Afghanistan and Central Asia

Karin Esposito, the FPA’s blogger on Religion and Politics and Project Manager for the Tajikistan Dialogue Project in Dushanbe, recently wrote about a new draft law ‘Freedom of Religious Practices and Religious Organizations’ being debated by the Kyrg government. Karin, with the help of an article by Erica Marat, discusses the reasons and possible ramifications of the proposed legislation, which Kyrg’s neighbor Tajikistan is also considering. The law ‘purports to prevent the emergence of totalitarian religious organizations’ by introducing more restrictive registration requirements.

This new proposed law once again brings to the forefront the continual debate between security and individual and group liberties. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan do indeed have a real security threat in radical Islamist groups and individual that threaten not only the state, but also the nation’s and region’s citizens, as I discussed last week the rising number of militants making their way to the Afghan/Pakistan border to join the insurgency from these Central Asian states. But though the governments of Tajik and Kyrg are far from the most repressive in the region, they are still far from democracies and repress their citizens’ rights, including religious. We can only hope that the legislative process in both these states is open to debate from several sectors of society and it has the best interests of all their citizens at heart. The line between trampling on a citizen’s rights and keeping them safe is a continual test of all democracies and governments, those as old as the US and those as young as these CA countries.

Also, from time to time, I will do a post on Karin’s Religion and Politics blog. Here’s my first.

Unfortunately before the Olympic Games could even begin in China, a terrorist event has occurred. Two bombs exploded on commuter buses in the city of Kunming, killing two and injuring several others. The Chinese police would not officially classify the attack as a terrorist incident, but that’s what the evidence points too. The Chinese government’s number one concern at the current moment is to have a successful, peaceful, and ‘quiet’ Olympic Games and stopping terrorist attacks and boisterous political protests tops this agenda.

The Chinese authorities have taken many measures, some of them basic and some severe, to intimidate and curb possible terrorist or political groups and individuals from ‘acting out’ during the games. For the Chinese government, the Uighur majority province of Xinjiang is a major concern and they have taken many police actions there to keep a lid on region’s independence movement, much like the situation in Tibet. The government announced that they arrested 82 suspected terrorists from the region and to board a plane in the area’s Urumqi Airport a passenger has to go through six checkpoints. The Chinese authorities are specifically worried about the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), an underground separatist organization based in several CA states and in Xinjiang, and recently performed an atrocious act to intimidate the nation’s populace. Thousands of Chinese students and workers were bused into a city square and were made to watch the execution of three convicted ETIM members who were said to have plotted attacks on the games.

The Washington Post has covered these stories very well and had this to say about the consequences of such harsh anti-terror/protest police methods;

“With the Games three weeks away, the precautions already have proved so sweeping that some observers question whether the sense of fellowship and fun that is supposed to accompany the Olympics can survive. Alongside the crackdown against Muslim extremists here in Xinjiang, for instance, have come confusing new visa restrictions, multiple roadside checkpoints, reinforced pat-downs at airports and subway stations, and raids on bars popular among foreigners. The result has been an atmosphere of coercion, not celebration.”

For the Chinese government though, a safe and stable Olympics may be acceptable enough;

“A safe Olympics is the biggest indicator of the success of the Games,” Xi Jinping, a member of the party’s elite Politburo Standing Committee and the senior official supervising preparations, said in a recent speech. “A safe Olympics is also the biggest indicator of the positive reflection of our nation’s image.”

When you’re watching the Olympics and everything seems to be going swimmingly, just remember that behind the tranquility could be quite the eruption.

(Photo/Map Source: The Washington Post)

Kazakhstan has found itself in the news lately, firstly, to no one’s surprise concerning energy resources, as the nation has begun building a natural gas pipeline connecting Central Asia to China and Gazprom’s recent announcement that they expect to double the price they pay for Central Asian gas (bad news for their Euro customers as Russia will not be the last entity to foot the bill). However, Kazakhstan’s leader, capital, and 2010 Chairmanship of the OSCE provide just a few other reasons for it to be in Central Asia’s spotlight.

Chairmanship of OSCE - OSCE Chairman-in-Office, Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb paid a visit to Astana last week and met with President Nazarbayev, leader of Senate, Foreign Minister Tazhin, and political party and civil society representatives. Stubb stated “Central Asia plays a key role in the OSCE, both as a region facing several challenges and as an active participant and supporter of the Organization’s plans to intensify engagement with Afghanistan.’ In reference to Kazak’s future chairmanship, Stubb stated the nation had a “unique chance to demonstrate its leadership by preparing carefully and by adopting and implementing reforms.” Now what could these reforms be, possibly democratic? Indeed, Stubb went on; “we welcome progress achieved so far, and hope to see swift continuation of reforms in fields such as media, elections and political parties.” Stubb went on to be more specific about these reforms, speaking of freedom of assembly, elections, religious freedom and religious associations, and ‘emphasized’ the ‘need for all political forces in society to have a chance to be heard.’ It would be a wonderful thing if Nazarbayev and the Kazak government could respond to these words and the 2010 chairmanship with real reform in these key sectors.

Ban Ki-Moon and Astana and Nazarbayev’s Birthday - UN General Secretary Ki-Moon spoke about Kazakhstan and its capitol and president’s birthday as well, but he left out the part about democracy. He expressed ‘admiration’ with the role the nation plays in the ‘provision of peace and stability’ in the region and gave his ‘warmest wishes’ to Astana’s 10 year jubilee and Nazarbayev’s birthday. Here is a quick history of the Kazak capitol. Nazarbayev has made quite the effort in modernizing the city in recent years and just made a speech detailing future improvements to what he calls ‘Central Asia’s first postindustrial city.’ In the speech, he discussed the development of high technological productions, service sectors, and the hope that the city will continue to become a regional business center. He concluded his speech, ‘Astana will be a city of high standards.’

One more bit of Kazak news: High level meetings have taken place recently between the leaders of Hungary and Kazakhstan as trade between the two states has considerably increased in recent years. A Hungarian diplomat stated that they consider Kazakhstan as a strategic partner.

That’s all folks, I hope I covered at least half of Kazak news.

Freedom House put two new reports out in June of interest: Nations in Transit 2008 Annual Report and Supporting Freedom’s Advocates?: An Analysis of the Bush Administration FY2008 Budget Request for Democracy and Human Rights (Follow the link down the page and download the pdf under ‘Past Reports’) These reports are linked in an unfortunate way, the decreasingly open and democratic nature of Central Asia’s regime is key to both of them.

The Nations in Transit report ‘measures progress and setbacks in democratization in 29 countries and administrative areas from Central Europe to the Eurasian region of the Former Soviet Union.’ In its overall analysis of the former Soviet States, specifically in Central Asia, the report stated; ‘In distinct contrast to the trajectories of the other regions, the former Soviet Union has moved toward a more deeply anchored authoritarian, democratic accountability is an ever-scarcer commodity.’ Dierdre Tynan of Eurasianet.org gives an overview and analysis of the report’s findings here.

The Transit report grades each country from 1-7, with 1 being the most free, on 8 different categories and then assigns a overall score. The categories are: 1. Electoral Process 2. Civil Society 3. Independent Media 4. Governance 5. National Democratic Governance 6. Local Democratic Governance 7. Judicial Framework and Independence 8. Corruption. In a sadly similar formula to last year’s Freedom of the World rankings for Central Asia, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan’s scores could hardly get lower, ranking near the bottom of the world, 6.93 and 6.86 disrespectfully. Kyrgyzstan received the best score in the region, 5.93, with Freedom House calling its 2005 upheaval now a time of ‘lost promise.’ Tajikistan’s score worsened from 5.96 to 6.07, with Freedom House stating that ‘justice is bought and sold’ in the nation.

Concerning the analysis of the Bush Administration’s FY2009 Budget Request for Democracy and Human Rights, Deirdre Tynan also wrote up another overview and critique (I haven’t had time yet to read FH whole report). Tynan reports that FH is disappointed in the President’s proposed budget for two critical reasons; 1. A lack of transparency as to where exactly the money where go, for instance to help civil society, rule of law? 2. Though the budget request increased overall, funds for most Central Asian states fell. The report argues that the US government needs to put more funds in developing the civil society of the region, particularly Kazakhstan, and has harsh words for Russia’s presence in the region, calling it a ‘negative influence over its former Soviet neighbors’ and as sliding evermore ‘towards increased autocracy.’ Freedom House leaves out hope that Congress will put the money back in when they have an opportunity to appropriate funds.

I couldn’t agree more with Freedom House about greater transparency in the appropriation of these funds, we should know where and to whom they are going. And I am more than sympathetic to their promotion of greater aid to support Central Asia’s civil society, independent media, and promotion of the rule of law and free and fair elections, but there are indeed strategic elements to consider, such as energy supplies and the fact that we need to work with these authoritative leaders at time on issues such as Afghanistan’s security. To leaders like, Islam Karimov, Berdymukhamedov, and Nazarbayev this money is aimed at their removal from power and that can’t sit too well, not to mention that China and Russia both see it as an affront to their regional interests and influence.

However, in the end, these are two informative, important, and brave reports by Freedom House.

On Friday, we discussed Russian President Medvedev’s recent three nation visit to Central Asia, a visit that seemingly had one thing on its mind; gas and oil. A couple weeks ago, EU representatives made their second major stopover in a matter of months to Turkmenistan to discuss energy, specifically gas reserves for the Nabucco pipeline which would circumvent Russian territory and land space, and trade, basically getting Turkmenistan into the WTO. However, just by taking a glance at the EU’s first annual Progress Report of their 2007-2013 EU Strategy for Central Asia, one can see that the EU is interested in more than just oil/gas/trade. Human Rights issues dot the document and EU perspectives on their role in the region.

The Report stated 5 Goals for the EU-Central Asian Strategy:

1. Promotion of Human Rights and Democratization

2. Enhancement of Education

3. Increasing the Rule of Law

4. Promote Regional Integration in the areas of environment and water

5. Coordination on Border and Drug Trafficking Management

Here is an analysis of the EU-Central Asian Strategy of the its 1-year progress report by Eurasia Daily and a local one by Kazinform. The Eurasia Daily quotes the EU report’s analysis of its accomplishments, calling them ‘encouraging’ and that ‘after only one year, a new quality of cooperation has evolved between Central Asia and the EU.’ Concerning the sticky issue of human rights promotion, the report asserted that all 5 CA states were willing to commit to the human rights dialogue. The Eurasia Daily analysis of the report also acknowledges the Strategy’s critics, some who argue that the overly ideological (idealistic?) approach the group takes with the region’s authoritative states is excessive, and others who instead assert that the EU plays too much realpolitik in region, ignoring human rights and democracy issues in order to secure energy resources and strategic interests. Here are two voices who agree with latter assertion: Danish journalist and political scientist Michael Andersen and Cornelius Graubner at the Central Asian-Caucacus Institute.

Like all things in domestic and international politics, the truth is somewhere in the middle. There is no doubt in my mind that the EU’s belief and policy’s in regards to human rights and democracy promotion are genuine. Putting a liberal bent on geopolitical policies in a region without a history of such ideals is a challenging endeavor to say the least. Europe desires relief from one autocratic energy ruler, Russia, and to accomplish this they need to deal with other autocratic rulers. But unlike Russia and China, the EU blatantly advocates and concretely promotes human rights and democracy in the region to go along with its material interests. This can be exemplified by a recent visit to CA by the German Commissioner of Human Rights. The Commissioner was due to speak and listen to civil society and opposition groups in several nations. This small visit by a ‘Commissioner’ may not be as significant or visible as an oil/gas deal, such as Nabucco, but it has an affect, and hopefully this ripples and ripples throughout the region.

Today I have several stories to treat you to; some old, some new, some interesting, some bor…well you get the idea.

• Last March, Turkmen President Berdymukhamedov announced his country’s second military doctrine. The change appears to be in accord with Turkmenistan’s recent more open diplomatic and international posture, a strong departure from its recent isolationist past. Though one must not expect too much change too soon, as Berdymukhamedov stated that the nation’s military doctrine will ’still be based on permanent neutrality of the state and the acknowledgment that necessary levels of defense capability must be maintained.’
• Co-Chair Alcee Hastings on the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE) and a bipartisan Congressional delegation, led by Senator Ben Cardin, was the largest ever diplomatic delegation to visit Kazakhstan. The attendees discussed Kazak’s 2010 OSCE Chairmanship as well as energy, igration, security, religious freedom and women’s rights. Here’s a telling and hopeful quote from Chair Hastings; “I think it will be extremely successful. The reason is that Kazakhstan is the first Central Asian country to chair. The simple fact that I believe - this will help Kazakhstan and this will help others in Central Asia and by the time that they finish their chair they will have learned a lot and that will be implemented here, that will benefit the people of both sides and reform elections and human rights here in this country.” It is much too early to tell how the Chairmanship will help open up Kazak or the CA states’ governments, but this particular delegation seemed hopeful and they may have possibly laid down some groundwork to hold the Kazak government accountable in its claims of transparency and allowance of individual freedoms.
• Pakistan’s new Prime Minister, Yousuf Raza Gilani stated that ‘foreign elements’ from the CA region were behind the latest unrest in his country’s tribal belt, aka the Pashtun-majority Federal Administrated Tribal Areas. Gilani gave no evidence to back up his claim. He also announced his government was adopting a 3-pronged strategy to bring peace and stability to the tribal areas; 1. Political Dialogue 2. Development of the area 3. Use of violence as a ‘last resort.’ Seems like the same old carrot and the stick policy.
• Paris’s Luxemburg palace held a scientific conference titled ‘Central Asia facing Globalization’ this past month. The event featured regional experts and local and international diplomats.
• Lastly, Mongolia is not an ‘official’ part of this blogs Central Asian theme, but it is an important regional country nonetheless. It is a democratic state and US ally sandwiched between the authoritarian and strong great powers of Russia and China and has a historical legacy and connections to nearly all the CA states. Here is a quick ‘Five Facts’ about the Asia’s landlocked giant.

The region of Central Asia is home to several functioning and capable radical terrorist groups. Just last May, Interpol rounded up 176 terrorist suspects in Europe from 19 countries, and unfortunately all 5 major CA states were represented. French authorities also announced the arrest of 10 other suspects for financing Islamic terrorist groups, including the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU).

Speaking of IMU, Turkish Weekly released their ‘Country Reports on Terrorism 2007: South and Central Asia Overview,’ which provides their overall analysis of the region’s terrorist situation and describes Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan’s situation in-depth. The report does a solid job going over active terrorist groups, terrorist incidents throughout the past year, and US/CA state security cooperation to counter terrorism in Afghanistan and in each respective CA state. The report is very ‘matter of fact’ but it does offer one policy prescription or symptom of why terrorism exists and how it can be curbed in the region; they argue that widespread poverty and government repression, especially of religious groups, has helped create an environment for breeding terrorist elements.

The Turkish Weekly report discusses a few instances where American interests were directly targeted for terrorist acts by CA Islamic terrorist groups, specifically 2004 Islamic Jihad Group’s suicide bombing at the US Embassy in Tashkent. But in reading the report one gets the impression that these groups are mainly after disrupting and overthrowing their CA state autocrats, Matthew Crosston of The Middle East Review of International Affairs believes this is dangerous thing to believe and rely on. He writes an in-depth article on the Ferghana Valley radical Islamist terrorist group Hizb al-Tahrir (HT) and argues that the group has aims that go beyond the Valley and hope to reach US interests where ever they lie. His analysis and breakdown of HT’s ideology and purpose is well-researched and thought-out. Crosston believes that the groups beliefs and aims, which he describes as similar to Bin Ladin’s, are completely contrary to the US’s and that there will butt heads sooner or later. How should the US combat this group and others like it in CA one might ask? Crosston is highly critical of the current US policy, which he believes just overlooks political and religious repression in order to secure short term gains in Afghanistan and regional security. He asserts ‘The problem is that it {US} does not attempt to make its voice heard on these issues {democratic rights in CA}. Instead, issues of security and cooperation in assisting in the global war against terror have taken sole priority.’ In the long term, Crosston argues that this type of policy will come back to haunt the US.

What do you think about all this? Are the HT and other CA based terrorist groups capable of, and do they even really desire to, hurt the US and its interests? Is the current US policy in the region to favorable to security concerns over democracy promotion? Does poverty and religious/political suppression create terrorist or are other factors at play, religious ideals for instance?

Weeks back we discussed the media rollback within the Central Asia states, emphasized in a report by Freedom House, and last week I quickly mentioned a World’s Association of Newspapers report that also painted a bleak picture of media rights in CA. Today I have two stories that further showcase the region’s not only lack of media freedom, but also an outright battle against it by the region’s state governments. I also have another story that though has a positive slant, still portrays the region’s free press weaknesses.

Radio Free Europe reports on the story of Avas Saipov and his search for the murderers of his son, Journalist Alisher Saipov, who was murdered last October leaving his Kyrgyzstan office. Avas blames the Karimov government and Kyrg government for the attack and demands justice. He claims the murder was politically motivated because of Alisher’s journalistic work on corruption between the Kyrg and Uzbek governments and the upcoming December of 2007 presidential election for Karimov. Alisher also reported on human rights violations against Muslims in Ferghana Valley, interviewed members of banned religious groups like Hizb ut-Tahrir and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, looked into the 2005 Andijon incident in Uzbekistan and even visited a refugee camp holding some of its victims. These are all issues and stories that the Karimov and other CA state governments want kept either in the shadows or at least under their control so it is no wonder Alisher came under some heat. Avas, the journalist’s father, stated ‘Why were they interested in this {his work}? Because they did not like the truth.’ Sometimes it’s that simple. At the end of the article, there are three short listings of Kyrg and Uzbek government transgressions curbing media rights and targeting Radio Free Europe journalists.

Internet Freedom

The independent websites of Fergana.ru, uznews.net, and ‘Uzbekistan’s Civil Society’ have all placed a special emblem (above left) on their homepages which says ‘This Site Is Blocked in Uzbekistan.’ They are calling on other Uzbek government banned websites to join their anti-censorship campaign ‘to demonstrate how many news websites are inaccessible in the country.’ Radio Free Europe reports that ever since the 2005 Andijon incidents, the Uzbek government has held a tight lid on all Uzbek Internet service, including blocking websites of all opposition groups and indepenent media outlets. Reporters Without Borders puts Uzbek and Turkmenistan on their short list of world’s greatest ‘Internet Enemies’ for good reason. What these websites are doing will not bring down any autocratic government or release press freedom in these countries by itself, but they valuable stances of freedom and showcases of tyranny that will be crucial in the long run in spreading freedom and openness in Central Asia and in the world. When you see tyranny, do not let it go unnoticed.

Speaking of Turkmenistan, the Associated Press reports that its government has begun to allow private citizens to connect to the Internet, connecting about 20 homes a day, mainly in the capital Ashgabat. Before only government, diplomatic officials and major international companies could use the Internet. Before we start celebrating, it is still unclear just how many Turks can afford to pay for the service and if the government will really offer it the general population. It is also dubious to think that many websites will not be banned. But all in all, this has to be considered a welcome move from a government that just years before had a media that was strictly concentrated on and by one person, former President Niyazov.

(Photo: Radio Free Europe)

How bout some early Monday morning polygamy talk? Radio Free Europe reports that the Kazak parliament has been debating a new draft law that would allow any man who is able to meet his second and third wife’s financial needs and obtain their consent can have multiple marriages. The parliament has debated this issue before without passing and implementing a law and from the looks of it there is a fair amount of opposition to the legislation to keep it from passing, but the practice of polygamy does exist and their are some demographic and rational reasons for it be formalized in the law.

All of the Central Asian states have experienced polygamy throughout their history, as it allowed in the Islamic religion and culture, and after the fall of the Soviet Empire it reportedly enjoyed a resurgence. Kazakhstan decriminalized the practice in 1998, but all of the other CA states still treat it as a crime, though one rarely prosecuted. Women’s groups in Kazakhstan do not support ‘polygamy’ per se, but they do desire that these 2nd and 3rd wives have protection under the law, which they have none of as of right now. Polygamy does provide one answer the demographic challenges facing most of the CA nations as it allows financially stable men to take on more than one poor, destitute women and provide for them and their children. For instance, in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, where a large amount of the male population travels abroad for employment and has many men who may never come back, some people say that the ability for a man of wealth to take more than one wife ‘benefits’ wives and children. We’ll have to see how far the Kazak parliament goes in formalizing this type of marriage.

Here are some other pertinent religious and cultural pieces from Forum 18, a great watchdog publication for the region’s human and religious rights;

1. “Why can’t all religious communities have places of worship?” - examines Turkmenistan’s government’s refusal to let non-Islamic religions have a place to worship.

2. “Kazakhstan: Alarm at state-backed planned new Religion Law” - discusses a planned law restricting ‘freedom of thought’ and penalizing ‘unapproved’ religious activities.

3. “Kazakhstan: A law on Non-Freedom of Conscience” - discusses the same law as above, but in greater detail. And here’s the latest update on the law’s possible passing with some modifications.

(Photo: Radio Free Europe)

With an International Donor’s Conference being held in Paris next week on Afghanistan’s behalf, increasing pressure is being put on President Karzai’s ability to run the still unstable nation’s government. The donor’s aid is expected to target the sector’s of agriculture, energy, security and education, but a number of them are demanding that the conference also be used for a critical review of the government’s performance, in particular its failure to curb rampant corruption. The New York Times has reported that several world diplomats feel that Karzai is not doing enough to heed corruption, standing down to warlords controlling the nation’s narcotics trade, and simply not providing an effective governance as many of these donor nations are losing lives and spending billions. The fact that Karzai is up for reelection this year does not seem to be helping the situation as his campaign stance, has at times contradicted the desires of foreign donors and US/NATO policy.

The Bush administration has been a strong backer of Karzai and this continues to be true as First Lady Laura Bush visited the nation for the third time and backed Karzai’s government by publicly meeting with him and voicing the conference donor’s to give the nation what it needs. As on her two previous visits to Afghanistan, Mrs. Bush emphasized her support for women’s development and educational and training projects. She flew to Bamian, one of the country’s poorest provinces, which is overseen by Afghanistan’s only female governor, Habiba Sarabi, a former minister of women’s affairs. Mrs. Bush also met with several students and teachers.

In a connected story, the US State Department is promoting the success of the US-Afghan Women’s Council, which was created in 2002. The purpose of the Council is stated;

The Council promotes public-private partnerships between U.S. and Afghan institutions and mobilizes private sector resources to help Afghan women. Specifically, the Council seeks to identify concrete actions to bring real and practical benefits to the women of Afghanistan and to enable them to participate and take leadership roles in the political and economic life of their country. To this end, the Council focuses on four areas: political leadership and legal awareness, economic empowerment, education, and health. In 2006, it added a special children’s initiative, Ayenda. The Council alternates regular meetings between Kabul and Washington, DC to discuss programs and priorities for assisting Afghan women and to review progress. Under Secretary of State for Democracy and Global Affairs Paula Dobriansky co-chairs the Council with the Afghan Foreign Minister and the Afghan Minister of Women’s Affairs.

The recent report acknowledges the Council’s work in education (Women’s Teacher Training Institute, American University in Kabul, Women’s Resource Centers), Media (PBS Afghanistan Unveiled), and other education and Health initiatives and programs.

Afghanistan’s future as a free, stable, and democratic government is still deeply in doubt, as Karzai’s weakness and international donor weariness signify, but progress has been made that cannot be ignored. In a nation, where women were not even allowed to go near a school and a place where very few children were also given a decent education, progress has been made. In another position, I have done extensive terrorism research in Afghanistan and constantly reported on attacks on educational and women’s targets in the nation since the Taliban were ousted in 2001. These attacks only strengthen my resolve that these programs like the Women’s Council are vitally important to not only each individual Afghan child and women, but to the nation’s future as a whole.