Afghanistan and Central Asia

As the worldwide economic downturn continues it is showing its frightful face in many ways.  The World Bank has just reported that worldwide remittances, money sent from immigrants back to their homeland, are drammatically slowing down and causing further impoverishment for the families back home.  This is especially serious for the Central Asian states as a significant minority of the region’s citizens depend upon this money coming in to live a decent life.

The countries of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are in especially vulnerable position as remittances from their relatives in Russia are not coming in like the used to.  The Russian economy is in rapid decline, and with oil and gas prices staying low, it could be a longterm issue.  There are millions of Tajiks, Uzbeks, and other Central Asian citizens in Moscow and other Russian cities looking for any work they can get and this downturn has made employment harder and harder to find.  Many of the CA immigrants who cannot find work are headed home empty handed.

To make matters worse, Russian Xenophobia is on the rise again and this time government officials are helping foment the anger and violent actions.  Just days before Christmas, a group of skinheads shot and then beheaded 20 year old Tajik Salokhiddin Azizov and sent a picture of his decapitated head to human rights groups.  For the year 2008, there were over 100 immigrant killings in Russia and this incident and the continual economic crisis do not bode well for the year ahead.  Making matters even more unstable is recent comments by a member of the Russian Duma and Moscow’s Mayor Yuri Luzhkov, each advocating restricting immigration to ‘fight radical Islam’ and to open up jobs for Russian citizens.  Though the Russian state has made some law enforcement moves to curtail and hold accountable those who committ anti-immigrant crime, they are obviously not doing enough and may actually be tacitly approving of such actions, possibly to take heat of themselves for the poor economic situation.

This makes a strong case against authoritarian governments, as it shows that Russian society, under this current system, is unable to have a real debate about the issue.  There seems to be no outlet for the people to express their frustrations, so they are using violence.  Kyrgz migrant Ovazbek Imonaliyev, 23, stated ‘I move through Moscow like a hunted beast.’  This is the year 2009, humans should not be ‘hunted beasts.’  The situation for the CA immigrants seems untenable in Moscow, but economic necessity will keep many of them there. 

(Photo: Russian convicted of murdering immigrants: Source: Associated Press)

Good news that hopefully just keeps getting better. The Afghan government, not US/NATO troops, has arrested 10 suspects in the Nov. 12 female student and teacher acid attack. It looks like it was a combination of local Kandahar and federal police and law officials who performed the investigation, arrests, and has reportedly garnered confessions from the suspects. The Afghan officials accused a high-ranking Taliban member of instigating the attack by offering 100,000 Pakistani rupees for any violence against Afghan schools and female students. Now this is almost definitely not a watershed moment showcasing Afghan government strength and law enforcement, but it is a positive development nonetheless, one that can hopefully lead to a greater sense of citizen faith in the government’s ability to protect and serve them.

Afghan Refugees
The Afghan government is portraying its growing strength in another area, its refugee and returnee situation. The International Conference on the Return and Reintegration of Afghan Refugees, co-hosted by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, which ‘expressed its intent to take overall responsibility for planning and implementing its national development strategy.’ The US state department has programmed $500 million dollars to aid the refugees and returnees, a large majority of funds needed, but the Afghan government has another opportunity to show its people what it is capable of.

U.S.-Afghan Women’s Council
US Under Secretary of State for Democracy and Global Affairs Paula Dobriansky just got back from a trip to Afghanistan where she met with President Karzai, Foreign Minister Spanta, and Women’s Affairs Minister Ghazanfar concerning the transition of the U.S.-Afghan Women’s Council to its permanent home at Georgetown University. Here is some real quick background on the Council:

The Council, which meets in Washington, DC and Kabul every year, was created by President Bush and Afghan President Hamid Karzai in 2002. Its mission is to help empower Afghan women to play a critical role in the reconstruction of their nation. The Council promotes public/private partnerships between U.S. and Afghan institutions and mobilizes private resources to help Afghan women gain the skills and education they need to improve their status and economic well-being. It also seeks to improve women’s access to health care and reduce the adult illiteracy that impedes Afghan women’s progress.

Lastly, Joshua at Registan.net gives a fascinating overview of homosexual life in Afghanistan since the Taliban’s overthrow in 2001. Alas, like most things in life there have been positives closely aligned with dramatic negatives.

How does one reconcile the governmental promotion of atheism in a society with strongly entrenched religious beliefs and customs? The Chinese communist government has tried to square this circle for years now, and the Xinjiang Province’s Uighur Muslim majority has proven its greatest challenge. Edward Wong of the New York Times explores this societal conflict and reports on the most recent Chinese government efforts to control and undermine Xinjiang’s Uighur Muslims.

Here is a portion of Wong’s article where he discusses rising Chinese government attempts to restrict Islamic practices in Xinjiang, emphasizing that a more serious ‘crackdown’ may be in the works:

Many of the rules have been on the books for years, but some local governments in Xinjiang have publicly highlighted them in the past seven weeks by posting the laws on Web sites or hanging banners in towns.

Anti-China forces in the West and separatist forces are trying to carry out “illegal religious activities and agitate religious fever,” he said, and “the field of religion has become an increasingly important battlefield against enemies.”

The Chinese government does indeed face a violent threat from extremist elements in Xinjiang and from foreign sources who support the province’s muslims, but these crackdowns and rules targeting Uighurs are mainly imposed to further expand the government’s rule over the region. Wong details the government’s efforts in controlling Uighurs’ Hajj to Mecca and Ramadan practices, both sacred rights for all Muslims. The Chinese government fears the spread of Islamic radicalization and separatist motivations and organizations, and both of these they believe can be combatted if they strengthen their control over the Xinjiang region and its people. That is why the government has been importing Han Chinese into the region in great numbers, diluting the Uighur majority and their cultural and societal norms, and building infrastructure, specifically railways, which connect the region to Central Asia and more importantly, to eastern China.

How successful do you think the Chinese government’s anti-religious and anti-Uighur custom laws have been and will be? Are these measures, some quite oppressive and restrictive, more likely to sow a more governable and stable state for the Chinese government or are they more likely to foment greater amounts and degrees of radicalization and separatist feelings and actions? What would a McCain or Obama administration policy be towards the Chinese government’s treatment and efforts in Xinjiang?

(Photo Source: New York Times)

On October 6, Federal Judge Ricardo Urbina ordered the release of 17 Uighurs imprisoned at Guantanamo Bay, arguing that the US government had no evidence and no right to hold them as ‘enemy combatants.’ The Bush administration has already stated that these 17 prisoners are not a security threat and conceded that they do not plan on accusing them as enemy combatants anymore. However, Urbina’s ruling is being fought by the Bush administration, who fear it will set a precedent for the removal and possible allowance of Guantanamo prisoners into the US homeland as other nations are not likely to want these prisoners.

As we know the Uighurs, who were picked up in Afghanistan/Pakistan, are not going back to China, where they most likely would be welcomed with torture or imprisonment, and most other nations do not desire to anger the Chinese government by taking them on. This leaves the US government with very few choices, one being sending them to small nations that support Taiwan and therefore are already earning China’s ire, and secondly letting them come and stay in the US where a network of Uighur immigrants have shown interest in hosting them and smoothing their transition. The US obviously owes these prisoners more than they could ever payback, and a decent life in the US would be a good start, but the Bush administration fears this precedent will force them to admit all of Guantanamo’s prisoners in the future.

Now this issue is very controversial and involves some complicated legal dealings and definitions, which I am far from an expert on, but this is an important aspect of US relations with Muslims throughout the world, and obviously in China’s Xinjiang Province and Central Asia. Whatever the reasons the US had for arresting these Uighur prisoners now appears to be discredited and the US must fix the situation as soon as possible and this does involve freeing them to a safe location where they can renew their lives. As of right now, their status is still in limbo.

While I have not discussed legal mandates for holding suspected enemy combatants on this page, I have looked into the Xinjiang’s province and its Uighur majority’s population battles with the Chinese government and with radical Islam. There is definitely a connection between Uighur human and religious rights and the aftermath of 9/11, one that goes beyond those 17 prisoners. Peter Navarro author of ‘The Coming China Wars’ articulately describes how the Chinese government used 9/11 as a Golden Opportunity to get the US to either implicitly or explicitly let their government do what they needed to do to deal with their own ‘Muslim extremists’, the Uighurs in Xinjiang. After 2001, China sped up a Hanification policy for the province, bringing in Han Chinese and deporting Uighur women of birthing age to the factories in the east. Navarro rightly sees this process as radicalizing elements of the Uighur community, which he argues led to the terrorist attacks against Chinese police forces around the Olympics.

Now this goes back as to how the US, Chinese government, and the world see the situation. Are the Uighurs an oppressed community who’s way of life is being stripped from them by a brutal overlord? or Are they tainted by other Muslim extremists in the Middle East and Central Asia region who vow for the destruction of western and modern society? Do both elements exist? To what degree?

Any way one sees the situation, I would argue that the US detainment of these 17 Uighurs could only further the radicalization of their community. If the US government does not have evidence that these 17 individuals were enemy combatants it must find a suitable place for them to freely live, otherwise, it risks alienating the whole Uighur community, a group who is busy trying to fight for their way of life against the Chinese government.

These are complicated issues and conflicts, and in no way am I defending terror attacks by any group, nor do I want to ignore the dilemma the US government finds itself in in dealing with what to do with prisoners in this still new way of warfare. Balancing acts are occurring everywhere: within the US government, regarding what to do with enemy combatants; the Chinese government, with their Hanification and Tibetan policies conflicting with their international presence and stature; and with the Uighur people, who are seeing their way of life being taken away, but with the utilization of terrorist attacks as probably the most effective but inhumane and possibly counterproductive method of achieving autonomy.

(Map Source: Economist)

Here are a few interesting items to keep you cool this weekend.

The Central Asia plus Japan Dialogue fourth representational level meeting took place in Tashkent on July 15. For Japan the meeting was ‘aimed to deepen the multifaceted interaction with Central Asia and Uzbekistan, provide for stability and regional security, enhance the trade and economic relations.’

The US Senate confirmed General Petraeus as the chief of Middle East and Central Asia Central Command last week. I guess this is kind of important, right? Petraeus replaces Admiral William Fallon, who stepped down a couple months ago (rumored to be because of policy differences with the Bush Administration regarding Iran policy), and will be replaced by Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno as the lead military man in Iraq.

Not sure how big this story may get, but Stephen Payne, a Houston businessman and GOP activist, is now under a House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform investigation, probing whether he violated federal law by suggesting he could arrange access to top White House officials for Kyrg government officials, including President Akayev, in return for large donations to the Bush presidential library. There is a recorded video of Payne and Akayev meeting and discussing meetings with President Bush and VP Cheney in exchange for hundreds of thousands of dollars to the library.

I wrote a short exert about the passing of Kyrg author/ambassador Chinghiz Aitmatov, and now here’s a sad story from Eurasia.net discussing Aitmatov accomplishments and Kyrgyzstan’s lack of an ability to produce another influential writer or artist.

I am originally a California boy, but I had no idea the northern California city of Fremont had a significant Afghan population, which according to this interesting story, it does!  The piece discusses a local book club called ‘One Book, One Community‘ which recommended its readers check out ‘Three Cups of Tea,” the true story of Greg Mortenson’s travels and charity work in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Apparently, Mortenson was saved by a group of villagers in Pakistan after fallin g from K2 in the Himalyas, and decided to show his appreciation by building schools in remote parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan (now I just hope the Taliban doesn’t burn them all down). Anyways, the city of Fremont and even its mayor have taken on this mission and started donating to the cause themselves.

How bout some early Monday morning polygamy talk? Radio Free Europe reports that the Kazak parliament has been debating a new draft law that would allow any man who is able to meet his second and third wife’s financial needs and obtain their consent can have multiple marriages. The parliament has debated this issue before without passing and implementing a law and from the looks of it there is a fair amount of opposition to the legislation to keep it from passing, but the practice of polygamy does exist and their are some demographic and rational reasons for it be formalized in the law.

All of the Central Asian states have experienced polygamy throughout their history, as it allowed in the Islamic religion and culture, and after the fall of the Soviet Empire it reportedly enjoyed a resurgence. Kazakhstan decriminalized the practice in 1998, but all of the other CA states still treat it as a crime, though one rarely prosecuted. Women’s groups in Kazakhstan do not support ‘polygamy’ per se, but they do desire that these 2nd and 3rd wives have protection under the law, which they have none of as of right now. Polygamy does provide one answer the demographic challenges facing most of the CA nations as it allows financially stable men to take on more than one poor, destitute women and provide for them and their children. For instance, in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, where a large amount of the male population travels abroad for employment and has many men who may never come back, some people say that the ability for a man of wealth to take more than one wife ‘benefits’ wives and children. We’ll have to see how far the Kazak parliament goes in formalizing this type of marriage.

Here are some other pertinent religious and cultural pieces from Forum 18, a great watchdog publication for the region’s human and religious rights;

1. “Why can’t all religious communities have places of worship?” - examines Turkmenistan’s government’s refusal to let non-Islamic religions have a place to worship.

2. “Kazakhstan: Alarm at state-backed planned new Religion Law” - discusses a planned law restricting ‘freedom of thought’ and penalizing ‘unapproved’ religious activities.

3. “Kazakhstan: A law on Non-Freedom of Conscience” - discusses the same law as above, but in greater detail. And here’s the latest update on the law’s possible passing with some modifications.

(Photo: Radio Free Europe)

Since the new year, there has been a serious rise in attacks against non-slavic immigrants in Russia, mainly in the city of Moscow. Human rights groups accuse nationalist extremists, with neo-Nazi sympathies, of murdering between 41-53 immigrants, most of which are from Central Asia or the Caucacus. These types of attacks have occurred in recent years in Russia, but they are becoming more organized and severe. Many of the victims have been stabbed 20-30 times during an attack and far-right websites warn that future attacks may include the use of bombs and guns. Semyon Charny, an expert at the Moscow Bureau for Human Rights, said the situation in Moscow was ‘like a safari.’

The city of Moscow has a large Central Asian minority, about 850,000 of the city’s 10 million inhabitants, who many perform manual labor positions in which there are not enough ethnic Russians to perform. Unfortunately, many Russian citizens seem to see the immigrants as threatening and weak government oversight and policing has helped provide legitimacy to these feelings. In fact, the government has recently passed anti-immigration legislation which some have argued gave tacit approval to the attacks.

Steps have been taken to try to curb this violence by human rights groups, the Russian government, and CA and Caucacus authorities. In late February, the Russian police arrested many leaders of various far-right groups, and in at least one case one leader received a conviction for ‘agitating inter-ethnic discord,’ but the violence has continued as others have taken their place. Raimkul Attakurov, ambassador for Kyrgyzstan in Russia, wrote a letter to Russia’s human rights ombudsman calling the incidents ‘the savage attacks of fascist monsters.’ Embassies have told their citizens to keep a low profile, not to go out on their own, especially to bars, and be well-dressed. Russian government officials have also sat down to discuss the problem with local Azeri, Kyrgyz, Tajik local community leaders, but alas nothing has curbed the ethnic violence.

It seems clear that outright racism has been a factor in these attacks. Opinion polls show that many Russians are ‘uncomfortable’ with the presence of these CA/Caucacus immigrants, even if they aren’t ‘taking their jobs.’ Putin’s domestic and foreign policy has worked hard to bring back Russia’s sense of importance in the world and in regional affairs and this may be helping to create a backlash against non-slavs in Moscow and St. Petersburg.

What should the Russian government do to curb these attacks? What should the governments of the CA/Caucasus states do? I read that there had been diplomatic calls against these abuses from several states, like the above mentioned Kyrg Ambassador Attakurov, but did not find many other official protests. The CA states depend on employment and remittances from Russia so their governments obviously do not want to upset the boat, but this is becoming a serious problem. These neo-Nazi groups have a fascist agenda of violence and hatred that cannot be accepted/condoned/pacified/ignored.

In some ways, it’s always better to think in terms of interlocking regions rather than states–and with Central Asia as a nexus of interlocked regions, it’s most important.  Right now, Pakistan is –depending on one’s point of view–in more upheaval, or– determined to clamp down on upheaval for once and all.  For Central Asia watchers, the question goes past Pakistan alone, into the implications for Afghanistan-and for Central Asia in general.

Brief timeline:
September 10, 2007: Nawaz Sharif, a previous Pakistan President, returns to Pakistan to get ready for elections.  He is deported back to Saudi Arabia due to corruption charges against him in Pakistan.  This makes no sense to me, but there it is.

October 18th, 2007: Benazir Bhutto, another previous Pakistan President, declares she will run for office.  She sort of filled that media gap for the West: a symbol of progress (female president of developing state who interviewed well) but has also not escaped accusations of governmental corruption–and not just in Pakistan, but also in Swiss courts.

October 19, 2007: A rally for Benazir Bhutto’s candidacy is bombed, despite tight security.  One hundred and forty people are killed.  Although some suspect Taliban or MQM, Ms. Bhutto is on record saying that it could also be anti-democratic members of the Pakistan military (Mr. Musharraf is, or was, General Musharraf before the 1999 military coup that overthrew Mr. Sharif).

November 3, 2007: President Musharraf declares martial law. 
1. The Chief Justice Mr. Chaudhry, of the judiciary branch is told his services were not needed.  In the past, Justice Chaudhry has ruled against the government’s position.
2. Ms. Bhutto’s house is surrounded by troops (she was out of the country, but then returned). 
3. A prominent oppositionist and lawyer, Mr. Ahsan is detained, and so is popular sports figure and oppositionist Mr. Khan. 
4. Private TV goes off the air–that’s the end of the free press, in other words. 
5. The Constitution is suspended. 
Mr. Musharraf is doing this to prevent Pakistan from “committing suicide.”  Well, it looks like he killed democratic government in so doing.  But he wasn’t quite done:

November 4, 2007: The round-up and arrest of more than 500 opposition figures was completed today.  BBC and CNN were also taken off the air.  Other party workers for Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Sharif were arrested.  Some figures are also detained in house arrest.

The rumor is that elections, supposed to be held mid-January, will be delayed for almost a year.

Radiating effects:
According to the NYT, there’s 25,000 U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan, and more security problems are inevitable.  Once Mr. Musharraf is done jailing all of the middle class people who are interested in democracy, presumbably there will be a new push in the NorthWest territories to get Islamic extremists with bombs in hand.  Already there will be migratory pressures, as people flee arrest.  Then there will be strategic deployments of Pakistani weapons and troops, marauders and terrorists.  This will create even more unrest and instability on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.

Yes, and then other programs, already dealing with security problems such as the UN’s Aid Mission to Afghanistan, will have more people to look after and less security to do it in.  Likewise, whatever opium, morphine, and heroin interdiction programs are in operation right now in Afghanistan will be harder to implement, which has particular effect in Central Asia–especially Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan.  Also it is a problem for Iran, which tends to disrupt the already fragile social structures on the other side of Afghanistan: the Afghanistan-Iran border.

All you have to do is look at a map to see these problems radiating further: the rest of Central Asia, northern India, the Caspian, the Trans-caucasus. 

Further reading:
Thanks, BBC: English translation of Mr. Musharraf’s November 3 declaration of martial law

I’m afraid the Central Asia Beat was beyond my poor capabilities while in Central America.  There just wasn’t good enough Internet access to do the research–and frankly, this “Foust Format” takes hours with a good connection. 

However, it’s worth it: you get a really good sense of what’s going on, yeah?  Hope it’s useful to more than myself out there–here goes:

Kazakhstan: Economic engines are Go:
–According to the European Rubber Journal (oh, yeah, what a great name–but it’s about tires, people) and Forbes,  Finland’s Nokian Tyres will be working with Kazakhstan’s Ordabasy JSC to build a factory in Astana.  The tires will serve the Kazakh and Russian Markets, eventually going into Eastern European distribution. 
–The laws passed by the Kazakhstan legislature concerning subsoil rights–and oilfield expropriation–are a significant threat by themselves to ENI and Kashagan field operations, the BTC line over by Azerbaijan, and so forth.  Yet expropriation legislation is not a good sign for investment by other industries  either.  Looks like Mr. Nazarbaev will not sign the law, which is exactly right–a reminder of state power in the continuing saga of oil in Central Asian diplomacy.
–Germany will sponsor Kazakhstan at the WTO and with the OSCE.  A powerful sponsor doing Europe’s work for it–and probably gaining insights (and investment inroads) thereby.

Kyrgyzstan: You can vote, but . . .
–REFERENDUM Sunday, October 21, on the Kyrgyzstan Constitution.  Lots of wrangling, as Adjar Kurtov’s article at Ferghana.ru notes.  Numerous drafts of dubious constitutions have been written and approved, sometimes amended without due legislative process or transparency.  The people are rightfully confused–even the experts are finding it difficult to keep track–and more so because the draft document’s publication was delayed, making it impossible to give it a proper perusal.  However, Kyrgyz police did impound an issue of independent newspaper Alkak this week.
–In the meantime, to add to the bewilderment, a new political party for Bakiev: the Ak-Jol Party, the party for “workers and men of action”, according to Bakiev.  I guess the “women for action” and the unemployed of both sexes did not line up to be consulted, as the party registration, platform, and membership were fulfilled in one day.  Kyrgyzstani Muslims are also concerned–apparently they were not consulted either.  Separation of church and state are a good idea, but the manner of the referendum will also probably ignite a cultural conflict, again through poor writing and quick-n-dirty work.  The new party and referendum are widely expected to increase Mr. Bakiev’s power over the state, and help him with upcoming elections.  Oh, and the election protocols are still screwed up, so results are easily skewed. 
–Asel writes over at neweurasia.net that despite all of this good referendum news, the PM of Kyrgyzstan has publicly stated that people should not panic.  Uh, that’ll fix it all right.
–Dateline, Bishkek: This past Wednesday, October 17th, Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan signed an agreement on military cooperation, to involve training starting next year.

Mongolia:
–Great news for Mongolia: USD 285 million will be headed for the state under a Millenium Challenge Compact over five years.
–U.S. firm UTStarcom is in trouble with the SEC for attempting to bribe Mongolian officials back in 2005. . .
–Uranium development at Gurvanbulag Field, by a Canada-based transnational Western Prospector. 

Tajikistan:
–The Asian Development Bank and UK’s Department for Int’l Development are co-sponsoring a private sector development strategy grant totalling USD 2 million, from this month for another 3 years.  the grant is designed to help aid Tajikistan simplify and streamline institutional barriers to private business, a move which is Definitely in the right direction. 
–ADB is also funding USD 22 million of a USD 28.5 million flood management project for the Khatlon province in Tajikistan’s Southwest.
–Review of post-conflict reconstruction, ten years after the Tajik Civil War: generally positive, according to Josh Kucera’s report of proceedings.
–Vadim at neweurasia.net has two articles related to Migration this week: the first on Pamiri society, which is dwindling; the second, on beaten-up and framed Tajikistani university students in Russia.  Putting these stories together shows again how important it is for Central Asian labor to migrate for economic opportunity, and just how high the stakes are.   
–Students aren’t in school: they’re picking cotton right now.
–Jehovah’s Witnesses banned throughout Tajikistan.

Turkmenistan:
–The biggest news is the new rapprochement between Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.  RFE/RL has a great backgrounder on this.  As part of the ceremonies, Mr. Karimov has become an “honorary elder” of the Turkmen people.  Tangible results: The Journal of Turkish Weekly has the details of new business/economic deals (which must again underscore Turkey’s role in Central Asian economic affairs) including six new enterprises. . .  a statement of economic cooperation was also signed and a joint communique issued.  turkmenistan.ru reports that Uzbekistan is sending 180 spraying machines and associated spare parts to Turkmenistan.
–UNFPA Director Mr. Haled Filbi comes to visit and will speak to Ministers of medical, education, and foreign affairs, which gives the clue what the UNFPA proposes to do and Turkmenistan proposes to accept. 

Uzbekistan
–See Turkmenistan, above.  President K was also given an Akhalteke horse, one of Turkmenistan’s prized cultural icons.
–Japan is invited to seek Uranium within the state. 
–Nathan Hamm at registan.net notes that the EU has lifted the visa ban on Uzbekistani officials–scooping everyone on this one–go, Nathan! And has something to say about the quality of EU-Uzbekistan sanctions in the first place.  Check it out.

Xinjiang:
–Whoa, China’s Sinopec found a lot of oil in Xinjiang. . .Tahe Oil field has 1 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) according to estimates. 
–Double whoa, China is still calling Xinjiang a hotbed of unrest. . . well, they didn’t say That, they said that agitators from overseas were causing a problem for them in Xinjiang.  Terror specialists and human rights watchers need to continue to take note.

Okay, lots of news as usual. . . what a great region to be interested in!  Have a great weekend!

Diagram: Northwestern.edu
 

Every year a couple of stories come out about serf labor in the cotton fields of Central Asia, right about the time that the cotton crop gets harvested.  That day has again arrived this year, but with new, tougher problems for Central Asia’s agricultural laborers and for the state leaders that have made this choice.

The wreck of human capital equals the wreck of state capital
Some judicious reading over the past six months has taught me that the conditions for agricultural labor are poor: the accommodations are inadequate, the food is lousy/not enough.  The pay is small, it is paid less than 100% of the time, and paid whenever the state feels like it, which is Not Right Now.  All sorts of people, including those better utilized elsewhere, are pressed into cotton harvesting.  These include: schoolchildren; teachers; university students.  None of these impressed workers are moving forward in their own lives.  Nor are they moving the state forward as part of an educated, thinking, and contributing populace.  their lives and their studies are interrupted in order to fund today’s dwindling state export dollars on a crop which is essentially ruining Central Asia’s ecology and future ability to earn income from agriculture. 

Yet there’s more than one train wreck here
The newest problems are those which concern those that want to work and can’t.  Little by little, the options of the desperate but willing continue to disappear.  The cost of working — and the barriers to it –become higher and higher.

Uzbekistan, for instance, has recently forbidden its agricultural workers to enter Kyrgyzstan to find work.  According to this Ferghana.ru article, the cotton crop in Uzbekistan is already harvested, and Kyrgyzstan is just beginning its work–jobs are available.  This would be a prime chance for agricultural workers to bring money home to their Uzbekistan families under the remittance economy model.  Security fears post-Andijan fuel this directive.   The cost to the people and to the state for heavy security continues to mount–and increasingly fails to work.   Without outlets for legal commerce, only illegal commerce becomes available.

Previously, Uzbekistan has been charging its migrant workers to leave: an exit visa of sorts, and then taxing their remittance monies to the family, and then charging them when they enter the country again.  Immigration is further limited by Uzbekistan’s strange sense of public relations: denying that the people need economic assistance and/or jobs, they have created policies where people cannot act as if they need work.  Thus, people who need work cannot find work, and people who could bring money to Uzbekistan cannot obtain it.  This circular reasoning contributes to a spiral of economic instability and eventually, security instability.

Government response: more limits, less opportunities
CIS labor ministers are concerned about labor migration, but they have only one-half of the equation.  One can possibly stop illegal migrants, but the urge to migrate for economic reasons occurs when there are less opportunities at home.  Building state capacity in these states will reduce the enforcement cost of stopping them. 

For many of us, these stark facts form an object lesson in how governments have the power to impede markets, virtue, and even the pursuit of necessity.  For those that live it, it is a grim reality that means lost opportunity, lost earning power, malnutrition and for some, death.  The cycle of lost capacity continues to drag Central Asia’s economies down.  One thing is certain: the people work.  But the other thing is, their governments frequently ensure that they work in vain.

Further reading:
Short great article on migrant flows in 2006 at Ferghana.ru, with pictures

Map: Washington.edu