Has NATO been Shanghai’d?
Lately there has been much talk on this blog and the FPA site about NATO and its role in Afghanistan, and rightly so, but it has just been simply too long since I have talked about the ‘other’ regional alliance with influence in Central Asia, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The Asia Times wrote a short analytical piece updating the groups actions and prospects and arguing that the SCO is growing in strength and influence while NATO is becoming weak and irrelevant.
The articles analysis of SCO’s motives, mainly curbing the US/NATO encroachments in CA, anti-missile system and expansion in Eastern Europe, and ‘unilateralism’ are mainly spot on, but the author’s judgements of the groups capabilities, and NATO’s lack there of, are largely mistaken. It is true that the SCO has brought Russia and China closer together, but the possibility that the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which contains many CA states, may merge, as the author suggests, is very unlikely. As I have argued before, suspicions and competition between Russia and China just run to high. The author’s other major claim, NATO in trouble, can also be challenged on many fronts. NATO is struggling in its first 21st century war, but just the fact that is fighting a battle outside of its European homeland suggests an alliance with tremendous capabilities and reach. NATO’s fight for Afghanistan’s current government and against the Taliban insurgency has had setbacks, as evidenced by today’s tragic suicide bombing in front of India’s embassy in Kabul, but its members do seem committed to the mission. On the other hand, it is nearly impossible to imagine the SCO or the CSTO organizing and performing such a campaign. The SCO’s potential is great, this is true, but we must keep our analyses grounded and not up in the heavens.
Kazakhstan/Regional Transportation
Recently we discussed a new railway, funded by the World Bank, that would stretch from Kazakhstan’s eastern border with China all the way to Europe. In addition to this, Pakistan, China, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan have signed a Quadrilateral Transit Agreement on building up the Karakuram Highway, an alternative route through CA starting from China. Secondly, new bounded warehouses and an intermodal container terminal in Kazakhstan’s China border will be built to connect rail freight between China and Europe. The Soyuztranslink hub will be in the town of Khorgos and is due to be completed in 2010. Clearly China’s economic power and its influence in Central Asia and Europe can be visually seen by these infrastructure projects.
Lastly, Happy Belated Birthday America
July 8th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
I understand the remarks of SCO might being factually not deployable. Quite so. China does not want SCO to become a military organization as CSTO is. Still SCO retains a certain credibility. Military drills are held on yearly basis, and sport air-born attacks, sea blockades and infantry war as anti-terrorist operations. Commitment is shared not only by China and Russia, but also from the other “-stan” countries with a lesser army but no lesser ambitions. SCO has effectively pacified a huge area and is opening it now to trade (resources in exchange for goods), enabling the energizing of India and China. As to now, SCO experience and contacts enable Russia to give strategical help to US garrisons in Afghanistan, as more and more countries want to join the club. Observers span from Iran to India, Pakistan, Mongolia and Turkmenistan.
It is a rather effective and gifted creature, but not democratic.
My personal thumbs-up to the Blog.
Leonardo