Afghanistan and Central Asia

About a month ago, a 4,000 large contingent of American, Canadian, British, Danish, Australian, and Afghan soldiers made a heroic (yes, I’m watching and Saving Private Ryan right now, and these troops are just as valiant) effort in delivering a huge turbine to south Afghanistan’s Kajaki Dam. Here is an update on those efforts which would more than double the electrical output in the Helmand Province along with many others which are in the heart of NATO/Afghan government’s battle for supremacy against the Taliban.

The large turbine has yet to be installed, but its safe arrival has brightened the prospects for the everyday lives of thousands of Afghani’s, many of which live with only a couple hours of electricity a day. Though the $180 million dollar US-funded Kajaki Dam project is a great sign of hope, the events surrounding its arrival and installation portray the trying situation of the country. The Taliban are in control of much of the south and they have tried to derail the Kajaki’s production and further improvement ever since 2001. The workers, both foreign and local, need protection from Taliban elements, who do not want to see the Afghan government gain control or legitimacy in the area, as a successful energy project such as the giant new turbine would provide.

In fact this project, along with the work and targeting of aid workers, could not paint a more clear picture of one aspect of this conflict that can be well-defined. Magnus Linklater said it best:

“Whose values best represent the interests of ordinary Afghans - those of the Western aid agencies working to shore up the country’s infrastructure by building dams and opening up roads, or the violent extremists who shot Gayle Williams? {aid worker}”
The words of Helmand Province’s governor also tell the story:

“The children of Afghanistan will not forget the work done for this power station.”

As was mentioned, this project is far from complete and its future is far from assured, in fact if the turbine is successfully installed and starts to give southern Afghan’s a greater supply of energy and jobs, it will be in many ways miraculous. These soldiers and workers, both foreign and local, may not be landing on a Nazi-controlled Normandy beach, but their efforts are giving a small swath of the world’s citizens a chance at a better life.

(Map Source: New York Times)
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Good morning everyone. Hey, has anyone of you been writing academic reports analyzing another nation’s society and political system, while at the same time taking money from that country’s government to do so? If you said yes, you may be Johns Hopkins University’s Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, which is directed by the much respected S. Frederick Starr.

The Hopkins Institute disclosed funding for three recent reports about modern Kazakhstan, revealing that the Kazak government-funded Washington lobbying firm APCO Worldwide provided $52,300. The reports titled ‘Kazakhstan’s New Middle Class’, Parliament and Political Parties in Kazakhstan,’ and ‘Kazakhstan in its Neighborhood’ all look rather interesting and pdf’s of them can be found from the link above. The reports authors and Starr deny any wrongdoing and insist that the research and conclusions were not influenced in anyway by the Kazak government.

On the other side, Paul Goble, another CA expert at the Institute of World Politics, warns of the dangers of this type of funding:

“The sources of funding should be clearly stated. If they are not or if there is even the hint that someone is hiding something, there will be suspicions, justified or not, about whatever appears.”

He added: “We in this country have an obligation to provide a best practices model for countries like Kazakhstan whose political and intellectual elites emerged from the Soviet system and do not fully understand the importance of transparency and thus may be tempted to use funds in ways that we would and should find problematic.”

This is a bit of a sticky issue, as the Kazak government should be able to fund projects that further attention and research on their nation in the world’s most influential state, the US, but as Goble alludes to, the line between academics and politics is a thin one. I tend to believe that as long as Johns Hopkins accurately reports their funding, and there’s no reason to doubt they did, combined with continued transparency on how and why they are researching and reporting on what they are, the positives outweigh the negatives.

What do you think? When you’re done thinking, have a good weekend.

Two days ago, a French aid worker was the latest to be targeted by Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan. In this case the aid worker, who was reportedly an education specialist from an unknown NGO, was kidnapped by a small group of Taliban members, who in the process killed a young Afghan civilian. Reportedly 19 humanitarian aid workers have been killed so far this year, which surpasses the 15 victims of 2007.

Why are the Taliban targeting and killing/kidnapping foreign and local aid workers? Is it because they are foreigners who may be proselytizing Christianity or other religions? This probably has something to do with it. Though many of these aid workers are actually Afghans who share the Taliban’s Muslim faith, it is true that there are Western foreigners there from many different NGOs, making them more suspicious.

But I, and Stratfor agrees, believe that they are mainly targeted as way to embarrass/undermine the Afghan government and NATO troop presence. These workers are trying to spread education, health, infrastructure, business, and good governance in the nation, and if they are successful, along with the Afghan government, the Taliban are cooked. As in their ability to replace the government will become less likely. They need to foment instability and chaos in places where the Afghan government is present and solidify their rule where it is absent. Concerning NATO and foreign NGOs, many European nations and groups support for the ISAF and Afghan state building are becoming shaky and less long-term committal, and these aid worker attacks are not making them feel any better. The resolve of the Afghan people, Afghan government, NATO forces, NGOs, and NATO home citizens is being challenged by these Taliban attacks. We have to be ready to meet these challenges, for the alternative is a ruler who believes no one is safe, not even Muslim aid workers building schools.

(Photo Source: New York Times)

Just last Thursday, Kazakhstan’s thriving capitol, Astana, hosted the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s Heads of Government Council meeting. I could not find many reports about what was accomplished at the meeting besides the official statement from the group’s website, which was drier than a drought in the Sahara’s. The official statement reported that the group’s members discussed further collaboration on various business and economic issues. There was no mention of a Gas Club or of the advancement of new members, specifically Iran.

It is possible new administrations coming in the United States and in Iran, there may be a chance for rapproachment, and this may actually increase the chances of Iran gaining greater SCO cooperation, as the nation’s strained relations with Washington make it a dangerous partner to invite. I still find it difficult to believe that Iran will be allowed in the SCO anytime soon, as China is too cautious to invite such attention abroad, for what would probably be minimal gains. Though there are others who feel it is a match made in heaven. Also of note, Mongolia’s, a staunch US ally, President attended the annual SCO Summit last August and had a representative at this latest meeting.

Back to Iran, here is a well-thought out analysis of how the dramatic drop in oil prices from all time highs has caused the reassessment of the foreign policy approaches of Iran, Russia, and Venezuela. The bombast, outward looking regimes of these three states may have to back off some of their ambitious agenda’s in their respective regions.

(Photo Source: SCO Official Website: Those are some handsome looking fellas!)

In all the violent incidents that have plagued the people of Afghanistan in its recent history, many have died, but even more have been permanently maimed and disabled. Below is a remarkable video about some of the Afghani disabled and their struggle for rights and services: Because the New York Times, who produced this video, will not allow me to embed the video for some reason, please click here to watch.

And because I would rather leave you for the weekend on a more optimistic note, here are two more light-hearted and hopeful pieces.

David Sherman is an American veterinarian who works for an international NGO in Afghanistan providing medical to its citizen’s pet and farm animals. Sherman has had some amazing experiences in the country and it has definitely affected his life perspective.

And if you thought that story was soft, then check this one out! It is a review of a Chinese cookbook, ‘Beyond the Great Wall: Recipes and Travels in Other China.’ The book spotlights Uighur, Kazak and Tajik peoples, customs, and food. Let me know if you find any worthwhile recipes.

Yesterday, I made a statement that it appeared that the Pakistani government was implicitly alright with the use of US drone predator missile attacks in their territory, as long they avoided civilian casualties. While according to statements by Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry and several members of the country’s ruling coalition, this is not completely true. The Foreign Ministry and several parliament members requested the appearance of US Ambassador Anne Patterson so they could voice their protest of such measures to the US government. The For Ministry stated that the missile attacks should ’stop immediately’ as they argued that not only were they undermining Pakistani sovereignty and legitimacy, they were just adding fuel to the fire and turning the whole Pakistani populace against the US/NATO forces in Afghanistan. A report stated that many Pakistani’s even blamed the recent Marriot Hotel attack in Islamabad on US air strikes.

The US military/government and the Pakistani military/government are both smashed tightly between a rock and a hard place. The US desires to stabilize Afghanistan and keep its troops safe and they believe one of the best way to do this is to go after the Taliban and Al Qaeda elements were ever they may be, as was shown by a similar US strike in Syria against militant forces. The Pakistani government/military are fighting for legitimacy and the right to govern their own lands. Though we all know the issue is more complicated than just these two aims for each side, I would like to think that these goals can have one combined strategy. Afterall, the US would love to have a stronger Pakistani government that could effectively rule over all its sovereign territory and the Pakistani government needs some help in putting down the Taliban, at least to a point where many of them would be forced to negotiate.

How are the goals of the Pakistani government/military and US government/military congruent? Different?

Today I would like to go over recent developments in the conflict spanning the Afghan-Pakistan border as the conflict’s many sides (NATO, Afghans, Taliban, Pakistan military, Al Qaeda, and local tribes) have all recently been in the news for various reasons: The Bush administration has authorized even greater use of missile/drone attacks inside of Pakistan, the Pakistan army has made some headway into the tribal region of Bajur, Tribal leaders have attempted to once again rise up and challenge the Taliban, and Afghan and Pakistan tribal and political leaders have moved ever closer to negotiations with elements of the Taliban.

US forces have been using drones to target Al Qaeda and Taliban units since the beginning of the war, but this strategy has increased greatly of late and has moved ever deeper into Pakistan sovereign territory. Slate’s William Saleton catalogs many recent attacks, including one yesterday in which 20 people were reportedly killed, and argues with evidence from a New York Times article that despite claims from Pakistani officials, their government tacitly supports this tactic.

What the Pakistan government is adamantly against in the presence of US/NATO troops on their territory, as their officials argue it undermines their legitimacy. This is indeed true, but the US needs to see some results from the Pakistani military that these border regions are being governed and policed. While it appears that the Pakistani military, long accused of making deals that favor the Taliban, has made some progress in the Bajur area of the tribal belt. The region has been deemed a ‘mega sanctuary’ for the Taliban militants and after two months of hard fighting the Pak military has caused an outright fleeing of militant elements from the area. However, the holding of this strategic region will be the true test of the will and ability of the Pak military, this is indeed a welcome development.

Another encouraging sign is the slight reintroduction of lashkars, or tribal militias, into the fight against the Taliban and Al Qaeda in the tribal regions. These tribes and their leaders have been decimated, first by the Pakistani gov in the 1980s (with US help) in their fight against the Soviets, and recently by the Taliban since 2001, who have strongly challenged their rule in the tribal regions. Despite great mortal threat to their lives, many lashkars are rising up, and supporting the Pakistan army in removing the Taliban from their regions. It seems impossible to imagine the Taliban defeated without the help and reemergence of these lashkars.

Lastly, a delegation of Afghan and Pakistani officials met in Islamabad to approach the issue of reconciliation with elements of the Taliban who would recognize both state constitutions and renounce violence. The US remained quiet on this issue, weary of former Pak gov deals with the militants, but has stated that it supports reconciliation with those elements who give up violence. Here is an excerpt:

Pakistani and Afghan leaders vowed Tuesday to seek dialogue with Taliban insurgents, saying the “door is now open” for reconciliation.

The declaration by political and tribal leaders adds force to existing moves in Afghanistan and Pakistan to talk to the militants amid what appears to be growing international recognition that dialogue with moderates is key to ending the violence.

Former Afghan Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah said both countries would talk only with those militants who “accept the constitutions of both nations,” but did not explicitly say they must first disarm.

Another delegate to the two-day talks between political and tribal leaders in the Pakistani capital of Islamabad said that the offer was not open to al-Qaida members blamed for some of the worst violence in both countries.

Just like the reemergence of the lashkars and more strategic uses of attacks in border tribal areas, negotiations with elements of the Taliban that are willing to live peacefully in the region will be necessary for a conclusion to this current conflict.

What do this new, and old, developments and strategies mean for the future of this conflict? Are these positive developments or just one more part of a long, sad story?

(Photo Source: New York Times: Tribal Militias with the Pakistani Army)

Ever since the Soviet Union’s collapse, the region of Central Asia, flush with newly minted states, has struggled to come up with a regional water arrangement to suit all those involved. In recent weeks, the region’s governmental leaders have been working on a short-term water sharing deal, and it now appears their work has come to a successful conclusion.

Here is an excerpt explaining the agreement’s intricacies and processes from The Times of Central Asia:

“After the conference of [our] heads of state in Bishkek [on October 10], we eventually managed to sign an agreement on measures to live through the very difficult autumn-winter period of 2008-2009 at a meeting of the deputy prime ministers of the five Central Asian countries on October 18 in Almaty,” Shukeyev said.
“It is the first such agreement between our five countries in the history of their independence,” he stressed. According to Shukeyev, similar agreements between the four countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan were terminated in 2004-2005, and afterwards the distribution of water, electricity, and fuel, as well as operation of the region’s united energy system, was based on bilateral agreements, which did not encompass the entire range of problems.
“Now Turkmenistan has been involved, because it is impossible to ensure a balanced operation of Central Asia’s energy system this year without Turkmen electricity,” the Kazakh deputy PM said. According to him, Turkmenistan has pledged to sell additional volumes of electricity to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan has promised to transit this electricity.
Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan will assist Kyrgyzstan in maintaining the current water level in the Toktogul reservoir, insuring its use for Kazakh and Uzbek irrigation during the coming agriculture season, Shukeyev said. He reminded that the water level in the Toktogul reservoir is critically low this year – now at 9.5 billion cubic meters.
“According to the agreement, Uzbekistan will deliver to Kyrgyzstan an additional 150 million cubic meters of gas [this winter]. We [Kazakhstan] will deliver [to Kyrgyzstan] fuel oil and coal. We have also assumed the obligation to make an advance payment for [Kyrgyz] electricity during the next agricultural season,” the Kazakh deputy PM said. “In exchange, Kyrgyzstan will now introduce a very rigid electricity saving regime, maximally use its coal- and gas-fired power plants, and introduce an almost 30 percent restriction on electricity consumption this winter,” he added.
In his words, during the coming agricultural season Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will buy 1.2 billion kWh of Kyrgyz electricity to ensure the irrigation of their arable lands. This is done primarily because discharging water from the Toktogul reservoir for the irrigation of Kazakh and Uzbek fields during the spring-summer season generates surplus electricity from the Toktogul power plant that is not needed inside Kyrgyzstan during the summer. At the same time, releasing the water during the summer causes water loss that is needed for generating electricity for domestic consumption during the following winter months.
(With Ferghana.ru, Kazakhstan Today)

Here is an analysis of the deal’s shortcomings and strengths from Paul Goble. Goble has wise words that this agreement has many tenuous attributes that are likely from making this a long lasting solution. The ability of Uzbekistan to follow through on all aspects of energy and water transfers will be one specific element to keep an eye and one area that could end up derailing the agreement. But compared to where things were at just a few weeks ago, this is a positive development that will hopefully bring some stability for the coming winter.

In other news, the countries of Central Asia and international organizations UN and OSCE held a two day conference on the prevention of the trafficking of drugs from Afghanistan through the region.

And that’s not all the cooperating going on, as many representatives from the region met in Tashkent to discuss Disaster Prevention, specifically regarding future earthquakes.

(Photo Source: zz77: Lake Tcharvak, a reservoir in Tashkent Province, Uzbekistan)

Continuing yesterday’s thread, I would like to highlight one major aspect of progress in Afghanistan; the role of women in the workplace and in society as a whole. To do this I will showcase the stories of a few particular women, and unfortunately in their stories there is great suffering and too visible of signs of how far the nation needs to go to be a place where there is equal opportunity and rights for all citizens. However, these stories which you are about to hear would be impossible before the Taliban’s removal in 2001 and would surely become negligible in the near future if the Taliban gained control back over more and more parts of the country.

Malalai Kakar became Police Lt.-Col. Malalai Kakar soon after the Taliban were overthrown in 2001 and she quickly rose to become Afghanistan’s highest ranking female police officer. Her bravery and will lead her to use her position to fight for and protect Afghan women suffering from domestic violence and other crimes. She chose this vocation knowing full well the threat to her physical life and in fact received death threats on a frequent basis. Unfortunately, her personal story ends on a tragic note, as perpetrators claiming to be members of the Taliban, finally murdered her and severely injured her son in late September. Kaker was obviously viewed as a mortal threat to the Taliban’s existence and way of life. If any one story personifies what is right and what is wrong, this has to be it. Kakar’s murderers need to be brought to justice, the Afghan populace needs to see that this is unacceptable and these wrongdoers will need to be seen paying their debt to society.

Unfortunately, this next story highlights that even the government and the country’s judicial system are at times anti-women’s and equal rights. Perwiz Kambakhsh, a young journalist, had a life sentence commuted to just 20 years in jail! for distributing an article critical of Muhammad’s treatment of women’s rights. What Kambakhsh wrote may have been offensive, but offensiveness should not translate to jail time or a death sentence. If the Afghan government is to reform the judicial system must become a greater voice and pillar of a constitution based on equality and freedom of speech.

Otherwise women and others who are oppressed will fear to speak out for their rights and well-being. Farida Nekzad, managing editor for Pajhwok Afghan News, discusses the dangers from all directions for those who dare to speak out for women’s rights and safety:
“When the reporters write about these issues, the ruling power does not want to tolerate it, does not want these issues to be heard by people or to be talked about,” she says. “When a woman leader comes out and talks about the issues of women’s rights, women’s freedom, and freedom of speech, that woman is in a lot of danger.”

So this trip through the progress of Afghan women has been bumpy to say the least, and this will no doubt continue, but I want to leave you a story of a group of women in the Bamian Province. These women now hold law enforcement positions, can drive a car, and a woman is actually governor of the entire province. I would like to say that this is a happy ending to my piece today, and in many ways it is, but we must know, as this group of women surely does, that their current way of life is being threatened everyday by the Taliban, other extremists, and at times their own government, and only time will tell what the future holds. But one things for sure, these women are extremely brave and their courage is no doubt an inspiration to all those who will hopefully follow in their footsteps. Enjoy the video.

If you read most of the news and editorial pieces I posted on Monday, you probably have a negative outlook on the stability and chances for progress in Afghanistan, and for the most part, rightly so. But there are positive things going on in the country, things that before 2001 probably seemed impossible to most Afghanis. I have mentioned before on this page that the tremendous work of NATO soldiers, humanitarian aid workers, and skilled trainers, both foreign and domestic, has brought progress to many sectors of Afghan life and that these people’s work was largely unreported, and this is still true today. The US State Department and the Afghan government are aware of this and have started to try to get the word out, but they need to do more. So does the overall US/Western/Middle East/Asia media, who too easily just report on the latest bombing, Taliban attack, civilian casualties, all vitally important, but not the entire story.

So as I said above, how has Afghanistan ‘improved’ lately and how has the US State Dep and Afghan government tried to get the word out about this progress? While US Ambassador and Coordinator for International Communications and Information Policy David A. Gross and his Afghan counterpart, Amir Zai Sangin, Minister of Communications and Information Technology have written editorials and made appearances in an attempt to showcase the nation’s progress in the communication field, mainly in the growth of the Internet and telephone industries. Though they acknowledge the tremendous amount of work to be done, they are proud of the accomplishments so far of the Afghan ministry of communications, which has ‘quickly licensed private mobil phone providers, effectively regulated a competitive communications environment and encouraged direct foreign investment into the extremely challenging post-conflict economy.’ In 2001, Afghanistan had fewer than 40,000 telephones and no cell phones, but today the country has 6 million telephone subscribers, of which an incredible 5.4 million of are cell phone. Five national and three highly competitive regional carriers support these networks. The amount of foreign direct investment in the telecommunications industry has exceeded $1 billion and the sector was expected to bring in revenues topping $100 million for the Afghan government.

Regarding the Internet, Afghanistan now has more than 500,000 Internet users and at least 18 providers. With US government support the Afghan government has started a project to construct a national fiber-optic network ring along with a new national system of highways. This project in Afghanistan is part of a larger State Department endeavor called the Global Internet Freedom Task Force, which brings together government, NGOs, and private industry to work toward these goals: 1. To address the challenges to free expression and the free flow of ideas on the Internet, 2. To advocate for the availability of the widest possible universe of content through the Internet, and 3. To actively minimize the success of repressive regimes in censoring information, and increase the transparency of content restrictions.

Perhaps the best aspect of a growing telecommunication’s network in Afghanistan is its ability to provide employment opportunities, as Gross and Sangin stated that already the sector has created 60,000 jobs. The other positives are that greater availability of phones and Internet services can help businesses begin and start up with greater potential for growth and these industries provide outlets for the Afghan people to see and hear views and cultures from anywhere in the world. New ideas and avenues for information will be more and more at their finger tips. The spread of greater telecommunications networks will hopefully also aid the Afghan government’s work, helping it be more efficient and effective in reaching its citizens and providing them the services they deserve. As Anne Applebaum of the Washington Post warns though, we must be careful where our aid money is spent, as even positive steps such as those mentioned above could have unintended negative consequences.

Tomorrow I will discuss another sign of progress in Afghanistan, the role of women in the workplace and in society. A few personal stories will show how far the nation has come since the oppressive Taliban regime, but also how far it has to go.