Central Asia

Here are a few interesting items to keep you cool this weekend.

The Central Asia plus Japan Dialogue fourth representational level meeting took place in Tashkent on July 15. For Japan the meeting was ‘aimed to deepen the multifaceted interaction with Central Asia and Uzbekistan, provide for stability and regional security, enhance the trade and economic relations.’

The US Senate confirmed General Petraeus as the chief of Middle East and Central Asia Central Command last week. I guess this is kind of important, right? Petraeus replaces Admiral William Fallon, who stepped down a couple months ago (rumored to be because of policy differences with the Bush Administration regarding Iran policy), and will be replaced by Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno as the lead military man in Iraq.

Not sure how big this story may get, but Stephen Payne, a Houston businessman and GOP activist, is now under a House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform investigation, probing whether he violated federal law by suggesting he could arrange access to top White House officials for Kyrg government officials, including President Akayev, in return for large donations to the Bush presidential library. There is a recorded video of Payne and Akayev meeting and discussing meetings with President Bush and VP Cheney in exchange for hundreds of thousands of dollars to the library.

I wrote a short exert about the passing of Kyrg author/ambassador Chinghiz Aitmatov, and now here’s a sad story from Eurasia.net discussing Aitmatov accomplishments and Kyrgyzstan’s lack of an ability to produce another influential writer or artist.

I am originally a California boy, but I had no idea the northern California city of Fremont had a significant Afghan population, which according to this interesting story, it does!  The piece discusses a local book club called ‘One Book, One Community‘ which recommended its readers check out ‘Three Cups of Tea,” the true story of Greg Mortenson’s travels and charity work in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Apparently, Mortenson was saved by a group of villagers in Pakistan after fallin g from K2 in the Himalyas, and decided to show his appreciation by building schools in remote parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan (now I just hope the Taliban doesn’t burn them all down). Anyways, the city of Fremont and even its mayor have taken on this mission and started donating to the cause themselves.

Russian President Dmitri Medvedev has made his second visit to Central Asia, this time stopping by Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan for the second time. Gas was apparently the only thing on the diplomatic menu. Medvedev and his Gazprom officials are wary of European and Chinese influence and engagement in the region’s energy resources, a sphere Russia has dominated for years, and this trip’s purpose appears to keep that monopoly intact.

Medvedev first went to Baku, Azerbaijan and reportedly told the nation that it was willing to buy up all of its Caspian Sea and land gas to keep it from heading to Europe via the BTC pipeline already functioning, or the Trans-Caspian and Nabucco pipelines in discussions right now. This would be a tall order for Medvedev to accomplish, as Azerbaijan has been courted by the West and strategically faced that way for some years now.

Immediately after this visit the Russian president visited Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan before heading off to the G-8 summit. Russia/Gazprom already dominate gas flow from these two states, but it faces growing competition from Europe and China and therefore wants to solidify its position. Last December, Russia and these two states agreed to build a new pipeline a while later Russia agreed to up its price for their energy resources, both moves to hurt Europe/China’s chances of getting in ‘on the game.’ The purpose of this recent visit also appears to be for Russia to buy up as much of the two nation’s gas as possible in order to stifle any deals the states would make with the EU/China and India for that matter. Russia’s energy policy is not one of just paranoia, as China has just announced the start of construction of a huge, 30 billion cubic meter natural gas pipeline transversing from Turkmenistan, through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, and ending in its own Xinjiang Province and EU representatives are in serious talks with Turkmen officials about the Trans-Caspian and Nabucco pipelines.

(Photo: Medvedev with Azerbaijan President Aliyev: Source Asianews.it)

Here are some short snipets with some reading material to get you through the weekend without fresh, red-hot Central Asian news!

Continuing our discussion about CA’s blood transfusion and HIV/AIDS problem on June 19, here is a more personal and touching story of the consequences of the region’s poorly managed and constructed health care system. This should not happen, period.

And for those of you still thirsting for some knowledge about the region’s water woes here is a short, but rather thorough explanation of the region’s difficulties when it comes to this vital resource.

On June 9, the Head of the Regional Center for Preventive Diplomacy in Central Asia, Miroslav Jenca, assumed office and hosted a meeting in Ashgabat on June 23. The Center is meant to provide assistance to the governments of CA in building up their capacity to resolve disputes peacefully. Sounds like a worthy mission, good luck.

Here are two reviews of Sergei Bodrov’s new motion picture ‘Mongol’, the story of Ghenghis Khan; one positive, one negative. Both reviewers thought the film was visually pleasing, but only one thought the narrative worth listening to. It stated that ‘Mongol’ provides an ‘authentic-looking glimpse at the culture and customs, hardships and tribal rivalries of life in Central Asia 1,000 years ago. If I see the movie, I hope to, I will give you my expert film critique (warning I love ‘Spaceballs)

Lastly, I know you’ve been clamoring for more horse-riding for peace stories so here you go. Majid Charhesht, an Iranian sports fanatic, is crossing Central Asia on horseback all the way to Beijing for the Olympics. In 2004, he made his way to the Athens Olympics by way of roller skates! At least he’s doing it for a worthy cause, world peace.

Have a great weekend!

After a couple weeks of poor news regarding Afghani security, there was finally some positive developments as a force of Afghan troops supported by NATO armored vehicles and helicopters appeared to rout Taliban forces who recently took over the Arghandab region surrounding Kandahar. A NATO official called it a ‘fast and effective’ response. However, the exact extent of the mission and its accomplishments still appeared a little murky as there are claims that the Taliban presence was exaggerated and it was unknown how many of there forces escaped capture.

The New York Times editorial board took a glance at Afghanistan’s situation and did not like what they saw, calling for NATO allies to ‘beef up their forces,’ heavily criticizing Bush’s attention to the war (too harsh in my opinion), and demanding answers from the two presidential candidates as to how they would handle the situation. I, myself, have only heard Obama chastise Bush’s policy and McCain voice his overall support of the effort, nothing about what they would do differently to help this strategic, yet dangerous nation.

I will have no comments at the moment, but please take a look at some of these news conference statements from US Assistant Secretary of State for South and central Asian Affairs Richard Boucher and a USAID official:
1. “Briefing on the International Conference in Support of Afghanistan“

2. “Special Briefing on the International Conference in Support of Afghanistan“
3. “Pakistan/Afghanistan - US Relations“

Not to be outdone, the FPA held a great event last week titled “Afghanistan: Problems and Approaches” featuring former Deputy Assistant Secretary and Ambassador Ronald E. Neumann. A video of the event is embedded on our website, check it out!

Here is a Friday Link Laydown of hopefully some informative and interesting items:

A. Iranian President Ahmadinejad recent visit to India is analyzed with a geopolitical mindset by MK Bhadrakumar, a former Indian diplomat. India and Iran’s postures and interests in Central Asia are discussed, as is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Bhadrakumar gives a fresh Indian perspective of Central Asia, Iran, and the SCO and is quite critical of US foreign policy.

B. Kazakhstan’s vice minister of foreign affairs Nurlan Ermekbayev just had talks with the US State Department and National Security Council in Washington DC. Deepening bilateral cooperation and enforcing global and regional security were apparently hot topics of discussion. My apologies for the tiny size of the report.

C. Yet another report about declining press freedom in the world. The World Association of Newspapers (WAN) reports in their half-year review that 28 journalists have been killed so far and that corrupt and autocratic governments putting press freedom under ’serious threat.’ Central Asia is mentioned multiple times and it’s not good news.

D. Here, and right here, are a couple articles about South Korea’s diplomatic and strategic efforts to court CA states. Prime Minister Han Seung-soo and the South Koreans mainly seek energy supplies for their nation, which must be remembered has Asia’s third largest economy.

E-Z. China and five CA states summited their first national lists of Silk Road treasures/artifacts in a joint application to World Cultural Heritage. China nominated 48 sites, Kazak 10, Kyrg 7, Tajik 8, Turkmenistan 57, and Uzbek 33.

Have a great weekend!

Let’s join the club!

Unfortunately, a definitive majority of news I report on and discuss on this blog is of the negative kind. It does them a true adage that good news is not really news people tend to be drawn to. I looked at many of the reports, articles, and other blog topic ideas I have gathered recently and about 50% were negative toned and most of the others were strictly analytical, with only a few being positive. There is good news in Central Asia, right?

Yes, there is. But like most things in life it comes with caveats and concerns. The latest IMF Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia sees a ‘Bright‘ outlook. The report cites commodity prices remaining high, surging investments, and strong productivity gains as it predicts sustained growth above 6% in the region. The Outlook states that all the countries included, except Kazakhstan, were largely unscathed by the recent financial downturn enveloping the developed world. It is true that much of the growth has to do with tremendous rise in energy prices and the fact that many of the world’s major energy suppliers are from these two regions, but the Outlook does an effective job of organizing the region’s nations into three categories, oil exporters, low-income countries, and emerging markets, and offering separate analysis’s of their unique situation.

Even with positive signs of economic growth the region has many structural problems and poverty is blatant throughout CA, but this is overall good news. The region, like the rest of the world, is indeed going through tough economic times, and in some cases things appear to be getting worse, not better. But growth is positive, and hopefully this continues and signifies a brighter future for the region.

For all you lucky readers I have a present…Press Conference reports from US State Department officials about ongoing relations with Central Asia! Calm down please.

Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary, Pamela Spratlen (Photo, left) recently made diplomatic visits to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan and in each destination held a press conference.

In Bishkek, she participated in what was called the second Comprehensive Policy Dialogue with Foreign Minister Ednan Karabayev and introduced the Millennium Challenge Corporation Threshold program. Kyrgyzstan, which is the first country in CA to be selected to participate, will receive $16 million dollars to help them reform their judicial, law enforcement, and criminal justice sectors. Spratlen also voiced her disapproval of the Kyrg government’s recent handling of the December 2007 elections, which it still has failed to release the results of, during the press conference. Spratlen also answered questions regarding recent local protests against the US use of the Manas base in the country.

In Dushanbe, Spratlen discussed her meetings with Tajik government officials, civil society, NGOs, and members of the business community and stressed that the questions that were of ’special interest’ to her were regarding development of democratic institutions and civil society, and about economic recovery and growth, specifically concerning the effects of the recently passed harsh winter. A discussion of the security situation in Afghanistan along with questions pertaining to the US use of Uzbekistan’s Termez airbase (she reiterated that ‘it’s not our airbase. It won’t be our airbase.’ Just that ‘our citizens can use it.’) were highlights of the press conference. Lastly, a reporter from the BBC asked her about the recent controversy over Tajik government’s falsification of its finances to the IMF. She answered that the US and the international community were ‘very concerned’ and had ‘lost some of its confidence’ that the Tajik government fully understood all of its responsibilities to the IMF and the needs of its people.

Just over a week ago, Richard Boucher, Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asia (Spratlen’s boss), held a press briefing titled ‘The Year Ahead in South and Central Asia.’ I have actually not had time to read it all the way over so I will hold my comments until next week, but here is a short review of his statements (to no one’s surprise it appears that Afghanistan was a major topic of discussion, but also Indian energy relations in the CA too).

Have a great weekend!

(Photo Source: US State Department Website)

New York City’s Winkleman Gallery is currently exhibiting seven media projects called “I Dream of the Stans: New Central Asian Video.” One of the exhibitions curators, Leeza Ahmady, stated that their aim was to ‘assemble a representative collection that highlighted the adventurous spirit of regional artists.’ The exhibition features such CA artists as Said Atabekov, Rustam Khalfin, Julia Tikhonova, and Almagul Menlibayeva. Freelance journalist Deirdre Tynan wrote a critique and informative description for Eurasia.net. Parts of the exhibitions videos and stills can be seen on the Winkleman Gallery’s website here.  In case anyone is near by, the exhibition we continue until April 26.

In yet another sign that Turkmenistan is coming out of its isolationist shell, Ashgabat just finished hosting a meeting between the European Union’s Troika and Central Asia’s foreign ministers. The Troika is headed by Slovenian Foreign Minister Dimitrij Rupel, EU External Relations Commissioner Ferrero-Waldner, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, and the EU’s special representative for Central Asia, Pierre Morel. The main premise for the meeting focused on the implementation of EU’s new strategy for Central Asia that includes increasing cooperation between the two regions regarding education, legal norms, economy, trade, energy, drug trafficking, border management, water issues and the environment.

In an interview, EU External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner addressed the diverse agenda of the Troika’s meetings with the CA foreign ministers. She stated that cooperation and relations were ‘growing rapidly’ and discussed ways in which the EU could help the region develop, for instance she emphasized the EU-Central Asia Invest project and how the EU had allocated 314 million euros for regional and bilateral cooperation in the region, along with issues of mutual concern, such as security and energy supplies. Concerning energy, Ferrero-Waldner stated that the diversification of supply and export routes was an important part of the meeting’s agenda.

Andrea Schmitz, a scholar at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin, while acknowledging that the development of an EU-CA energy partnership makes a lot of sense for each side, basically so they each could circumvent Russian influence, accurately argues that this is easier said then done. As of right now, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have nearly all their energy export routes through Russian territory with sizable contracts backing them up. Proposals for alternative gas supple routes have been kicked around for years, yet all pipelines to European markets still flow through Russian territory. Schmitz laments that ‘as long as the EU doesn’t have a common energy policy itself, we won’t have a chance to compete with Russia.’

The EU also faces another hurdle in its energy and strategic dealings with its Central Asian counterparts; its policy of promoting democracy and human rights. Energy, water issues, business dealings were on the table for this meeting and others between the groups, but so were human rights and more open and accountable governmental practices. As Ferrero-Waldner states ‘there will also be the question of human rights, because as you know, human rights are indeed a very important part of our external relations.’ In the aforementioned interview, Ferrero-Waldner responded to several human rights inquiries, specifically regarding Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, and was cautious in her answers, stating that democratization, rule of law, and the development of human rights will ‘take a certain time.’ Concerning Uzbekistan specifically, she stated ‘engagement’ as the best way for the EU to encourage positive developments in furthering these issues.

Unlike CA state dealings with Russia or China, the EU and the United States are held to higher liberal and democratic standards, and even though it can hurt their interests, they bring these ideals to the negotiating table. There is great domestic pressure on US and EU diplomats to push for more open and accountable CA state governments and societies, for example Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch each called on the EU to emphasize human rights progress during this latest summit. The EU and US must perform a complicated dance to further their own strategic and financial interests in CA and at the same time attempt to promote liberal, democratic ideals of governance and society.

In other news, the Chinese government announced yesterday the arrest of 35 people, suspected to be plotting a terrorist attack at the upcoming Beijing Olympics, in Urumqi, the capital of the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region. The authorities stated that they confiscated about 21 pounds (9.5 kg) of explosives, eight detonators, two explosive devices, and some propaganda materials for “holy war.” Authorities stated that the plot, along with a foiled in January, was linked to the terrorist/separatist group the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch each voiced concern over this recent mass arrest, as Chinese authorities failed to provide any direct evidence to the public.

Happy Friday! 4 Quick Items about subjects we have touched on recently:

1. Joshua Foust at Registan.net brings greater depth to this blog’s analysis of Central Asia’s water problems which appeared yesterday. Along with discussing Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan’s recent water troubles, Foust reports on a recent raid by Tajikistan citizens into Kyrgyzstan in order to destroy a dam that was blocking an irrigation canal into a nearby Tajik village. Make sure to check out some of his links, especially this one which lists the Top 3 possible water conflicts in the region.

2. Ariel Cohen, a security and Shanghai Cooperation Organization expert at the Heritage Foundation, gives his take on Iran’s recent official request to join the SCO. He correctly argues that China and Russia want to avoid creating an SCO that is explicitly anti-US/Western, and therefore, predicts Iran will have a difficult time gaining full membership in the current international political environment. However, Cohen cautions that recent US moves, support for Kosovo’s independence, pushing for Ukraine and Georgia’s admission into NATO, and the Eastern Europe Missile Shield placements, have caused Russian/US relations to deteriorate and may have Moscow looking for venues to strike back against US interests. Cohen also asserts that China and Russia might listen more intently to Iran’s SCO request to head off US encroachment in the Central Asian region.

3. Here is a mainstream Chinese perspective on their ‘Go West’ Policy. The report regards the government’s policy as a success in developing the economy and infrastructure of Xinjiang Province, and many other provinces, in China’s western region and how this has led to burgeoning trade with several Central Asian border-states. The story uses the UN’s Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) annual survey as evidence to back up its claims and makes no mention as to the social and cultural costs that have been inflicted on western China’s longtime inhabitants.

4. Marco Vicenzino, here at FPA, wrote a can’t miss analysis of the on-going NATO Summit, critiquing its members for not giving the mission in Afghanistan the ‘appropriate attention or critical debate it deserves.’