Central Asia

On Friday, we discussed Russian President Medvedev’s recent three nation visit to Central Asia, a visit that seemingly had one thing on its mind; gas and oil. A couple weeks ago, EU representatives made their second major stopover in a matter of months to Turkmenistan to discuss energy, specifically gas reserves for the Nabucco pipeline which would circumvent Russian territory and land space, and trade, basically getting Turkmenistan into the WTO. However, just by taking a glance at the EU’s first annual Progress Report of their 2007-2013 EU Strategy for Central Asia, one can see that the EU is interested in more than just oil/gas/trade. Human Rights issues dot the document and EU perspectives on their role in the region.

The Report stated 5 Goals for the EU-Central Asian Strategy:

1. Promotion of Human Rights and Democratization

2. Enhancement of Education

3. Increasing the Rule of Law

4. Promote Regional Integration in the areas of environment and water

5. Coordination on Border and Drug Trafficking Management

Here is an analysis of the EU-Central Asian Strategy of the its 1-year progress report by Eurasia Daily and a local one by Kazinform. The Eurasia Daily quotes the EU report’s analysis of its accomplishments, calling them ‘encouraging’ and that ‘after only one year, a new quality of cooperation has evolved between Central Asia and the EU.’ Concerning the sticky issue of human rights promotion, the report asserted that all 5 CA states were willing to commit to the human rights dialogue. The Eurasia Daily analysis of the report also acknowledges the Strategy’s critics, some who argue that the overly ideological (idealistic?) approach the group takes with the region’s authoritative states is excessive, and others who instead assert that the EU plays too much realpolitik in region, ignoring human rights and democracy issues in order to secure energy resources and strategic interests. Here are two voices who agree with latter assertion: Danish journalist and political scientist Michael Andersen and Cornelius Graubner at the Central Asian-Caucacus Institute.

Like all things in domestic and international politics, the truth is somewhere in the middle. There is no doubt in my mind that the EU’s belief and policy’s in regards to human rights and democracy promotion are genuine. Putting a liberal bent on geopolitical policies in a region without a history of such ideals is a challenging endeavor to say the least. Europe desires relief from one autocratic energy ruler, Russia, and to accomplish this they need to deal with other autocratic rulers. But unlike Russia and China, the EU blatantly advocates and concretely promotes human rights and democracy in the region to go along with its material interests. This can be exemplified by a recent visit to CA by the German Commissioner of Human Rights. The Commissioner was due to speak and listen to civil society and opposition groups in several nations. This small visit by a ‘Commissioner’ may not be as significant or visible as an oil/gas deal, such as Nabucco, but it has an affect, and hopefully this ripples and ripples throughout the region.

Here are some short snipets with some reading material to get you through the weekend without fresh, red-hot Central Asian news!

Continuing our discussion about CA’s blood transfusion and HIV/AIDS problem on June 19, here is a more personal and touching story of the consequences of the region’s poorly managed and constructed health care system. This should not happen, period.

And for those of you still thirsting for some knowledge about the region’s water woes here is a short, but rather thorough explanation of the region’s difficulties when it comes to this vital resource.

On June 9, the Head of the Regional Center for Preventive Diplomacy in Central Asia, Miroslav Jenca, assumed office and hosted a meeting in Ashgabat on June 23. The Center is meant to provide assistance to the governments of CA in building up their capacity to resolve disputes peacefully. Sounds like a worthy mission, good luck.

Here are two reviews of Sergei Bodrov’s new motion picture ‘Mongol’, the story of Ghenghis Khan; one positive, one negative. Both reviewers thought the film was visually pleasing, but only one thought the narrative worth listening to. It stated that ‘Mongol’ provides an ‘authentic-looking glimpse at the culture and customs, hardships and tribal rivalries of life in Central Asia 1,000 years ago. If I see the movie, I hope to, I will give you my expert film critique (warning I love ‘Spaceballs)

Lastly, I know you’ve been clamoring for more horse-riding for peace stories so here you go. Majid Charhesht, an Iranian sports fanatic, is crossing Central Asia on horseback all the way to Beijing for the Olympics. In 2004, he made his way to the Athens Olympics by way of roller skates! At least he’s doing it for a worthy cause, world peace.

Have a great weekend!

World Bank President and former US diplomat Robert B. Zoellick met with President Nazarbayev and the Kazak government this week to discuss several joint World Bank/Kazak projects. The two sides announced plans to jointly finance a $2.5 billion road project to help upgrade the trade routes between Asia, especially China, Russia, and all the way into Europe. This road project is part of a $7.5 billion deal to improve the 2,800 km road corridor from Kazakhstan’s border with China (Khorgos) to the border with Russia (Syrm). This project is set to start in 2009. Bob Zoellick had this to say:

“Following part of the ancient Silk Road that linked East and West, this project will establish a modern transport corridor through Kazakhstan. It will boost Kazakhstani trade, competitiveness, logistics, and infrastructure connections wit the world, while providing an artery for regional cooperation.”

There is great hope that this transportation project will find ways to incorporate all the nations of Central Asia, especially the impoverished states of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. In other words, the roads would have a trickle-down effect.

The road system in Central Asia has been an important aspect of the region’s infrastructure too long neglected and this brings attention to another key project that needs to garner not just attention, but action: the disappearing Aral Sea. The Aral Sea, once the 4th largest lake in the world, has shrunken by about 70 percent in the last 50 years largely due to mismanagement and overuse by the CA states, mainly Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. The rapid shrinking of this vital geographic regional centerpiece has had a multitude of negative effects; damaging fish production, causing high salinity, pollution, lack of fresh drinking water, and desertification that has led to violent sand storms. The World Bank has a $86 million dollar restoration project set to begin at the end of this year and a follow-up project to improve environmental and economic conditions in the Sea’s area, but there is great doubt that the Aral Sea will never regain its former size.

UN ambassadors from all 5 CA states have requested help from the international community regarding this issue and plan to introduce a draft resolution on the Sea at the 63rd Session of the next UN General Assembly. Kori Udovicki, head of UNDP’s European branch, argued that the situation ‘is probably one of the most acute…environmental crises in the world.’

Also regarding water issues/problems in the CA, officials from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan met in Bishkek from June 10-11 to discuss water sharing issues in the region. Radio Free Europe called the conference not only a ‘failure’, but that it may have actually raised tensions between the nations regarding the free flow of water throughout the region. In short, Tajik and Kyrg, when most of the water in the region flows from, desire to treat water like any other commodity, such as Uzbek, Kazak, and Turkmen’s oil and gas reserves, and receive some compensation. A difficult issue to say the least.

(Photo: Wikipedia)

Tajikistan, already one of the world’s poorest nations, has suffered much this year with a harsh winter, continuing health concerns, and with rising food prices.  But the worse could be yet to come as its President Rahmon’s rule appears to be showing some cracks and news reports about the country have titles such as ‘Who’s in Charge’ and ‘Tajikistan is not in control.’  Not that President Rahmon has gone out of his way to help his people or been at least an ‘organized’ autocrat, but the violent battle for power or overthrow of his rule could send the nation into greater chaos.

Two reports exemplify Rahmon’s weakening power; the strange disappearance of Khasan Sadulloyev, one of the nation’s most powerful business men and the President’s brother-in-law, and the government led attack on the Langariyevs’ household, who had fought ’side by side’ with Rahmon against the Islamic opposition during Tajik’s civil war in the 1990s. These instances seem to portray a government on its heels, trying to eliminate ‘enemies’ and possible power challengers.  Eurasianet.org calls the Sadulloyev incident a sign of presidential ‘dysfunction’ and a leader who does not have control over his own power circle.  The article references the fall of Kyrg’s President Askar Akayev in 2005 as a possible outcome for the Tajik leader.

In other, more positive Tajik news, Kazakhstan’s government has pledged to help build and finance Tajik’s much needed and sought after Rogun Dam project and Rahmon has stated that an ‘international consortium‘ would also help the impoverished nation get the dam operating within 4 1/2 years.  The dam would provide much needed electricity for the nation and the region as well.

Tajik’s Foreign Minister Khamrokhon Zarifi met with US Undersecretary of State for South and Central Asian George A. Krol on June 16 and discussed a ‘broad spectrum’ of issues concerning US-Tajik relations and agreed that the 4th meeting of the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) would ‘become another major step towards development of regional trade and economic cooperation.’  TIFA is between the US-CA states and promotes the expansion of trade and investments in the region through the involvement of customs procedures in international standards.  US soft power one might say.

Here in the United States, the world’s largest and in many ways most dynamic economy, everyday we open the morning papers lately just to see one more sign that our economy is in trouble; credit crisis, stimulus packages, unemployment, gas/oil prices, food prices, a movie in New York City costs $12.00! America is not alone as the nations of Central Asia face an even more dire situation. Even though some of their governments are reaping the rewards of ever-climbing energy prices, all are suffering from a weak world economy, less foreign investment in areas beyond energy, a harsh winter, and rising inflation, especially in regards to food. Here are two stories that showcase the difficult times for the region’s citizens.

A. Locust Invasion- Moroccan locusts have flown into the region from Afghanistan all the way to Kazakhstan and are making an already tenuous food situation much worse. Locusts affect crops in the region every year, but this year is worse than usual and when combined with a harsh winter that took a toll on farm and livestock productive and already high food prices, the region’s poor will most likely suffer even more. This insect invasion also portrays a region largely without the resources to combat such an occurrence, as most of the CA states cannot afford pesticides which could curb some of the locusts damage.

Infestation Statistics (estimated)

Tajikistan - 220,000 hectares of farmland

Kyrgyzstan - 50,000 hectares

Kazakhstan - 200,000 hectares

Uzbekistan - no reported damage

Afghanistan/Iran - damage, but level unknown

B. Education=No Job?!

Farangis Najibullah reports for Radio Free Europe on the region’s failure to provide adequate employment/careers for its college graduates.  The story starts with the story of Mirodil, an Uzbek who graduated from high school and immediately became a migrant worker in Kazakhstan because of the lack of opportunity in his home province Andijon.  Najibullah reports that though many CA states have built or opened universities recently, the number of high school graduates enrolling in them has dropped every year.  For instance, in Uzbek’s Samargand Province, only 12% of their high school grads applied to university.  The main impediment for this is the fact that many college graduates in the region fail to find professional employment in their respected fields and a sufficient salary to go along with it.  Therefore, citizens are choosing not to pay the exam fees (corrupt bribes) and spend years in the classroom, and instead are finding construction, farming, and market jobs in comparatively wealthy Russia or Kazakhstan.  It is easier said than done, but these states need to find jobs for these educated citizens.

Good morning friends, today I would just like to give an update on upcoming or recently passed regional conferences and cooperation in the CA.

1. The 6th Annual Almaty Conference “Central Asia: State and Prospects of Regional Cooperation” will be hosted in surprise, Almaty, Kazakhstan on June 11. The conference is organized by the Ebert Fund and First Kazakh President’s Fund and will be attended by both regional experts from many analytical centers in Kazakhstan, other CA states, Europe, Russia, and China and diplomatic mission representatives from many of these states. All that was stated was that a ‘wide range of issues’ about the ’state and prospects’ of CA regional cooperation planned to be discussed.

2. Currently, Almaty is also hosting a subregional seminar on environmental impact assessment for CA and Azerbaijan from June 3-5. Representatives of environmental protection departments, international and social organizations, mass media will participate in the event. The CA region has many pressing environmental concerns at the moment from hydroelectric power supply to locust invasions.

3. Tashkent, Uzbekistan hosted an international conference on “Security and stability in Central Asia in the Context of Political and Economic Modernization” from May 29-30. The government of Uzbekistan along with many European organizations hosted and put on the event which focused on stability, security, and socioeconomic issues in Afghanistan and the region as a whole. Uzbek President Karimov appeared to be the star of the show and discussed his plan’s on making Afghanistan a more stable and functioning state.

4. Lastly, Tajik President Rahmon and Kazak Head of State Nazarbayev, during a recent diplomatic visit, voiced their approval (with Kyrgyzstan also backing) of forming a Central Asian Union. We have discussed this possibility before and the fact that it faces many hurdles, especially Uzbekistan’s outright refusal and a wary Russia as well. Still, Kazakhstan desires more influence in this region to match its growing economic power and leading a CA regional cooperation grouping would certainly help it achieve this goal.

No matter how advanced our human civilization becomes, creating and then depending on such things as the Internet and cell phones, life for all humans still comes down to one thing, WATER. Central Asia’s historically harsh winter this past year has put tremendous strains on all parts of life in the region, from households to each state’s own presidential palace have felt its effects. Water is vital to each nation and person because it is the main provider for not only the agricultural industry, but also of electricity.

This recent story personifies the extent of CA’s water problems: Due to the unusually cold winter and the increased use of electricity, largely powered by hydroelectric sources, the government of Tajikistan is ‘requesting’ that all the residents of the nation, one of poorest in the region, give up half of their salaries in May and June to help fund the Rogun dam. This effort would still only put $10 million into a project that is estimated to cost at least $550 million.

The CA region has been a disorganized and its nation’s have failed to unite to solve this region-wide problem ever since the USSR broke down and each of these states came into existence. Joanna Lillis clearly describes the ramifications of the recent difficult winter and how it has caused a new emphasis in the region on getting their water, irrigation system right. She discusses how each CA nation is really only looking out for themselves and how this is causing all to suffer, especially the poorest in each country.

As was discussed earlier on this page, the presidents of Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan made efforts to create a Central Asian Union, which would include a water and energy consortium, a couple weeks ago, but Uzbekistan’s President Karimov quickly put a stop to this idea in his recent visit to Astana; “I want to state right away that this initiative is unacceptable for Uzbekistan.” Uzbekistan, the region’s largest consumer of water, seems to be playing regional power politics with Kazakhstan’s attempt at leading a regional forum, but this does not help in anyway the vital water issues of the region.

Moves have been made however to start to alleviate some of these issues; Kazakhstan will very soon begin its Koksaray reservoir, which will help it contain some of the flooding from water being released from its neighbors, and Kazakhstan’s government and large company Kazkuat, may help pay for Kyrgyzstan’s Kambarta project, which includes two power plants that would cost $2 billion

Kazakhstan is showing their increasing power and political sway in the region by trying to sure up its water and energy needs. These moves are to secure the country the energy and water it needs to help fuel its rising economy, but they should have positive effects throughout the region.

What would truly help solve these water issues would be a regional consortium, for many waterways traverse through all CA nations and what one does affects all others. Lillis advocates using the Eurasian Economic Community as a forum for cooperation, though it does not have Turkmenistan as a member. She discusses a blueprint that is already in place by the EAEC which proposes finding a suitable fuel and energy balance for all countries, attracts financing for Kyrg’s Kambarata project, restoring Soviet principles of irrigation for downstream states (Kazak, Uzbek, Turkmenistan), joint investment in power plants (very important), removing barriers to electricity companies and the creating of a common market between all member states.

This issue is not going away and short-term bilateral deals are only just band-aids on a cracking dam. This is a regional problem and needs a regional solution, but this is easier said than done of course. For instance, US states are still fighting over water as Colorado, Arizona, and California all desperately need the Colorado River’s vital flows. The EU and Germany have stepped up and tried to assist CA authorities on this issue and the US has also done some work, mainly regarding aid, but more needs to be done. If the US could help the region organize (difficult task) or help certain states fund their much needed hydroelectric dams (possible) much good will and the alleviation of suffering should follow.

Happy Friday! 4 Quick Items about subjects we have touched on recently:

1. Joshua Foust at Registan.net brings greater depth to this blog’s analysis of Central Asia’s water problems which appeared yesterday. Along with discussing Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan’s recent water troubles, Foust reports on a recent raid by Tajikistan citizens into Kyrgyzstan in order to destroy a dam that was blocking an irrigation canal into a nearby Tajik village. Make sure to check out some of his links, especially this one which lists the Top 3 possible water conflicts in the region.

2. Ariel Cohen, a security and Shanghai Cooperation Organization expert at the Heritage Foundation, gives his take on Iran’s recent official request to join the SCO. He correctly argues that China and Russia want to avoid creating an SCO that is explicitly anti-US/Western, and therefore, predicts Iran will have a difficult time gaining full membership in the current international political environment. However, Cohen cautions that recent US moves, support for Kosovo’s independence, pushing for Ukraine and Georgia’s admission into NATO, and the Eastern Europe Missile Shield placements, have caused Russian/US relations to deteriorate and may have Moscow looking for venues to strike back against US interests. Cohen also asserts that China and Russia might listen more intently to Iran’s SCO request to head off US encroachment in the Central Asian region.

3. Here is a mainstream Chinese perspective on their ‘Go West’ Policy. The report regards the government’s policy as a success in developing the economy and infrastructure of Xinjiang Province, and many other provinces, in China’s western region and how this has led to burgeoning trade with several Central Asian border-states. The story uses the UN’s Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) annual survey as evidence to back up its claims and makes no mention as to the social and cultural costs that have been inflicted on western China’s longtime inhabitants.

4. Marco Vicenzino, here at FPA, wrote a can’t miss analysis of the on-going NATO Summit, critiquing its members for not giving the mission in Afghanistan the ‘appropriate attention or critical debate it deserves.’

The Journal of Turkish Weekly recently wrote an interesting piece concerning Central Asia’s growing water issues, which I briefly touched on about a week ago when I reported on EU Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana’s speech concerning climate change.  The Journal’s outlook focus’s on Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan’s ‘uneasy’ water and energy relationship, mainly pertaining to the Syr Darya river basin, which overflows and threatens populated areas in Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan’s Toktogul hydroelectric power station, which has failed to provide enough electricity during a harshly cold winter.

Kazakhstan’s government has decided to build a reservoir on the river of Syr Daya near Koksaray village, hoping this will create a more efficient irrigation system and slow down the flooding.  The reservoir project is supposed to begin this year and cost over half a billion US dollars.  The Journal accurately warns that a similar project in Uzbekistan resulted in the loss of thousands of hectares of farm and meadowlands, leading to agricultural losses in the hundreds of millions.

The Journal advocates for an intergovernmental water and energy consortium between the CA states, where they can work on water issues that transcend their borders.  The good news is that Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan have a meeting in this regard set for this April.  I will do my best to keep you updated on its accomplishments or lack thereof.

In my short time as the lead writer for this blog, I have written much about NATO’s mission in Afghanistan, as I believe the nation’s stability and effective governance would do much for Central Asia, South Asia, and the Middle East regions.  On March 10th I discussed NATO troop levels and restrictions.  In light of the ongoing NATO Bucharest Summit, Foreign Policy has created The List: Who’s Left in Afghanistan?, which nicely catalogs individual NATO nation troop levels, restrictions of engagement, and provides an outlook into possible changes to these in the near future.  The report is rather disparaging to the nation’s who either have very low troop levels or major limitations as to what and where their troops can do and go.  The report specifically targets Germany, Austria, and Ireland for consternation.

For the first time in seven years, Ankara will host a Turkmen head of state, as President Berdymukhamedov visits the nation this March 24, 25. This diplomatic meeting quickly follows Turkey’s President Gul’s own visit to Ashgabat last December, as Turkey seems to be making an assertive effort to improve its relations with many Central Asian states, many of which hold populations with large Turk minorities. Turkmenistan’s Berdymukhamedov-led government is also showing a greater diplomatic effort to spread its interests beyond Russia, as Turkey opens the door to greater relations with the US and EU.

Economic and energy issues are expected to be the two main areas discussed at this conference. During Gul’s December visit, the two nations’ agreed to establish a joint economic cooperation council and last July Turkey signed a preliminary deal with Iran to carry natural gas from Iran and Turkmenistan to Europe. The Nabucco 3,300-kilometer gas pipeline which would send Turkmen, Middle Eastern, and Central Asian gas to the EU via Turkey, was also said be on the agenda. The US and EU strongly desire such a pipeline as it avoids Russia’s Gazprom’s reach, but Russia’s latest deal with Turkmenistan, which greatly raised Russia’s purchasing price for Central Asian gas, puts Nabucco in jeopardy. Whatever precise details or deals come from this meeting, it can be assumed that Turkey and Turkmenistan have created a closer relationship, which may yet bear fruit.

In a new article discussing Uzbekistan’s growing ‘thaw’ with the US and EU, Joana Lillis reports that Uzbek authorities have made a showing of promoting greater human rights in their state to try to relieve some of the sanctions and isolation brought to the state since the 2005 Andijan incident. The Uzbek government announced on March 13 that the International Committee of the Red Cross, which had been banned from performing its mission in the country for the past three years, would be allowed to investigate the nation’s prison/detainee system, which the US State Department just called ‘deplorable.’ Lillis warns that this and other recent Uzbek human rights promotion efforts may just be cosmetic and that sanctions brought against the country should not be taken away lightly.

EU Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana, at a recent European Commission summit, warned that ‘the severe impact of climate change in Central Asia is causing water and food shortages that could lead to regional conflicts’ in the near future.

On a , here is a fascinating journal of an American who traveled to Beijing to watch the first MLB spring training game in China, the Dodgers vs. the Padres.