeland. Military men, women, and families have given up so much so we can live in peace and prosperity and for this we owe them our highest respect and gratitude.

And at this very moment, soldiers, both foreign and domestic, are working to stabilize a dangerous situation in Afghanistan/Pakistan. As the Pakistani army tries to dislodge the Taliban from the strategic Bajaur border area, Afghan officials concluded a conference in Kabul regarding facilitating cooperation on security threats facing the nation and the whole CA region. Leaders of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and officials from Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and Mongolia attended the conference, where they discussed ways to enhance border security and strengthen ties between law enforcement agencies throughout the Central Asia region. These two events, the Pakistani army battle for Bajaur and the multilateral conference on regional security issues are two vital components to increasing the chances of successful regional stability and progress. The nations of Pakistan and Afghanistan can not go alone in this conflict, but they need to be willing to make great sacrifices. In the same vein, international groups and nations need to not only provide lip service toward the conflict, but to truly engage themselves.

On another note, here is an update on the CA regional water agreement largely settled a few weeks ago. It appears Uzbekistan is likely to follow the prudent path and hopefully this will save the region’s people much suffering this winter.

On another other note, I started another blog discussing more general foreign policy and international relations issues called Great Power Politics.

(Photo Source: New York Times, Pakistani troops in Bajaur)

About a month ago, a 4,000 large contingent of American, Canadian, British, Danish, Australian, and Afghan soldiers made a heroic (yes, I’m watching and Saving Private Ryan right now, and these troops are just as valiant) effort in delivering a huge turbine to south Afghanistan’s Kajaki Dam. Here is an update on those efforts which would more than double the electrical output in the Helmand Province along with many others which are in the heart of NATO/Afghan government’s battle for supremacy against the Taliban.

The large turbine has yet to be installed, but its safe arrival has brightened the prospects for the everyday lives of thousands of Afghani’s, many of which live with only a couple hours of electricity a day. Though the $180 million dollar US-funded Kajaki Dam project is a great sign of hope, the events surrounding its arrival and installation portray the trying situation of the country. The Taliban are in control of much of the south and they have tried to derail the Kajaki’s production and further improvement ever since 2001. The workers, both foreign and local, need protection from Taliban elements, who do not want to see the Afghan government gain control or legitimacy in the area, as a successful energy project such as the giant new turbine would provide.

In fact this project, along with the work and targeting of aid workers, could not paint a more clear picture of one aspect of this conflict that can be well-defined. Magnus Linklater said it best:

“Whose values best represent the interests of ordinary Afghans - those of the Western aid agencies working to shore up the country’s infrastructure by building dams and opening up roads, or the violent extremists who shot Gayle Williams? {aid worker}”
The words of Helmand Province’s governor also tell the story:

“The children of Afghanistan will not forget the work done for this power station.”

As was mentioned, this project is far from complete and its future is far from assured, in fact if the turbine is successfully installed and starts to give southern Afghan’s a greater supply of energy and jobs, it will be in many ways miraculous. These soldiers and workers, both foreign and local, may not be landing on a Nazi-controlled Normandy beach, but their efforts are giving a small swath of the world’s citizens a chance at a better life.

(Map Source: New York Times)
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Two days ago, a French aid worker was the latest to be targeted by Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan. In this case the aid worker, who was reportedly an education specialist from an unknown NGO, was kidnapped by a small group of Taliban members, who in the process killed a young Afghan civilian. Reportedly 19 humanitarian aid workers have been killed so far this year, which surpasses the 15 victims of 2007.

Why are the Taliban targeting and killing/kidnapping foreign and local aid workers? Is it because they are foreigners who may be proselytizing Christianity or other religions? This probably has something to do with it. Though many of these aid workers are actually Afghans who share the Taliban’s Muslim faith, it is true that there are Western foreigners there from many different NGOs, making them more suspicious.

But I, and Stratfor agrees, believe that they are mainly targeted as way to embarrass/undermine the Afghan government and NATO troop presence. These workers are trying to spread education, health, infrastructure, business, and good governance in the nation, and if they are successful, along with the Afghan government, the Taliban are cooked. As in their ability to replace the government will become less likely. They need to foment instability and chaos in places where the Afghan government is present and solidify their rule where it is absent. Concerning NATO and foreign NGOs, many European nations and groups support for the ISAF and Afghan state building are becoming shaky and less long-term committal, and these aid worker attacks are not making them feel any better. The resolve of the Afghan people, Afghan government, NATO forces, NGOs, and NATO home citizens is being challenged by these Taliban attacks. We have to be ready to meet these challenges, for the alternative is a ruler who believes no one is safe, not even Muslim aid workers building schools.

(Photo Source: New York Times)

In honor of Election Day here in America, how about we remind the two presidential candidates of a tremendously volatile and challenging issue they will all of a sudden be responsible for; Afghanistan/Pakistan democracy and stability. President-elect Obama or McCain will face quite the number of tests, and defeating the Taliban and Al Qaeda, bringing good governance to Afghanistan, and helping to stabilize Pakistan will be central to their administration providing international security.

The Bush administration set up a meeting with Obama and McCain’s advisor’s two weeks ago to brief them on the current situation. The meeting featured a who’s who of Afghan experts from the US, NATO, and UN, who briefed two foreign policy aides for each Obama and McCain. The aides were reportedly told that the situation was rather dire and that they would need to start setting up their strategy/policy for the war effort before they take office in January.

“The intent was to ensure that everyone understand that the situation is very fast-moving, and if the new administration spends three months trying to figure out what to do, it’s too late,” said one administration official who participated in the discussion.

The Bush Administration has in recent months been working on a new strategy for the conflict, already involving the addition of 8,000 troops and the naming of Gen. Petraeus as the head of Central Command, and I hope the President-elect and Bush’s administration can work effectively in formulating a comprehensive and stable transition plan.  This plan may have to include a greater willingness of starting negotiations with elements of the Taliban.

The 2008 election will not be decided on either candidates position on Afghanistan/Pakistan, the economy, Bush, and Iraq have trumped it, but the next president had better be ready for what is indeed a troubling and strategic situation in Central Asia.

In all the violent incidents that have plagued the people of Afghanistan in its recent history, many have died, but even more have been permanently maimed and disabled. Below is a remarkable video about some of the Afghani disabled and their struggle for rights and services: Because the New York Times, who produced this video, will not allow me to embed the video for some reason, please click here to watch.

And because I would rather leave you for the weekend on a more optimistic note, here are two more light-hearted and hopeful pieces.

David Sherman is an American veterinarian who works for an international NGO in Afghanistan providing medical to its citizen’s pet and farm animals. Sherman has had some amazing experiences in the country and it has definitely affected his life perspective.

And if you thought that story was soft, then check this one out! It is a review of a Chinese cookbook, ‘Beyond the Great Wall: Recipes and Travels in Other China.’ The book spotlights Uighur, Kazak and Tajik peoples, customs, and food. Let me know if you find any worthwhile recipes.

Yesterday, I made a statement that it appeared that the Pakistani government was implicitly alright with the use of US drone predator missile attacks in their territory, as long they avoided civilian casualties. While according to statements by Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry and several members of the country’s ruling coalition, this is not completely true. The Foreign Ministry and several parliament members requested the appearance of US Ambassador Anne Patterson so they could voice their protest of such measures to the US government. The For Ministry stated that the missile attacks should ’stop immediately’ as they argued that not only were they undermining Pakistani sovereignty and legitimacy, they were just adding fuel to the fire and turning the whole Pakistani populace against the US/NATO forces in Afghanistan. A report stated that many Pakistani’s even blamed the recent Marriot Hotel attack in Islamabad on US air strikes.

The US military/government and the Pakistani military/government are both smashed tightly between a rock and a hard place. The US desires to stabilize Afghanistan and keep its troops safe and they believe one of the best way to do this is to go after the Taliban and Al Qaeda elements were ever they may be, as was shown by a similar US strike in Syria against militant forces. The Pakistani government/military are fighting for legitimacy and the right to govern their own lands. Though we all know the issue is more complicated than just these two aims for each side, I would like to think that these goals can have one combined strategy. Afterall, the US would love to have a stronger Pakistani government that could effectively rule over all its sovereign territory and the Pakistani government needs some help in putting down the Taliban, at least to a point where many of them would be forced to negotiate.

How are the goals of the Pakistani government/military and US government/military congruent? Different?

Today I would like to go over recent developments in the conflict spanning the Afghan-Pakistan border as the conflict’s many sides (NATO, Afghans, Taliban, Pakistan military, Al Qaeda, and local tribes) have all recently been in the news for various reasons: The Bush administration has authorized even greater use of missile/drone attacks inside of Pakistan, the Pakistan army has made some headway into the tribal region of Bajur, Tribal leaders have attempted to once again rise up and challenge the Taliban, and Afghan and Pakistan tribal and political leaders have moved ever closer to negotiations with elements of the Taliban.

US forces have been using drones to target Al Qaeda and Taliban units since the beginning of the war, but this strategy has increased greatly of late and has moved ever deeper into Pakistan sovereign territory. Slate’s William Saleton catalogs many recent attacks, including one yesterday in which 20 people were reportedly killed, and argues with evidence from a New York Times article that despite claims from Pakistani officials, their government tacitly supports this tactic.

What the Pakistan government is adamantly against in the presence of US/NATO troops on their territory, as their officials argue it undermines their legitimacy. This is indeed true, but the US needs to see some results from the Pakistani military that these border regions are being governed and policed. While it appears that the Pakistani military, long accused of making deals that favor the Taliban, has made some progress in the Bajur area of the tribal belt. The region has been deemed a ‘mega sanctuary’ for the Taliban militants and after two months of hard fighting the Pak military has caused an outright fleeing of militant elements from the area. However, the holding of this strategic region will be the true test of the will and ability of the Pak military, this is indeed a welcome development.

Another encouraging sign is the slight reintroduction of lashkars, or tribal militias, into the fight against the Taliban and Al Qaeda in the tribal regions. These tribes and their leaders have been decimated, first by the Pakistani gov in the 1980s (with US help) in their fight against the Soviets, and recently by the Taliban since 2001, who have strongly challenged their rule in the tribal regions. Despite great mortal threat to their lives, many lashkars are rising up, and supporting the Pakistan army in removing the Taliban from their regions. It seems impossible to imagine the Taliban defeated without the help and reemergence of these lashkars.

Lastly, a delegation of Afghan and Pakistani officials met in Islamabad to approach the issue of reconciliation with elements of the Taliban who would recognize both state constitutions and renounce violence. The US remained quiet on this issue, weary of former Pak gov deals with the militants, but has stated that it supports reconciliation with those elements who give up violence. Here is an excerpt:

Pakistani and Afghan leaders vowed Tuesday to seek dialogue with Taliban insurgents, saying the “door is now open” for reconciliation.

The declaration by political and tribal leaders adds force to existing moves in Afghanistan and Pakistan to talk to the militants amid what appears to be growing international recognition that dialogue with moderates is key to ending the violence.

Former Afghan Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah said both countries would talk only with those militants who “accept the constitutions of both nations,” but did not explicitly say they must first disarm.

Another delegate to the two-day talks between political and tribal leaders in the Pakistani capital of Islamabad said that the offer was not open to al-Qaida members blamed for some of the worst violence in both countries.

Just like the reemergence of the lashkars and more strategic uses of attacks in border tribal areas, negotiations with elements of the Taliban that are willing to live peacefully in the region will be necessary for a conclusion to this current conflict.

What do this new, and old, developments and strategies mean for the future of this conflict? Are these positive developments or just one more part of a long, sad story?

(Photo Source: New York Times: Tribal Militias with the Pakistani Army)

Ever since the Soviet Union’s collapse, the region of Central Asia, flush with newly minted states, has struggled to come up with a regional water arrangement to suit all those involved. In recent weeks, the region’s governmental leaders have been working on a short-term water sharing deal, and it now appears their work has come to a successful conclusion.

Here is an excerpt explaining the agreement’s intricacies and processes from The Times of Central Asia:

“After the conference of [our] heads of state in Bishkek [on October 10], we eventually managed to sign an agreement on measures to live through the very difficult autumn-winter period of 2008-2009 at a meeting of the deputy prime ministers of the five Central Asian countries on October 18 in Almaty,” Shukeyev said.
“It is the first such agreement between our five countries in the history of their independence,” he stressed. According to Shukeyev, similar agreements between the four countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan were terminated in 2004-2005, and afterwards the distribution of water, electricity, and fuel, as well as operation of the region’s united energy system, was based on bilateral agreements, which did not encompass the entire range of problems.
“Now Turkmenistan has been involved, because it is impossible to ensure a balanced operation of Central Asia’s energy system this year without Turkmen electricity,” the Kazakh deputy PM said. According to him, Turkmenistan has pledged to sell additional volumes of electricity to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan has promised to transit this electricity.
Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan will assist Kyrgyzstan in maintaining the current water level in the Toktogul reservoir, insuring its use for Kazakh and Uzbek irrigation during the coming agriculture season, Shukeyev said. He reminded that the water level in the Toktogul reservoir is critically low this year – now at 9.5 billion cubic meters.
“According to the agreement, Uzbekistan will deliver to Kyrgyzstan an additional 150 million cubic meters of gas [this winter]. We [Kazakhstan] will deliver [to Kyrgyzstan] fuel oil and coal. We have also assumed the obligation to make an advance payment for [Kyrgyz] electricity during the next agricultural season,” the Kazakh deputy PM said. “In exchange, Kyrgyzstan will now introduce a very rigid electricity saving regime, maximally use its coal- and gas-fired power plants, and introduce an almost 30 percent restriction on electricity consumption this winter,” he added.
In his words, during the coming agricultural season Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will buy 1.2 billion kWh of Kyrgyz electricity to ensure the irrigation of their arable lands. This is done primarily because discharging water from the Toktogul reservoir for the irrigation of Kazakh and Uzbek fields during the spring-summer season generates surplus electricity from the Toktogul power plant that is not needed inside Kyrgyzstan during the summer. At the same time, releasing the water during the summer causes water loss that is needed for generating electricity for domestic consumption during the following winter months.
(With Ferghana.ru, Kazakhstan Today)

Here is an analysis of the deal’s shortcomings and strengths from Paul Goble. Goble has wise words that this agreement has many tenuous attributes that are likely from making this a long lasting solution. The ability of Uzbekistan to follow through on all aspects of energy and water transfers will be one specific element to keep an eye and one area that could end up derailing the agreement. But compared to where things were at just a few weeks ago, this is a positive development that will hopefully bring some stability for the coming winter.

In other news, the countries of Central Asia and international organizations UN and OSCE held a two day conference on the prevention of the trafficking of drugs from Afghanistan through the region.

And that’s not all the cooperating going on, as many representatives from the region met in Tashkent to discuss Disaster Prevention, specifically regarding future earthquakes.

(Photo Source: zz77: Lake Tcharvak, a reservoir in Tashkent Province, Uzbekistan)

Continuing yesterday’s thread, I would like to highlight one major aspect of progress in Afghanistan; the role of women in the workplace and in society as a whole. To do this I will showcase the stories of a few particular women, and unfortunately in their stories there is great suffering and too visible of signs of how far the nation needs to go to be a place where there is equal opportunity and rights for all citizens. However, these stories which you are about to hear would be impossible before the Taliban’s removal in 2001 and would surely become negligible in the near future if the Taliban gained control back over more and more parts of the country.

Malalai Kakar became Police Lt.-Col. Malalai Kakar soon after the Taliban were overthrown in 2001 and she quickly rose to become Afghanistan’s highest ranking female police officer. Her bravery and will lead her to use her position to fight for and protect Afghan women suffering from domestic violence and other crimes. She chose this vocation knowing full well the threat to her physical life and in fact received death threats on a frequent basis. Unfortunately, her personal story ends on a tragic note, as perpetrators claiming to be members of the Taliban, finally murdered her and severely injured her son in late September. Kaker was obviously viewed as a mortal threat to the Taliban’s existence and way of life. If any one story personifies what is right and what is wrong, this has to be it. Kakar’s murderers need to be brought to justice, the Afghan populace needs to see that this is unacceptable and these wrongdoers will need to be seen paying their debt to society.

Unfortunately, this next story highlights that even the government and the country’s judicial system are at times anti-women’s and equal rights. Perwiz Kambakhsh, a young journalist, had a life sentence commuted to just 20 years in jail! for distributing an article critical of Muhammad’s treatment of women’s rights. What Kambakhsh wrote may have been offensive, but offensiveness should not translate to jail time or a death sentence. If the Afghan government is to reform the judicial system must become a greater voice and pillar of a constitution based on equality and freedom of speech.

Otherwise women and others who are oppressed will fear to speak out for their rights and well-being. Farida Nekzad, managing editor for Pajhwok Afghan News, discusses the dangers from all directions for those who dare to speak out for women’s rights and safety:
“When the reporters write about these issues, the ruling power does not want to tolerate it, does not want these issues to be heard by people or to be talked about,” she says. “When a woman leader comes out and talks about the issues of women’s rights, women’s freedom, and freedom of speech, that woman is in a lot of danger.”

So this trip through the progress of Afghan women has been bumpy to say the least, and this will no doubt continue, but I want to leave you a story of a group of women in the Bamian Province. These women now hold law enforcement positions, can drive a car, and a woman is actually governor of the entire province. I would like to say that this is a happy ending to my piece today, and in many ways it is, but we must know, as this group of women surely does, that their current way of life is being threatened everyday by the Taliban, other extremists, and at times their own government, and only time will tell what the future holds. But one things for sure, these women are extremely brave and their courage is no doubt an inspiration to all those who will hopefully follow in their footsteps. Enjoy the video.