Central Asia

Here in the United States, the world’s largest and in many ways most dynamic economy, everyday we open the morning papers lately just to see one more sign that our economy is in trouble; credit crisis, stimulus packages, unemployment, gas/oil prices, food prices, a movie in New York City costs $12.00! America is not alone as the nations of Central Asia face an even more dire situation. Even though some of their governments are reaping the rewards of ever-climbing energy prices, all are suffering from a weak world economy, less foreign investment in areas beyond energy, a harsh winter, and rising inflation, especially in regards to food. Here are two stories that showcase the difficult times for the region’s citizens.

A. Locust Invasion- Moroccan locusts have flown into the region from Afghanistan all the way to Kazakhstan and are making an already tenuous food situation much worse. Locusts affect crops in the region every year, but this year is worse than usual and when combined with a harsh winter that took a toll on farm and livestock productive and already high food prices, the region’s poor will most likely suffer even more. This insect invasion also portrays a region largely without the resources to combat such an occurrence, as most of the CA states cannot afford pesticides which could curb some of the locusts damage.

Infestation Statistics (estimated)

Tajikistan - 220,000 hectares of farmland

Kyrgyzstan - 50,000 hectares

Kazakhstan - 200,000 hectares

Uzbekistan - no reported damage

Afghanistan/Iran - damage, but level unknown

B. Education=No Job?!

Farangis Najibullah reports for Radio Free Europe on the region’s failure to provide adequate employment/careers for its college graduates.  The story starts with the story of Mirodil, an Uzbek who graduated from high school and immediately became a migrant worker in Kazakhstan because of the lack of opportunity in his home province Andijon.  Najibullah reports that though many CA states have built or opened universities recently, the number of high school graduates enrolling in them has dropped every year.  For instance, in Uzbek’s Samargand Province, only 12% of their high school grads applied to university.  The main impediment for this is the fact that many college graduates in the region fail to find professional employment in their respected fields and a sufficient salary to go along with it.  Therefore, citizens are choosing not to pay the exam fees (corrupt bribes) and spend years in the classroom, and instead are finding construction, farming, and market jobs in comparatively wealthy Russia or Kazakhstan.  It is easier said than done, but these states need to find jobs for these educated citizens.

Good morning friends, today I would just like to give an update on upcoming or recently passed regional conferences and cooperation in the CA.

1. The 6th Annual Almaty Conference “Central Asia: State and Prospects of Regional Cooperation” will be hosted in surprise, Almaty, Kazakhstan on June 11. The conference is organized by the Ebert Fund and First Kazakh President’s Fund and will be attended by both regional experts from many analytical centers in Kazakhstan, other CA states, Europe, Russia, and China and diplomatic mission representatives from many of these states. All that was stated was that a ‘wide range of issues’ about the ’state and prospects’ of CA regional cooperation planned to be discussed.

2. Currently, Almaty is also hosting a subregional seminar on environmental impact assessment for CA and Azerbaijan from June 3-5. Representatives of environmental protection departments, international and social organizations, mass media will participate in the event. The CA region has many pressing environmental concerns at the moment from hydroelectric power supply to locust invasions.

3. Tashkent, Uzbekistan hosted an international conference on “Security and stability in Central Asia in the Context of Political and Economic Modernization” from May 29-30. The government of Uzbekistan along with many European organizations hosted and put on the event which focused on stability, security, and socioeconomic issues in Afghanistan and the region as a whole. Uzbek President Karimov appeared to be the star of the show and discussed his plan’s on making Afghanistan a more stable and functioning state.

4. Lastly, Tajik President Rahmon and Kazak Head of State Nazarbayev, during a recent diplomatic visit, voiced their approval (with Kyrgyzstan also backing) of forming a Central Asian Union. We have discussed this possibility before and the fact that it faces many hurdles, especially Uzbekistan’s outright refusal and a wary Russia as well. Still, Kazakhstan desires more influence in this region to match its growing economic power and leading a CA regional cooperation grouping would certainly help it achieve this goal.

No matter how advanced our human civilization becomes, creating and then depending on such things as the Internet and cell phones, life for all humans still comes down to one thing, WATER. Central Asia’s historically harsh winter this past year has put tremendous strains on all parts of life in the region, from households to each state’s own presidential palace have felt its effects. Water is vital to each nation and person because it is the main provider for not only the agricultural industry, but also of electricity.

This recent story personifies the extent of CA’s water problems: Due to the unusually cold winter and the increased use of electricity, largely powered by hydroelectric sources, the government of Tajikistan is ‘requesting’ that all the residents of the nation, one of poorest in the region, give up half of their salaries in May and June to help fund the Rogun dam. This effort would still only put $10 million into a project that is estimated to cost at least $550 million.

The CA region has been a disorganized and its nation’s have failed to unite to solve this region-wide problem ever since the USSR broke down and each of these states came into existence. Joanna Lillis clearly describes the ramifications of the recent difficult winter and how it has caused a new emphasis in the region on getting their water, irrigation system right. She discusses how each CA nation is really only looking out for themselves and how this is causing all to suffer, especially the poorest in each country.

As was discussed earlier on this page, the presidents of Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan made efforts to create a Central Asian Union, which would include a water and energy consortium, a couple weeks ago, but Uzbekistan’s President Karimov quickly put a stop to this idea in his recent visit to Astana; “I want to state right away that this initiative is unacceptable for Uzbekistan.” Uzbekistan, the region’s largest consumer of water, seems to be playing regional power politics with Kazakhstan’s attempt at leading a regional forum, but this does not help in anyway the vital water issues of the region.

Moves have been made however to start to alleviate some of these issues; Kazakhstan will very soon begin its Koksaray reservoir, which will help it contain some of the flooding from water being released from its neighbors, and Kazakhstan’s government and large company Kazkuat, may help pay for Kyrgyzstan’s Kambarta project, which includes two power plants that would cost $2 billion

Kazakhstan is showing their increasing power and political sway in the region by trying to sure up its water and energy needs. These moves are to secure the country the energy and water it needs to help fuel its rising economy, but they should have positive effects throughout the region.

What would truly help solve these water issues would be a regional consortium, for many waterways traverse through all CA nations and what one does affects all others. Lillis advocates using the Eurasian Economic Community as a forum for cooperation, though it does not have Turkmenistan as a member. She discusses a blueprint that is already in place by the EAEC which proposes finding a suitable fuel and energy balance for all countries, attracts financing for Kyrg’s Kambarata project, restoring Soviet principles of irrigation for downstream states (Kazak, Uzbek, Turkmenistan), joint investment in power plants (very important), removing barriers to electricity companies and the creating of a common market between all member states.

This issue is not going away and short-term bilateral deals are only just band-aids on a cracking dam. This is a regional problem and needs a regional solution, but this is easier said than done of course. For instance, US states are still fighting over water as Colorado, Arizona, and California all desperately need the Colorado River’s vital flows. The EU and Germany have stepped up and tried to assist CA authorities on this issue and the US has also done some work, mainly regarding aid, but more needs to be done. If the US could help the region organize (difficult task) or help certain states fund their much needed hydroelectric dams (possible) much good will and the alleviation of suffering should follow.

Happy Friday! 4 Quick Items about subjects we have touched on recently:

1. Joshua Foust at Registan.net brings greater depth to this blog’s analysis of Central Asia’s water problems which appeared yesterday. Along with discussing Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan’s recent water troubles, Foust reports on a recent raid by Tajikistan citizens into Kyrgyzstan in order to destroy a dam that was blocking an irrigation canal into a nearby Tajik village. Make sure to check out some of his links, especially this one which lists the Top 3 possible water conflicts in the region.

2. Ariel Cohen, a security and Shanghai Cooperation Organization expert at the Heritage Foundation, gives his take on Iran’s recent official request to join the SCO. He correctly argues that China and Russia want to avoid creating an SCO that is explicitly anti-US/Western, and therefore, predicts Iran will have a difficult time gaining full membership in the current international political environment. However, Cohen cautions that recent US moves, support for Kosovo’s independence, pushing for Ukraine and Georgia’s admission into NATO, and the Eastern Europe Missile Shield placements, have caused Russian/US relations to deteriorate and may have Moscow looking for venues to strike back against US interests. Cohen also asserts that China and Russia might listen more intently to Iran’s SCO request to head off US encroachment in the Central Asian region.

3. Here is a mainstream Chinese perspective on their ‘Go West’ Policy. The report regards the government’s policy as a success in developing the economy and infrastructure of Xinjiang Province, and many other provinces, in China’s western region and how this has led to burgeoning trade with several Central Asian border-states. The story uses the UN’s Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) annual survey as evidence to back up its claims and makes no mention as to the social and cultural costs that have been inflicted on western China’s longtime inhabitants.

4. Marco Vicenzino, here at FPA, wrote a can’t miss analysis of the on-going NATO Summit, critiquing its members for not giving the mission in Afghanistan the ‘appropriate attention or critical debate it deserves.’

The Journal of Turkish Weekly recently wrote an interesting piece concerning Central Asia’s growing water issues, which I briefly touched on about a week ago when I reported on EU Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana’s speech concerning climate change.  The Journal’s outlook focus’s on Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan’s ‘uneasy’ water and energy relationship, mainly pertaining to the Syr Darya river basin, which overflows and threatens populated areas in Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan’s Toktogul hydroelectric power station, which has failed to provide enough electricity during a harshly cold winter.

Kazakhstan’s government has decided to build a reservoir on the river of Syr Daya near Koksaray village, hoping this will create a more efficient irrigation system and slow down the flooding.  The reservoir project is supposed to begin this year and cost over half a billion US dollars.  The Journal accurately warns that a similar project in Uzbekistan resulted in the loss of thousands of hectares of farm and meadowlands, leading to agricultural losses in the hundreds of millions.

The Journal advocates for an intergovernmental water and energy consortium between the CA states, where they can work on water issues that transcend their borders.  The good news is that Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan have a meeting in this regard set for this April.  I will do my best to keep you updated on its accomplishments or lack thereof.

In my short time as the lead writer for this blog, I have written much about NATO’s mission in Afghanistan, as I believe the nation’s stability and effective governance would do much for Central Asia, South Asia, and the Middle East regions.  On March 10th I discussed NATO troop levels and restrictions.  In light of the ongoing NATO Bucharest Summit, Foreign Policy has created The List: Who’s Left in Afghanistan?, which nicely catalogs individual NATO nation troop levels, restrictions of engagement, and provides an outlook into possible changes to these in the near future.  The report is rather disparaging to the nation’s who either have very low troop levels or major limitations as to what and where their troops can do and go.  The report specifically targets Germany, Austria, and Ireland for consternation.

For the first time in seven years, Ankara will host a Turkmen head of state, as President Berdymukhamedov visits the nation this March 24, 25. This diplomatic meeting quickly follows Turkey’s President Gul’s own visit to Ashgabat last December, as Turkey seems to be making an assertive effort to improve its relations with many Central Asian states, many of which hold populations with large Turk minorities. Turkmenistan’s Berdymukhamedov-led government is also showing a greater diplomatic effort to spread its interests beyond Russia, as Turkey opens the door to greater relations with the US and EU.

Economic and energy issues are expected to be the two main areas discussed at this conference. During Gul’s December visit, the two nations’ agreed to establish a joint economic cooperation council and last July Turkey signed a preliminary deal with Iran to carry natural gas from Iran and Turkmenistan to Europe. The Nabucco 3,300-kilometer gas pipeline which would send Turkmen, Middle Eastern, and Central Asian gas to the EU via Turkey, was also said be on the agenda. The US and EU strongly desire such a pipeline as it avoids Russia’s Gazprom’s reach, but Russia’s latest deal with Turkmenistan, which greatly raised Russia’s purchasing price for Central Asian gas, puts Nabucco in jeopardy. Whatever precise details or deals come from this meeting, it can be assumed that Turkey and Turkmenistan have created a closer relationship, which may yet bear fruit.

In a new article discussing Uzbekistan’s growing ‘thaw’ with the US and EU, Joana Lillis reports that Uzbek authorities have made a showing of promoting greater human rights in their state to try to relieve some of the sanctions and isolation brought to the state since the 2005 Andijan incident. The Uzbek government announced on March 13 that the International Committee of the Red Cross, which had been banned from performing its mission in the country for the past three years, would be allowed to investigate the nation’s prison/detainee system, which the US State Department just called ‘deplorable.’ Lillis warns that this and other recent Uzbek human rights promotion efforts may just be cosmetic and that sanctions brought against the country should not be taken away lightly.

EU Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana, at a recent European Commission summit, warned that ‘the severe impact of climate change in Central Asia is causing water and food shortages that could lead to regional conflicts’ in the near future.

On a , here is a fascinating journal of an American who traveled to Beijing to watch the first MLB spring training game in China, the Dodgers vs. the Padres.

With a title like this, I had to write in: they finally filmed a mammal in the Gobi desert that, okay, my fellow tree-huggers, is a really cute cross between a mouse and a rabbit: a long-eared jerboa.  BBC has pictures, a story, and a video.  It is also an endangered species.  We should look for new arguments about economic development versus habitat any day now.  And also we should be mindful of the money that comes into communities when people try to save endangered species as well.

Last aesthetic note: this would make one heck of an anime character.  Check it out!

UN Secretary-General Ban-Ki Moon has designated 2008 as the Year of Water Sanitation, a worthy effort which dovetails into public health and climate change issues–and which Central Asian states could use to their benefit.

According to the UN, investing $10 billion a year could halve the proportion of people without basic toilet facilities by 2015.  This grimy state of affairs affects 2.6 billion people worldwide, and not just aesthetically.

Public Health vs. Polio:
In Pakistan and Afghanistan, polio, spread by fecal-oral contact, continues to be a public health problem.  Afghanistan has had an immunization program over the past year at enormous effort; Pakistan needs one desperately.  Dr. Chan at the UN’s World Health Organization has stated that the last pockets of polio incidence are also the most expensive and difficult to reach–Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and Nigeria.  Cultural differences, difficulty in understanding the vaccine regime, and security and transportation problems  frequently hinder efforts.  Hardline preachers in the Pakistani tribal areas have forbidden health workers to immunize children, as late as August of this year.

Rotary International, a long-run enemy to polio virus, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, are jump-starting the continued effort with a grant to WHO of USD 2 million.

“An estimated 42,000 people die every week from diseases related to low water quality and an absence of adequate sanitation,” U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said in a statement announcing 2008 as the Year of Sanitation.   Water-borne diseases such as botulism, cholera, and typhoid mostly affect children.

Climate change:
Add to the fact that climate change hits poor countries the hardest–and water quality in poor countries is the worst.  What this means is that water sources themselves become exploited in a heightened fashion, because water itself is not taken care of downriver.  The effects of climate change in Central Asia’s aquifers and in Xinjiang make it more important than ever to safeguard and safely treat/sanitize the water that is available.  It’s a great program for 2008.  I hope Central Asia officials are busy writing their grants for water sanitation projects–Today–at the very latest., for their major rivers and their dead lakes, their sewage infrastructure, and whatever else that they can think of that will bring water quality up for human use–and for human industry–and human health.

Further Reading: Wikipedia on Poliomyelitus, a disease spread by poor sanitation

Photo: BBC

International Community News:
Since The World Bank (the affectionate name for the United Nations’ International Bank for Reconstruction & Development or IBRD)  is having their annual meetings this month, there’s a lot of development news out there.  Central Asian governments who want to access the Bank’s programs need to know what priorities the Bank is currently working with in order to tailor their requests . . .  especially since the international aid environment is very tight right now.  Partly that low dollar-supply for aid is related to rising energy costs, which make food cultivation and distribution much more expensive for poor and developing states–and for the aid agencies that assist them.  

Agriculture
First, the IBRD is citing a new emphasis on small agriculture world-wide.  Though the report mostly covers Africa, it could be good news for farmers in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. 

Poverty Reduction, Development
Second, the President of the World Bank Mr. Zoellick will also be visiting China on behalf of poverty-reduction efforts later on this year. 

Third, Mr. Zoellick is also on record as saying that the private sector can take point on many development projects with the IDA and IFC arms of World Bank activities.

Environmental & Energy Issues
Fourth, in time for the Environment for Europe Conference (October 10-12, 2007), two key World Bank reports are out on Central Asia.  “Integrating Environment in Key Economic Sectors in Europe and Central Asia”, and “Integrating Environment into Agriculture and Forestry: Progress and Prospects in Eastern Europe and Central Asia” .  The Conference was held in Belgrade.  Here are some of the findings of the reports:

Failure to integrate environment into agriculture and forestry will have major economic and human health implications. For example, soil salinity in Uzbekistan is estimated to cost that country over €700 million per year, nutrient contamination of the Baltic Sea primarily from agriculture and forestry is estimated to have caused up to €4.5 billion in damages.

These two reports are available at this portal page.

Fifth, the IBRD will be increasing its funding for energy provision, particularly technologies under its Clean Energy Investment Initiative.  The Bank hopes to fund this with USD 10 billion over the next three years–as opposed to the USD 7 billion of the preceding funding period.  

The Asian Development Bank is also earmarking USD 1 billion for China and India for its Clean Energy and Environment Programme. 

Just an update. . . Have a great day, everybody!

. . . . is water, although one wouldn’t think so by the amount of ink and electrons we spend on hydrocarbon disposition.

First, you have to have water to drink, wash, and grow crops; potable water is also required for reliable manufacture of pharmaceutical, cleaning, and other chemical products.  Agriculture employs most of the people in Central Asia and represents in all states a significant part of GDP.  In a region that is aird desert with some rivers, water regimes have always been paramount.  Yet, since 1991, the history of Central Asian water regimes has reinforced the waste of water and unfair dealings by downstream states, who gain the water, and yet rely upon the upstream states to build the infrastructure. 

Trouble in River City
Now that upstream states have investors for upstream projects, who want return for investment, there’s going to be trouble in Central Asia’s riverine regimes.  For one thing, over time and right now, there will be less water available for all functions for which it seems useful.  And as upstream states develop self-help, downstream states cannot rely on state dysfuntion to gain them unpaid benefits.

According to Itar-Tass on August 28, Tajikistan’s president Rakhmon has informed his citizens to prepare for a cold winter, because water levels have decreased this year and the energy hydropower is not forthcoming.  You can bet that if water does increase in output, Tajikistan will be diverting quite a bit of it for power generation in order to increase its ability to develop a viable economy.  Of course, then it does go downstream to Uzbekistan like before, but once all this hydropower investment is made, the water courses are more manageable and can be controlled from upstream. 

In the absence of upstream water management, Uzbekistan sometimes had to contend with flooding, but in general the state did not have to take care of its relationship to Tajikistan in order to get water downstream.  Now Mr. Karimov is going to have to make nice:  well, it’s never too late to learn how, is it?

Specifically, Uzbekistan’s greater power in the we-provide-utilities-and-you-provide-water arrangement is going to change:  in the past, Mr. Karimov could turn the valves on a pipeline any time he wanted to protest a neighbor states’ behavior or policy.  For instance, after the Andijan Massacre in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan held tight to international law and refused to expel Andijan refugees from their country.  Mr. Karimov took immediate revenge on Kygyzstan’s poor by cutting off lack fuel from Uzbekistan that winter. 

Now, the Kyrgyz republic pays for part of the energy it gets from Uzbekistan and barters water for the rest.   But as Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan become energy independent, Mr. Karimov’s leverage dwindles.  Furthermore, as Tajikistan (and maybe even Kyrgyzstan) begins to export energy and manage water, the power not only equalizes but tips in the other direction.

If you don’t give, you don’t get:
Therefore, Mr. Karimov’s rather sulky statements during the SCO Summit about water control has some people speculating over future water spats, which could also include military actions (they certainly have done so in the past).  Mr. Karimov, according to Jamiyat at neweurasia.net, told the assembled heads of state that “you have all forgotten the Aral Sea”.

This is not an accurate statement, considering that Kazakhstan has invested in trying to bring the North Aral back to health.  On the other hand, Uzbekistan may not have forgotten but has certainly ignored the plight of the Aral Sea.  It may not have forgotten but has certainly ignored the numerous experts who have tried to achieve sustainable water regimes in the area.  In general, Uzbekistan has been one of the spoilers of every sustainable program–not alone, mind you–but consistently. 

Uzbekistan’s power as the regional center
With all of the dam improvements and hydropower installations going in upstream, the balance of power between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan is also undergoing a sea change.  In the past, all water cooperation regimes in Central Asia were like the ICWC, (Interstate Commission on Water Conservation), that is headquartered in Uzbekistan. 

When all of the Aral Sea Basin states were cooperating, at least nominally, then Uzbekistan’s central location made this a reasonable idea.  However,  as seems perennial in Uzbekistani relations, this position of power rarely resulted in acknowledgement of other stakeholders, and (as already noted)  nearly never to upstream stakeholders.  Since Tajikistan has been forced to take this problem into its own hands, Uzbekistan’s hard-line stance has not paved the way for future cooperation–that is, if there is enough water to be had.

The legitimizing factors
When it comes to diverting water, upstream states do have some power, but it is heavily curtailed by international law.  The UN Right to Water notes, and many court cases, have ruled on this issue: along riverine watersheds, all states have a legal stake in the disposition of the water.  Generally, the advantage goes to downstream states because they are usually more greatly populated and have more industry and agriculture (think deltas instead of mountains).  But it will be a very new question when there is not enough water to support life upstream in the mountains as well as down in the flatlands.

Again, Mr. Karimov has not kept the legal high ground.  Not only has water management been lax, but energy needs and exchanges for water between Uzbekistan and upstream states have always been used by Uzbekistan to punish upstream water providers.  Since Uzbekistan regularly cuts of fuel supplies in the winter, whether for non-payment of bills by its less-rich neighbors, it can hardly claim a humanitarian outlook on resource-sharing. 

If Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan cannot depend upon energy supplies or water infrastructure cost-sharing from Uzbekistan or Turkmenistan, then they may well argue in international court that they are obliged to provide these commodities for themselves.  This strengthens all hydropower investment claims on their part and leaves Uzbekistan low and dry.

So, hey.  The shoe’s on the other foot.  Or, Mr. Karimov is waiting for the second shoe to drop.  Or, maybe, he is going to have to depend upon a mercy from those to whom he has not shown any.  Yeah, that last one: that’s the one.

But however just or fair this may sound, in the end it’s the people who suffer: all of them.  And these kind of disputes are just one harbinger of the new resource wars and disputes of the future: when in Central Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and the American West, there is not enough water in all the places that need it.  It’s water: it’s more important than any other resource on earth to sustain life and build economies.  It just doesn’t get as much ink or as many electrons. . . for now.