Afghanistan and Central Asia

I wasn’t going to write a post today, it being Thanksgiving Day here and all, but then I read this article detailing recent laws in the works in all five of our CA states curtailing the freedom of religion. Yesterday, I spoke about one aspect, the wearing of the hijab in school settings in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and tried to provide both sides of the story, the government’s and citizens who felt infringed upon.

But this piece’s specific details regarding laws in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, which increase the required amount of members for a religious organization to operate legally, prohibit children from participating in religious organizations, and bans the distribution of religious materials in most public places, make it clear that these CA governments are going to far. I am sympathetic to their fear of religious extremism by these governments, but limiting the rights of their citizens to freely express themselves is both not right and dangerous as it may push these groups underground, where extremism may be even more likely to arise. The article details and promotes the work the OSCE, UN, and the US Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) in bringing attention to and fighting these laws restricting religious freedom. Here is a quote from USCIRF’s Chair Felice D. Gaer:

“If the president signs the law as passed by the parliament, religious freedom will be eroded in Kyrgyzstan, which used to enjoy the reputation of being most democratic of the post-Soviet Central Asian republics. The United States should work through diplomatic channels, including the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, to persuade the Kyrgyz and other Central Asian governments to roll back legislation that provides legal cover for egregious discrimination on the basis of religion.”

Now the US and these groups need to be careful as these states’ sovereignty must be respected, but I do not see a problem in pushing them for more openness, while at the same time working with them for regional stability. In the case of Kazakhstan, their Chairmanship of the OSCE in 2010 is a great piece of leverage to use on the Nazarbayev government to provide its citizens more religious freedom. The US will need to be cautious though as these CA leaders have Russia and China to turn to.

So on this Thanksgiving Day, I am thankful that there are media outlets, the United Nations, OSCE, NGOs, and the US to shine a light on the restriction of human and religious rights and slightly push these governments in a more open direction. I am also thankful to live in a country where I can practice or not practice any religion I so choose. Happy Thanksgiving everyone…Gobble, Gobble, Gobble…

The legal and cultural battle of whether or not Muslims should be able to wear a headscarf, hijab, in educational or other government facilities has been a well-publicized, contentious debate in such places as Turkey and France, both either straddling or inside the West, but this issue is also starting to boil in parts of Central Asia.  Abdumomun Mamaraimov and Saodat Asanova performed a thorough analysis of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan’s own present controversy over the wearing of the hijab by school students.

It appears that in the last few years, the Tajik and Kyrg governments have moved in the direction of disallowing the wearing of hijabs in their government-run schools.  Tajikistan’s government has formally banned the practice and Kyrgyzstan’s has done so more as a forced ‘recommendation.’  In any case, there are many citizens of the each state that feels this is a violation of their religious and individual rights.  It appears that a few, though not an incredible amount, of female students have either chosen, along with their families in most cases, to stop attending school or have been suspended or expelled.

While certain citizens are against this formal or informal ban, the government and education ministers claim it is a necessary measure against religious separation and extremism in a public sphere that the government desires to be secular.  Tajik Education Minister Abdujabor Rahmonov equates the hijab with conducting ‘propaganda for religious ideas in a secular society.’  Both the Kyrg and Tajik government are most in fear of the Islamic group Hizb-ut-Tahrir, a group that advocates the non-violent removal of the region’s secular governments with an Islamic state, but that has at times been connected to terrorist attacks.  The leaders of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan do indeed have reason to fear radical Islamists as they have caused problems in the past for each state.

But this brings us to the central part of the hijab argument.  It is obvious that most hijab wearers are just devout Muslims who mean no harm, but one cannot ignore that extremists do exist.  So is the hijab ban slowing or strengthening extremism?  Is the ban worth the loss of some religious and individual rights?  The end of the Mamaraimov and Asaova piece attempts to answer these difficult questions.  They rightly argue that the hijab cannot just be equated with Islamic extremism.  If I wear a cowboy hat it does not mean I just got back from a rodeo.  The two authors advocate a more nuanced approach to the conflict, though they don’t offer any specific recommendations, except for those who feel they are being prosecuted because of their hijab wearing to be patient.  The governments of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan need to communicate their reasoning for the ban.  Their citizens need to know their voices are heard.  At times, governments do need to make a law that punishes/restricts the many because of the wrongs of a few, but it is also the job of the government to clearly explain why such a law was passed.  Unfortunately, the accountability I am discussing probably goes beyond what can be expected from these two governments.  I also hold out hope that a compromise could be made, as in certain places in the school were the hijab is allowed or maybe just one day a week.  Either way these two societies need to do whatever they can not to alienate or disenfranchise a portion of their populace as this policy is meant to discourage, not encourage extremism.

Good news that hopefully just keeps getting better. The Afghan government, not US/NATO troops, has arrested 10 suspects in the Nov. 12 female student and teacher acid attack. It looks like it was a combination of local Kandahar and federal police and law officials who performed the investigation, arrests, and has reportedly garnered confessions from the suspects. The Afghan officials accused a high-ranking Taliban member of instigating the attack by offering 100,000 Pakistani rupees for any violence against Afghan schools and female students. Now this is almost definitely not a watershed moment showcasing Afghan government strength and law enforcement, but it is a positive development nonetheless, one that can hopefully lead to a greater sense of citizen faith in the government’s ability to protect and serve them.

Afghan Refugees
The Afghan government is portraying its growing strength in another area, its refugee and returnee situation. The International Conference on the Return and Reintegration of Afghan Refugees, co-hosted by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, which ‘expressed its intent to take overall responsibility for planning and implementing its national development strategy.’ The US state department has programmed $500 million dollars to aid the refugees and returnees, a large majority of funds needed, but the Afghan government has another opportunity to show its people what it is capable of.

U.S.-Afghan Women’s Council
US Under Secretary of State for Democracy and Global Affairs Paula Dobriansky just got back from a trip to Afghanistan where she met with President Karzai, Foreign Minister Spanta, and Women’s Affairs Minister Ghazanfar concerning the transition of the U.S.-Afghan Women’s Council to its permanent home at Georgetown University. Here is some real quick background on the Council:

The Council, which meets in Washington, DC and Kabul every year, was created by President Bush and Afghan President Hamid Karzai in 2002. Its mission is to help empower Afghan women to play a critical role in the reconstruction of their nation. The Council promotes public/private partnerships between U.S. and Afghan institutions and mobilizes private resources to help Afghan women gain the skills and education they need to improve their status and economic well-being. It also seeks to improve women’s access to health care and reduce the adult illiteracy that impedes Afghan women’s progress.

Lastly, Joshua at Registan.net gives a fascinating overview of homosexual life in Afghanistan since the Taliban’s overthrow in 2001. Alas, like most things in life there have been positives closely aligned with dramatic negatives.

The New York Times, which has done a more than decent job covering the people, culture, and political situation of the Uighurs in China’s Xinjiang Province, has a well-researched piece examining the impact of several mummified Xinjiang ancestors’ genetic background.

A museum in the province’s capital of Urumqi holds several well-preserved mummified humans found in the Tarim Basin. Some of these mummies are more than 4,000 years old and their genetic make-up is widely seen as an accurate way to answer the ‘who was there first’ question being fought over by the Han Chinese and Uighur Muslims. Forget, the Cold War, this is the true East vs. West battle.

Each group has their claims to regional legitimacy and both have obvious important ramifications to who rightly has claim to the region and its rule. It is for this reason that the Chinese government, fearing the genetic evidence from these mummies would verify the Uighur’s long-time presence, has been loath to let biological testing take place that they could not control. Nonetheless, foreign scholars have slipped away some tissue, which though still far from conclusive, has shown strong western roots in the region’s people. The mummies have been found to have Central Asian, Iranian, and even European traits.

However, it is near impossible to pin down exactly how long a specific group has ruled/inhabited an area, as can be sadly seen in the Caucasus and Balkan regions where each group has ancient stories and anthropological evidence to defend their claims. And even more important is what a group can do with the knowledge. The Uighurs of Xinjiang can uncover a book written by Mao proclaiming their rightful place and rule of the region and the Chinese government would find a way to discredit or ignore it.

This is truly a case where science meets politics. Only time will tell who wins….Politics.

(Source: New York Times)

It appears that the Taliban’s leader Mullah Omar may yet still have his day in the hot Afghan sun as President Karzai has publicly invited him to negotiations to end the violent conflict that has plagued the state since 2001. Karzai has promised the Taliban leader, who was ousted from power by the US in 2001, full protection from all sides. Karzai is taking a hardline on the issue, basically telling the international community, which holds a large stake in the country, to back off, at least regarding discussions with high Taliban officials. Karzai stated:

“If I say I want protection for Mullah Omar, the international community has two choices: remove me, or leave if they disagree.”

Karzai is no doubt trying to distance himself from the NATO international forces to strengthen his domestic appeal and legitimacy with his presidency up for election early next year. However, Karzai did stop by the UK late last week and reportedly briefed PM Gordon Brown on the possible negotiations. The US government has not vocally gone against the proposal, but cautioned that Omar, nor any other major Taliban figure, has never shown a ‘willingness to negotiate.’ In fact, Mullah Omar has not responded in any known way to Karzai’s rapprochement.

Negotiations with insurgents is already ongoing and will be necessary if Afghanistan and Pakistan are to find long-lasting piece, and this will include dealings with people with blood on their hands, but is effective and moral policy to hold free and fair talks with a person who led a brutal regime, which provided explicit shelter to the perpetrators of the 9/11 attacks? Mullah Omar still has a $10 million dollar US bounty on his head! This policy does not sound right to me. However, this conflict is one of immense challenges and duration and if making a deal with Omar or others his type, could bring peace and stability to the region, it may be worth it. But what would that peace look like? Would it require putting Omar and other Taliban leaders back in the government, but just at lesser positions? Too dangerous for me. Will it mean giving the FATA and southern Afghan provinces near total autonomy? That is not acceptable either, too much of a security risk.

What would negotiations between Karzai and Omar look like? What would be the best case scenario? What would each side have to give up? What would you do if you were the US? What would you do if you were Karzai? Mullah Omar?

I haven’t done much book reviewing on this blog besides Ahmed Rashid’s ‘Descent into Chaos‘, and that’s really not going to change, but I would like to list a group of recent publications concerning Afghanistan and Central Asia that you may find interesting and worth looking into.

Fixing Failed States: A Framework for Rebuilding a Fractured World - by Ashraf Ghani and Clare Lockhart, Ghani is a former Afghan government finance minister and much of the centers around Afghanistan.

Axis of Convenience: Moscow, Beijing, and the New Geopolitics - Bobo Lo, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is covered.

Organizations at War in Afghanistan and Beyond - Abdulkader H. Sinno, a study using organization theory to examine the participating conflicting groups in Afghanistan.

Petrostate: Putin, Power, and the New Russia - Marshall I. Goldman, the title says it all.

National Identity and Globalization: Youth, State, and Society in Post-Soviet Eurasia - by Douglas W. Blum, the author examines the fashioning of national identifies after the Cold War in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia.

The Taliban and the Crisis of Afghanistan - Edited by Robert D. Crews and Amin Tarzi, an extensive of history and examination of the US role throughout it.

After the Taliban: Nation-Building in Afghanistan - by James F. Dobbins, the former American ambassador pontificates the good and the bad of the US’s role in the country.

All of these books were published within the last two years and should not be hard to find. Any comments about any specific book would be welcomed.

Last Wednesday, a couple perpetrators used water guns to shoot acid at a group of girls headed to school in Kandahar, Afghanistan. Details about this despicable act are still rather muddy, with the number of perpetrators and victims still unclear after reading several reports. The New York Times report has the number of victims reaching about half a dozen girls and a teacher at the school and quotes a provincial governor stating that arrests were made. In any case, at least two girls were severely burned and may be blinded.

“We were on the way to school when two men on motorbikes stopped next to us. One of them threw acid on my sister’s face. I tried to help her, and then they threw acid on me, too,” Latefa, 16

“These cowardly acts reflect how dishonorable the insurgents truly are,” Gen. David McKiernan said. “No one can honestly say they are fighting for the people, then purposefully attack innocent women and children.”

The most tragic part of the story was the sight of the school the next day….it was empty. The perpetrators, allegedly members of the Taliban, but no group claimed responsibility, no doubt intended to intimidate the city’s girls from going to school, and it appears to have worked, at least in the short-term. Instead of highlighting the disgusting actions of the despicable perpetrators of this act, I want to end by mentioning the courage of Afghanistan’s teachers, school administrators, parents, and young female students who have to brave mortal danger in order to attend school each day. Their daily efforts are an inspiration.

Here is a CNN video featuring some of victims and a reaction by First Lady Laura Bush:

Embedded video from CNN Video

From Russia with Hate

Sadly, innocents were also violently attacked in Moscow in similarly brazen actions. During Russia’s National Day of Honor parade in the country’s capital in early November a large group of xenophobic thugs stabbed to death an Uzbek and Turkmen national and targeted the Turkmenistan embassy, injuring a staff member.

The government banned a planned rally on the same day by a neo-nazi, immigrant-hating group, but things still obviously got out of hand. Back in May I wrote about the growing violence toward immigrants from Central Asia by white Russians and the lack of protection being provided by the Russian government. Though at the time it seemed that the state was making moves against such unlawful, violent behavior, including higher rates of arrests, but it appears much more needs to be done.

(Photo Source: CNN)

Who’s an economics expert? Who knows how to solve the world’s current financial crisis? Was that Kazakhstan on the ‘Amazing Race‘? Answers: Not me, probably no one, and yes, Nick and Starr are unbeatable!

With the leaders of most of the world’s economies attending an international summit to try and combat the current economic downturn and create systems which will hopefully make future worldwide recession less likely, it is more than appropriate to discuss Central Asia’s financial predicament. Last week, I discussed measures Kazakhstan was taking in order to stabilize its economy, and how if successful it would hopefully bring this attribute to the whole region, but what about the other states? How are Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan performing economically? What are their financial prospects in the near future? What policies and actions should be taken?

First off, positive news, as the latest IMF Regional Outlook for the region sees higher rates of growth compared to the rest of the globe. The report’s director had this quite bright assessment of both the Middle Eastern and Central Asian regions:

“{They} continue to experience strong growth in 2008, outpacing global growth for the ninth year in a row. Growth is underpinned by high commodity prices, strong domestic demand, and also credibility of the authorities’ economic policies. So far, the Middle East and Central Asia region has been largely resilient to the ongoing international credit crisis and the downturn in the US and other advanced economies. However, inflation has emerged as a key issue in the region, and is well above the average of all developing and emerging market countries.”
And now before I start talking about money matters that are better left to experts, here are some nice pieces covering the current crisis:

The Economist: ‘After the Boom: Central Asia and the Credit Crisis‘

Eurasia.net: Central Asia: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan Confront a Financial Disaster

And a couple more covering just Kazakhstan (it was on Amazing Race after all)

Eurasia.net: Kazakhstan: Astana Working Out Details on Economic Stabilization Plan

Lastly, the Asian Development Bank announced that it is providing Kazakhstan with a $700 million dollar loan to improve remnants of the old Silk Road and to promote trade with Europe.

While I hope these short reports helped us all get a better look of how the world wide economic downturn is effecting Central Asia.  This will definitely be a story worth following as it truly touches the lives of everyone involved. I’ll leave you with this ‘Amazing Race’ photo, you can see Almaty, Kazakhstan in the background if you look really hard.

With the Taliban showing no signs of retreat and with a new US administration entering office it is an appropriate time for all involved to ponder a NATO retreat from Afghanistan.

During the presidential debates and speeches, Afghanistan was discussed, but the issue of whether or not the US presence was either helping or exacerbating the conflict was not. Obama and McCain both were in agreement that the US should bring more troops to the nation, not less, in the belief that the situation needed more boots on the ground to police the nation and keep the Taliban in check. But are the current contingent of Western forces doing more to defeat the Taliban/Al Qaeda or to incite them to keep fighting on?

International Relations Professor Stephen Walt and Princeton Professor Anne-Marie Slaughter debate this issue. Here is the five minute video. To simply put their arguments, Slaughter is against leaving Afghanistan,asserting that it would give the Taliban/Al Qaeda a ‘major victory,’ while Walt is for withdrawal, arguing that our troop presence is only making the situation worse in what is looking like an ‘endless war.’ Walt persuasively demonstrates that the region of Afghanistan is not all that significant to US interests, being so far away and having such a small economy. This is no surprise as he is a leader of the IR realist school.

What Walt seems to be too quickly dismissing is the ideological nature and mission of many of the US’s enemies in the region and their proven ability to hurt US interests throughout the world. In fact, the CIA just came out with a report concluding that Al Qaeda was increasing its reach around the globe, specifically in Africa.

This debate between Slaughter and Walt is short and doesn’t not cover a multitude of issues as deeply as they deserve, but its an important start nonetheless. I have discussed this issue numerous times, but still feel the mainstream media is not covering it enough. I have also let it be known that I myself feel that the US/NATO effort in Afghanistan is worth the time, life, and treasure, but that we need to continually evaluate our strategy and build, build, build up the Afghan government, police, and military. But whatever my beliefs, it is vital that all of us have a greater understanding of the incredibly harsh conflict that we are in and who it is we are fighting for and against.

The financial crisis that began in the United States has made its presence felt around the globe and Central Asia is no exception. How is Central Asia’s greatest economic power, Kazakhstan, handling this economic crisis and how is the economic downturn effecting the stability, security, and development of the region. These were the main topics of a conference between many regional experts in Astana last month called “New Challenges and Kazakhstan’s Contribution to Stability and Security.”

Muriel Mirak-Weissbach, a scholar of the region’s economic and strategic outlook attended the conference and not only summarizes the major issues and policies discussed, but also provides a historical perspective of past economic crisis’s in Kazakhstan. Here is an excerpt of what Nurbakh Rustemov, the keynote speaker and Chairman of the hosting parliamentary committee, had to say of the economic downturn and its consequences:

“He bluntly stated that the world financial crisis was leading to a “misunderstanding” among geopolitical forces, and carried the danger of a direct threat to humanity, through hunger and poverty.(1) He called for uniting forces internationally, to overcome the financial-economic crisis, which he dubbed the “number one priority.” Rustemov mentioned the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, of which Kazakhstan is a founding member, as well as the OSCE, which Kazakhstan will chair beginning 2010, as bodies his government would like to utilize to find solutions to the crisis. Two concrete means that his country could use to impact the crisis, would be in securing energy resources, and providing grain and meat exports to alleviate food shortages.”

Rustemov is correct in stating that this economic crisis may lead to following and connected geopolitical disruptions and he’s also right in arguing that regional and multilateral groups, such as the SCO and OSCE, will be crucial in helping the world get through this mess in one stable piece. Another important aspect of his comments is the positive role Kazakhstan can play in impacting the crisis in a productive way and that is in securing energy resources and in providing food stuffs to alleviate shortages in other countries, specifically in harder hit CA states, such as Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan.

Kazakhstan’s abundance of energy supplies, combined with President Nazarbayev’s prudent planning, have left the nation in good condition despite the tough times. Nazarbayev announced last month that the government would spend $2 billion to stimulate the economy, mainly targeting banks and the construction industry, funds drawn from the nation’s oil fund. Unfortunately, not all CA or world states have an oil fund to fall back on.

What the whole of Central Asia can hope for is sturdy economic stewardship by its regional leader, Kazakhstan, and help from regional bodies, both from the East and West to weather what will most likely be a lengthy recession. During this time, it will be vital to keep the region from falling into disrepair as poverty and extremism would both be on the rise and this may lead to conflict. The US, Russia, China, and the EU all have roles to play in mitigating negative ramifications of this crisis in the region, but a strong and active Kazakhstan is crucial. As Muriel Mirak-Weissbach concludes:

“Kazakhstan has become the foremost interlocutor in Central Asia, not only for Eurasian giants Russia and China, but also for the two major economies of western Europe, Germany and France. If the current world crisis can be overcome through participation of major Eurasian nations, Kazakhstan can become the linchpin in the region for stability and security.”

In addition, the US State Department announced a nuclear safety cooperation with Kazakhstan. Read Below.

The United States and the Republic of Kazakhstan reached a new milestone in a multiyear joint project to irreversibly decommission the Soviet-era BN-350 fast breeder reactor located at the Kazakhstani port of Aktau on the Caspian Sea. The participating governments completed a sodium processing facility that will be used to dispose of coolant from the reactor core. This action demonstrates and reinforces the strength of the U.S.-Kazakhstani strategic relationship, and our joint commitment to preventing the proliferation of nuclear materials.