Danish journalist Michael Andersen argues yes. His new documentary, available via youtube, here: Documentary

His interview can be found on ferghana.ru’s website, http://enews.ferghana.ru/article.php?id=…

Radio Liberty comments here on official Islam.

Overall, I agree with Andersen. He can be reached at  michaelandersencentralasia at yahoo.com

At the end of December, leaders of Russia and Turkmenistan met to discuss the future of their relationship. First, on December 22, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and his Turkmen counterpart Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov met in Ashgabat and signed an agreement to expand bilateral “strategic” energy cooperation. Then the heads of Gazprom and Turkmengaz signed an agreement on the resumption of Turkmen gas supplies to Russia with the start of 2010, amounting to 30 billion cubic meters (bcm) annually.

These new agreements of cooperation and commerce are in the context of an improving world economy and rising demand for natural gas in Europe. It is also in the context of Turkmenistan’s growing diversification of gas buyers. According to the Jamestown Foundation, this January 5th, the Iranian President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, traveled to Turkmenistan to inaugurate a bilateral gas pipeline project, the 182 kilometer line from Dauletaban-Khangeran. During their bilateral talks, both sides pledged to raise the annual trade turnover to $10 billion, up from $3 billion in 2009.

Iran and Turkmenistan have taken advantage of their extensive border and dictatorial governing styles by instituting a series of strategic projects. For example, the Tejen-Sarahs-Mashhad railway line is operating between the two countries, as is the Dostluk water reservoir in the border area. On December 9 the two governments also inaugurated a jointly built gas storage and transportation terminal at Gylanly on Turkmenistan’s Caspian coast. (via Vladimir Socor with the Jamestown Foundation)

On December 14th, in Samandepe in eastern Turkmenistan, the starting point of the Central Asia-China gas pipeline, the President of China opened the valve that will send natural gas from Turkmenistan through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan to China. This is the first major gas pipeline that will be an alternative to Russian pipelines. 40 billion cubic meters (bcm) can flow through the line, mostly sourced in Turkmenistan. The gas is meant for Chinese domestic consumption, even as far as Shanghai. According to the NYTimes, that is equivalent to half of China’s current consumption of gas.

Of course, this raises so many issues. If the European pipeline, known as Nabucco, will ever be built, will there be enough gas for it? No way to know either of those. How will China affect Central Asian politics, both within countries and between them? Kazakh President Nazarbayev waxed hopeful, stating “The startup of this pipeline reconstructs the ancient Silk Roads and symbolizes friendship and cooperation.”

I have no reason to be either optimistic or pessimistic. Only 5 bcm will flow through the pipeline this year, increasing to at least 13 bcm in 2011, and reach the design capacity of 30 bcm per year by 2013. Will influence increase with the level of gas? We shall have to wait and see. For now, this pipeline has little affect on Russia, Gazprom and their hold on the European market. The status quo will hold true there. I am more interested in how Central Asia will be affected. On that front, I hope the Chinese pipeline will allow for more cooperation between the countries and more economic development.