Central Asia

Let’s join the club!

Unfortunately, a definitive majority of news I report on and discuss on this blog is of the negative kind. It does them a true adage that good news is not really news people tend to be drawn to. I looked at many of the reports, articles, and other blog topic ideas I have gathered recently and about 50% were negative toned and most of the others were strictly analytical, with only a few being positive. There is good news in Central Asia, right?

Yes, there is. But like most things in life it comes with caveats and concerns. The latest IMF Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia sees a ‘Bright‘ outlook. The report cites commodity prices remaining high, surging investments, and strong productivity gains as it predicts sustained growth above 6% in the region. The Outlook states that all the countries included, except Kazakhstan, were largely unscathed by the recent financial downturn enveloping the developed world. It is true that much of the growth has to do with tremendous rise in energy prices and the fact that many of the world’s major energy suppliers are from these two regions, but the Outlook does an effective job of organizing the region’s nations into three categories, oil exporters, low-income countries, and emerging markets, and offering separate analysis’s of their unique situation.

Even with positive signs of economic growth the region has many structural problems and poverty is blatant throughout CA, but this is overall good news. The region, like the rest of the world, is indeed going through tough economic times, and in some cases things appear to be getting worse, not better. But growth is positive, and hopefully this continues and signifies a brighter future for the region.

For all you lucky readers I have a present…Press Conference reports from US State Department officials about ongoing relations with Central Asia! Calm down please.

Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary, Pamela Spratlen (Photo, left) recently made diplomatic visits to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan and in each destination held a press conference.

In Bishkek, she participated in what was called the second Comprehensive Policy Dialogue with Foreign Minister Ednan Karabayev and introduced the Millennium Challenge Corporation Threshold program. Kyrgyzstan, which is the first country in CA to be selected to participate, will receive $16 million dollars to help them reform their judicial, law enforcement, and criminal justice sectors. Spratlen also voiced her disapproval of the Kyrg government’s recent handling of the December 2007 elections, which it still has failed to release the results of, during the press conference. Spratlen also answered questions regarding recent local protests against the US use of the Manas base in the country.

In Dushanbe, Spratlen discussed her meetings with Tajik government officials, civil society, NGOs, and members of the business community and stressed that the questions that were of ’special interest’ to her were regarding development of democratic institutions and civil society, and about economic recovery and growth, specifically concerning the effects of the recently passed harsh winter. A discussion of the security situation in Afghanistan along with questions pertaining to the US use of Uzbekistan’s Termez airbase (she reiterated that ‘it’s not our airbase. It won’t be our airbase.’ Just that ‘our citizens can use it.’) were highlights of the press conference. Lastly, a reporter from the BBC asked her about the recent controversy over Tajik government’s falsification of its finances to the IMF. She answered that the US and the international community were ‘very concerned’ and had ‘lost some of its confidence’ that the Tajik government fully understood all of its responsibilities to the IMF and the needs of its people.

Just over a week ago, Richard Boucher, Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asia (Spratlen’s boss), held a press briefing titled ‘The Year Ahead in South and Central Asia.’ I have actually not had time to read it all the way over so I will hold my comments until next week, but here is a short review of his statements (to no one’s surprise it appears that Afghanistan was a major topic of discussion, but also Indian energy relations in the CA too).

Have a great weekend!

(Photo Source: US State Department Website)

New York City’s Winkleman Gallery is currently exhibiting seven media projects called “I Dream of the Stans: New Central Asian Video.” One of the exhibitions curators, Leeza Ahmady, stated that their aim was to ‘assemble a representative collection that highlighted the adventurous spirit of regional artists.’ The exhibition features such CA artists as Said Atabekov, Rustam Khalfin, Julia Tikhonova, and Almagul Menlibayeva. Freelance journalist Deirdre Tynan wrote a critique and informative description for Eurasia.net. Parts of the exhibitions videos and stills can be seen on the Winkleman Gallery’s website here.  In case anyone is near by, the exhibition we continue until April 26.

In yet another sign that Turkmenistan is coming out of its isolationist shell, Ashgabat just finished hosting a meeting between the European Union’s Troika and Central Asia’s foreign ministers. The Troika is headed by Slovenian Foreign Minister Dimitrij Rupel, EU External Relations Commissioner Ferrero-Waldner, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, and the EU’s special representative for Central Asia, Pierre Morel. The main premise for the meeting focused on the implementation of EU’s new strategy for Central Asia that includes increasing cooperation between the two regions regarding education, legal norms, economy, trade, energy, drug trafficking, border management, water issues and the environment.

In an interview, EU External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner addressed the diverse agenda of the Troika’s meetings with the CA foreign ministers. She stated that cooperation and relations were ‘growing rapidly’ and discussed ways in which the EU could help the region develop, for instance she emphasized the EU-Central Asia Invest project and how the EU had allocated 314 million euros for regional and bilateral cooperation in the region, along with issues of mutual concern, such as security and energy supplies. Concerning energy, Ferrero-Waldner stated that the diversification of supply and export routes was an important part of the meeting’s agenda.

Andrea Schmitz, a scholar at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin, while acknowledging that the development of an EU-CA energy partnership makes a lot of sense for each side, basically so they each could circumvent Russian influence, accurately argues that this is easier said then done. As of right now, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have nearly all their energy export routes through Russian territory with sizable contracts backing them up. Proposals for alternative gas supple routes have been kicked around for years, yet all pipelines to European markets still flow through Russian territory. Schmitz laments that ‘as long as the EU doesn’t have a common energy policy itself, we won’t have a chance to compete with Russia.’

The EU also faces another hurdle in its energy and strategic dealings with its Central Asian counterparts; its policy of promoting democracy and human rights. Energy, water issues, business dealings were on the table for this meeting and others between the groups, but so were human rights and more open and accountable governmental practices. As Ferrero-Waldner states ‘there will also be the question of human rights, because as you know, human rights are indeed a very important part of our external relations.’ In the aforementioned interview, Ferrero-Waldner responded to several human rights inquiries, specifically regarding Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, and was cautious in her answers, stating that democratization, rule of law, and the development of human rights will ‘take a certain time.’ Concerning Uzbekistan specifically, she stated ‘engagement’ as the best way for the EU to encourage positive developments in furthering these issues.

Unlike CA state dealings with Russia or China, the EU and the United States are held to higher liberal and democratic standards, and even though it can hurt their interests, they bring these ideals to the negotiating table. There is great domestic pressure on US and EU diplomats to push for more open and accountable CA state governments and societies, for example Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch each called on the EU to emphasize human rights progress during this latest summit. The EU and US must perform a complicated dance to further their own strategic and financial interests in CA and at the same time attempt to promote liberal, democratic ideals of governance and society.

In other news, the Chinese government announced yesterday the arrest of 35 people, suspected to be plotting a terrorist attack at the upcoming Beijing Olympics, in Urumqi, the capital of the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region. The authorities stated that they confiscated about 21 pounds (9.5 kg) of explosives, eight detonators, two explosive devices, and some propaganda materials for “holy war.” Authorities stated that the plot, along with a foiled in January, was linked to the terrorist/separatist group the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch each voiced concern over this recent mass arrest, as Chinese authorities failed to provide any direct evidence to the public.

Happy Friday! 4 Quick Items about subjects we have touched on recently:

1. Joshua Foust at Registan.net brings greater depth to this blog’s analysis of Central Asia’s water problems which appeared yesterday. Along with discussing Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan’s recent water troubles, Foust reports on a recent raid by Tajikistan citizens into Kyrgyzstan in order to destroy a dam that was blocking an irrigation canal into a nearby Tajik village. Make sure to check out some of his links, especially this one which lists the Top 3 possible water conflicts in the region.

2. Ariel Cohen, a security and Shanghai Cooperation Organization expert at the Heritage Foundation, gives his take on Iran’s recent official request to join the SCO. He correctly argues that China and Russia want to avoid creating an SCO that is explicitly anti-US/Western, and therefore, predicts Iran will have a difficult time gaining full membership in the current international political environment. However, Cohen cautions that recent US moves, support for Kosovo’s independence, pushing for Ukraine and Georgia’s admission into NATO, and the Eastern Europe Missile Shield placements, have caused Russian/US relations to deteriorate and may have Moscow looking for venues to strike back against US interests. Cohen also asserts that China and Russia might listen more intently to Iran’s SCO request to head off US encroachment in the Central Asian region.

3. Here is a mainstream Chinese perspective on their ‘Go West’ Policy. The report regards the government’s policy as a success in developing the economy and infrastructure of Xinjiang Province, and many other provinces, in China’s western region and how this has led to burgeoning trade with several Central Asian border-states. The story uses the UN’s Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) annual survey as evidence to back up its claims and makes no mention as to the social and cultural costs that have been inflicted on western China’s longtime inhabitants.

4. Marco Vicenzino, here at FPA, wrote a can’t miss analysis of the on-going NATO Summit, critiquing its members for not giving the mission in Afghanistan the ‘appropriate attention or critical debate it deserves.’

On May 2-4, Moscow will host a major International AIDS conference that will focus on the virus’s growth in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.  In an interview, Peter Piot, Executive Director of UNAIDS, stated that ‘HIV is increasing more rapidly in Central Asia than in any other part of the world.’  Piot blames widespread injecting-drug use and prostitution for the virus’s growing strength in the region.  The Moscow Conference will be attended by representatives from all the CA countries, and the issue HIV prevention, particularly regarding drug-use, will be ‘very high’ on the agenda.

Matthew Bryza, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, spoke out in support of Gazprom’s price hike for buying Central Asian gas and voiced his opposition to the creation of a Gas OPEC at a conference at Georgetown University.  Bryza stressed the importance of market forces in the supply of gas to Europe and argued that the extensive profits that Gazprom receives, has gone to ‘nefarious uses,’ such as organized crime and providing a ‘disincentive for reform, be it of the countries along the supply chain, or Gazprom itself.’  This last remark was a clear accusation that Russia’s control of the gas supply system has kept Central Asian states’ authoritarian and corrupt leaders in place and protected.  These are some of the first comments by a US government official I have seen concerning Russia’s recent increase in payments to CA gas producing states.

Quick one: Since transparency continues to be an issue in Central Asia and elsewhere, I found this article of interest–and it uses the U.S. as an example, but the principles are perhaps universal.  Over at How Stuff Works: how to launder money. 

Now don’t go saying I told you what to do here!  :-)  The idea is to develop the street smarts on transparency issues. 

Further Reading:
Transparency International Home
TI’s Europe and Central Asia page
The Publish What You Pay coalition, an international effort for states and corporations

Right now, there’s a wealth of events and things to do concerning Central Asia and its partners in the world: and I’m always looking for more, so send them via comment.  Most of the ones I know about are in the U.S. northeast.  If there’s an event elsewhere, on this continent or any other, I would be happy to post it: these electrons travel everywhere.

Photography:
Eurasianet is featuring three beautiful black and white photographs of Afghanistan’s people, taken by David Trilling.  These photos are part of an exhibit at Colombia University’s School of International Affairs.  “Baharistan Journal 2003-2007” will be up through November 5th.  the photos show Afghanistan’s people from the vantage of the street – dignity and vulnerability against a stark landscape.

Music:
On Sunday, November 4, the Freer + Sackler Gallery of the Smithsonian Institution is featuring new music from Chinese composers.  In case you can’t make it to the Sackler, there’s some audio samples here.  Very beautiful, yes?  Settles the soul.

Video Interview:
China’s 17th Party Congress is discussed at a video at the Brookings Institution along with a related briefing, that names the names and explains the significance.

Upcoming briefings and lectures:
For those of you whose Central Asia interest extends across the Caspian and into the Caucasus, several noteworthy events for next week–I’ll be at a bunch of them, but not all– gracious!  It’s not much notice, either, but it gives one a chance to look at various places to continue one’s learning, maybe for some other week.  You can also check these sites afterward for transcripts, videos, and proceedings in the quest for further knowledge.

The Columbia School of International Affairs (SIPA) has an all-day event on Turkey and Islam, somewhere in New York City.  Here is the contact information to RSVP.

The Woodrow Wilson Center will be discussing the U.S. and Russia in Eurasia on Monday, November 5th.  Send in your RSVP today!

The Cato Institute will be discussing Georgia’s Transformation to a Market Economy on Thursday, November 8th.  This is also an RSVP event.

Have a Great Weekend Everybody!  See you around town!

Photo: Encore Studios

In the Central Asia Beat, I referred to the Akhal-Teke horse, and then I found some video footage.  This horse show video shows a lot of the conformation, coloring, and other physical points of the breed–at its first European horse show in June of this year, in Luxembourg.  There’s no plot per se: it’s a vid for horse enthusiasts, 4 minutes. 

You can see why they are considered a national treasure: very distinctive looking horses, yes?  And now Mr. Karimov has one.

A curious mix of science, publicity, politics, engineering, and Big Bucks:  no, not a new Matrix movie.  Instead, the latest installment of business/political cooperation into the stratosphere continues to develop, a legend in the making and well worth our attention.  Yesterday, a new Russian space flight from Kazakhstan’s Baikonur, with a crew of many nations.  According to Reuters:

Inside the capsule was NASA astronaut Peggy Whitson, 47, who will take over command of the station for the next six months, flight engineer cosmonaut Yuri Malenchenko, 45, and Sheikh Muszaphar Shukor, a 35-year-old orthopedic surgeon and part-time model from Malaysia.

Shukor’s flight is part of a commercial deal Russia cut to sell aircraft to Malaysia.

Well, now that business is fully involved, and models, there should be a new movie or two out of this, that involves models, Malaysia, various large corporations, and perhaps endangered species and/or monsters.

All those that would like to develop a plot are free to use the comment space below.  There are agents waiting to hear from you.

Luxury Trade:
Also, those that want to develop Baikonur further in order to stave off those pesky Russians from developing a new, non-Kazakh space station: we need both engineers for improved technology and more people who understand the luxury trade.  Because Malaysia’s hottest models and the US’s most interesting moguls keep turning up in Baikonur, and I’m sure they want state of the art accommodations as well as state of the art safety features.   I’m thinking anodyzed color finishes on the space suits, for one thing.  And a few accessories, such as a chiffon muffler that floats out in zero gravity.  A bridal package, with a cake stuffed in Mylar.  Stuff like that.

Seriously, though: congratulations to Malaysia and all of the crew from every state.  We wish you safety and good science.