Afghanistan and Central Asia

A few days ago we discussed newly minted Russian President, Dmitri Medvedev’s first foreign visit to Kazakhstan, but equally if not more important to the CA region and the world at large is where he went next, China.  He met with Chinese President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao in a visit that was both strategic and symbolic as it comes in great contrast to Putin’s first overseas visit in 2000 to the West’s heart of London.  The strength or weakness of China/Russia’s relationship will have great influence in Central Asia, for the US, and for the entire world.

Strategically: During the visit the Beijing/Moscow signed a $1 billion dollar nuclear agreement for Russia to build a nuclear fuel enrichment plant in China and supply the nation with uranium. The meeting also gave the two another chance to denounce the US/EU missile defense plan in eastern Europe, Kosovo’s independence, and the West’s policy of exporting their values of human rights and democratic rule (which we have discussed many times).  In a joint statement Hu and Medvedev stated that governments should ‘oppose politicizing the issue and using double standards’ and should not use ‘human rights to interfere with other countries’ affairs.’  This is clearly a direct challenge to recent calls by Western government and civil society groups for CA authoritative leaders and governments to open up their society’s and provide their people with individual liberties.  This goes at the heart of the argument that the West’s policy of promoting democracy and human rights along with their strategic interests is being challenged by the Chinese/Russian model which asks few questions about a state’s internal make-up when doing geopolitical/economic business.

Russia and China have many aligned interests at the moment and their current relationship is rather strong, which this first visit proves.  They have performed several military exercises and called for a multi-polar world within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. They have also stayed behind each other’s view that the Iranian nuclear issue should not be taken on that aggressively by the US/West.  But the two regional great powers have divergent interests, especially in Central Asia, and these will most likely keep the duo from forming anything concrete to challenge the US/West in the world or push them entirely out of CA.  In fact, Medvedev’s first stop in Astana, Kazakhstan was most likely a sign to China that Moscow considers the region still its main sphere of influence, especially regarding energy rights.  China has made many inroads into the region, an oil pipeline with Kazakhstan and a gas agreement with Turkmenistan, and its ‘quiet expansion’ worries Russia.  China has tremendous financial reserves and has proven it is willingly to pretty much outspend anyone when it comes to energy deals.  Concerning energy deals between the two behemoths themselves, an oil pipeline from Siberia to China proper has been on hold for years, as the two sides still are arguing over oil prices.   Another contentious issue between the two nations is the dramatic inflow of Chinese migrants into Russia’s eastern lands, changing the nation’s dramatically.  Lastly, despite their many efforts to forge a tight relationship to combat the US/West, each side’s economy is affirmatively directed towards and dependent on the US, especially China’s.  The two nations bilateral trade has been rising lately, but as of last year it was still less than eight times that of Chinese/US trade.

Do you think Russia/China are forming a close geopolitically strategic relationship?  Is it directed toward anyone in particular?  How does their relationship affect their policies in Central Asia?  Is a close relationship between the two regional powers good or bad for the CA’s nations?

Here are some articles that can give you a deeper analysis and picture of Russia/China’s partnership or lack there of.

1. Rumer, Eugene B., “China, Russia and the Balance of Power in Central Asia,” Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University, 2006.

2. Yu Bin, “China-Russian Relations: Partying and Posturing for Power, Petro, and Prestige..,” Comparative Connections, 2007.

3. Garnett, Sherman, “Challenges of the Sino-Russian Strategic Partnership,” The Washington Quarterly, Autumn 2001.

4. Cohen, Ariel, Tkacik, John J., “Sino-Russian Military Maneuvers: A Threat to U.S. Interests in Eurasia,” Backgrounder, The Heritage Foundation, No. 1883, September 30, 2005.

5. Blank, Stephen, “Can Anyone Save this Marriage: Russo-Chinese Energy Relations,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace¸ May 25, 2006.

(Photo; New York Times)

Here in the United States, the world’s largest and in many ways most dynamic economy, everyday we open the morning papers lately just to see one more sign that our economy is in trouble; credit crisis, stimulus packages, unemployment, gas/oil prices, food prices, a movie in New York City costs $12.00! America is not alone as the nations of Central Asia face an even more dire situation. Even though some of their governments are reaping the rewards of ever-climbing energy prices, all are suffering from a weak world economy, less foreign investment in areas beyond energy, a harsh winter, and rising inflation, especially in regards to food. Here are two stories that showcase the difficult times for the region’s citizens.

A. Locust Invasion- Moroccan locusts have flown into the region from Afghanistan all the way to Kazakhstan and are making an already tenuous food situation much worse. Locusts affect crops in the region every year, but this year is worse than usual and when combined with a harsh winter that took a toll on farm and livestock productive and already high food prices, the region’s poor will most likely suffer even more. This insect invasion also portrays a region largely without the resources to combat such an occurrence, as most of the CA states cannot afford pesticides which could curb some of the locusts damage.

Infestation Statistics (estimated)

Tajikistan - 220,000 hectares of farmland

Kyrgyzstan - 50,000 hectares

Kazakhstan - 200,000 hectares

Uzbekistan - no reported damage

Afghanistan/Iran - damage, but level unknown

B. Education=No Job?!

Farangis Najibullah reports for Radio Free Europe on the region’s failure to provide adequate employment/careers for its college graduates.  The story starts with the story of Mirodil, an Uzbek who graduated from high school and immediately became a migrant worker in Kazakhstan because of the lack of opportunity in his home province Andijon.  Najibullah reports that though many CA states have built or opened universities recently, the number of high school graduates enrolling in them has dropped every year.  For instance, in Uzbek’s Samargand Province, only 12% of their high school grads applied to university.  The main impediment for this is the fact that many college graduates in the region fail to find professional employment in their respected fields and a sufficient salary to go along with it.  Therefore, citizens are choosing not to pay the exam fees (corrupt bribes) and spend years in the classroom, and instead are finding construction, farming, and market jobs in comparatively wealthy Russia or Kazakhstan.  It is easier said than done, but these states need to find jobs for these educated citizens.

On May 22, new Russian President Dmitri Medvedev made his first foreign diplomatic visit of his term to Astana, Kazakhstan. This gesture shows to the Astana’s government, China, US, and the world that Russia sees great importance in its relations with this CA/CIS power, but also the region as a whole. Medvedev stated; “Astana did not become the first foreign capital that I have visited as president of Russia by chance. The main thing is that Russia values the genuinely friendly and mutually-advantageous relations with Kazakhstan, our strategic partner.” Kazak President Nazarbayev went even further, calling the two nations bilateral links tighter than those of any other two states on earth.

So what was accomplished during this meeting between such good buddies? They signed a joint declaration designating the Commonwealth of Independent States as the main forum for cooperation, with Medvedev stating that the strengthening of the CIS was a major Russian priority. However, the joint declaration did not specify much else regarding energy or security measures, though there were major rumors that a new gas deal was to be signed doubling the capacity of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. The two nations energy relationship may be a bit strained at the moment considering that just a few weeks before Kazak government ratified a deal to export oil through the Western-backed Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. Concerning economic deals, the two sides agreed to draw up a new economic cooperation blueprint to replace the existing one and Medvedev stated ‘We speak one economic language.’ However, Kazak’s deal with BTC proves that Kazak has other ideas when it comes to energy. Even so, this visit means much regarding the two’s close relationship and though both sides will never get exactly what they want, Russia complete CA domination, and Kazak a freer voice in its energy and security dealings, much can be gained from closer ties.

Another important aspect about this visit is what it means to the other CA states, specifically Kazak’s rival for regional powerhouse, Uzbekistan. It was just eight years ago, when a newly appointed Russian president named Vladimir Putin decided to visit Tashkent as his first official foreign venture. Radio Free Europe published a piece arguing that Medvedev’s trip to Astana instead signifies a changing of the guard of sorts, as Kazak’s rising economic and strategic power currently outweighs Uzbekistan’s. The article asserts that Astana’s President Nazabayev is more stable and predictable leader who never left Russia’s side in any major dispute, while painting a picture of Uzbek’s Karimov as being less stable and more willing to court the West and to a large degree this is true. As Kazak’s new BTC deal exemplifies, Nazarbayev can have a flexible and multi-centered foreign policy and relations, but he has used greater nuance and kept Russia satisfied throughout his nearly 20 year run, well on the other hand Uzbek’s Karimov has had at times strained relations with its former sovereign.

What does Russia’s visit to Kazakhstan mean to Central Asia as a whole? What does it mean for Kazakhstan? Russia? Uzbekistan? Medvedev visited Beijing and met with President Hu for two straight days right after his trip to Astana. What does this mean to/for the CA?

With an International Donor’s Conference being held in Paris next week on Afghanistan’s behalf, increasing pressure is being put on President Karzai’s ability to run the still unstable nation’s government. The donor’s aid is expected to target the sector’s of agriculture, energy, security and education, but a number of them are demanding that the conference also be used for a critical review of the government’s performance, in particular its failure to curb rampant corruption. The New York Times has reported that several world diplomats feel that Karzai is not doing enough to heed corruption, standing down to warlords controlling the nation’s narcotics trade, and simply not providing an effective governance as many of these donor nations are losing lives and spending billions. The fact that Karzai is up for reelection this year does not seem to be helping the situation as his campaign stance, has at times contradicted the desires of foreign donors and US/NATO policy.

The Bush administration has been a strong backer of Karzai and this continues to be true as First Lady Laura Bush visited the nation for the third time and backed Karzai’s government by publicly meeting with him and voicing the conference donor’s to give the nation what it needs. As on her two previous visits to Afghanistan, Mrs. Bush emphasized her support for women’s development and educational and training projects. She flew to Bamian, one of the country’s poorest provinces, which is overseen by Afghanistan’s only female governor, Habiba Sarabi, a former minister of women’s affairs. Mrs. Bush also met with several students and teachers.

In a connected story, the US State Department is promoting the success of the US-Afghan Women’s Council, which was created in 2002. The purpose of the Council is stated;

The Council promotes public-private partnerships between U.S. and Afghan institutions and mobilizes private sector resources to help Afghan women. Specifically, the Council seeks to identify concrete actions to bring real and practical benefits to the women of Afghanistan and to enable them to participate and take leadership roles in the political and economic life of their country. To this end, the Council focuses on four areas: political leadership and legal awareness, economic empowerment, education, and health. In 2006, it added a special children’s initiative, Ayenda. The Council alternates regular meetings between Kabul and Washington, DC to discuss programs and priorities for assisting Afghan women and to review progress. Under Secretary of State for Democracy and Global Affairs Paula Dobriansky co-chairs the Council with the Afghan Foreign Minister and the Afghan Minister of Women’s Affairs.

The recent report acknowledges the Council’s work in education (Women’s Teacher Training Institute, American University in Kabul, Women’s Resource Centers), Media (PBS Afghanistan Unveiled), and other education and Health initiatives and programs.

Afghanistan’s future as a free, stable, and democratic government is still deeply in doubt, as Karzai’s weakness and international donor weariness signify, but progress has been made that cannot be ignored. In a nation, where women were not even allowed to go near a school and a place where very few children were also given a decent education, progress has been made. In another position, I have done extensive terrorism research in Afghanistan and constantly reported on attacks on educational and women’s targets in the nation since the Taliban were ousted in 2001. These attacks only strengthen my resolve that these programs like the Women’s Council are vitally important to not only each individual Afghan child and women, but to the nation’s future as a whole.

Here is a Friday Link Laydown of hopefully some informative and interesting items:

A. Iranian President Ahmadinejad recent visit to India is analyzed with a geopolitical mindset by MK Bhadrakumar, a former Indian diplomat. India and Iran’s postures and interests in Central Asia are discussed, as is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Bhadrakumar gives a fresh Indian perspective of Central Asia, Iran, and the SCO and is quite critical of US foreign policy.

B. Kazakhstan’s vice minister of foreign affairs Nurlan Ermekbayev just had talks with the US State Department and National Security Council in Washington DC. Deepening bilateral cooperation and enforcing global and regional security were apparently hot topics of discussion. My apologies for the tiny size of the report.

C. Yet another report about declining press freedom in the world. The World Association of Newspapers (WAN) reports in their half-year review that 28 journalists have been killed so far and that corrupt and autocratic governments putting press freedom under ’serious threat.’ Central Asia is mentioned multiple times and it’s not good news.

D. Here, and right here, are a couple articles about South Korea’s diplomatic and strategic efforts to court CA states. Prime Minister Han Seung-soo and the South Koreans mainly seek energy supplies for their nation, which must be remembered has Asia’s third largest economy.

E-Z. China and five CA states summited their first national lists of Silk Road treasures/artifacts in a joint application to World Cultural Heritage. China nominated 48 sites, Kazak 10, Kyrg 7, Tajik 8, Turkmenistan 57, and Uzbek 33.

Have a great weekend!

Good morning friends, today I would just like to give an update on upcoming or recently passed regional conferences and cooperation in the CA.

1. The 6th Annual Almaty Conference “Central Asia: State and Prospects of Regional Cooperation” will be hosted in surprise, Almaty, Kazakhstan on June 11. The conference is organized by the Ebert Fund and First Kazakh President’s Fund and will be attended by both regional experts from many analytical centers in Kazakhstan, other CA states, Europe, Russia, and China and diplomatic mission representatives from many of these states. All that was stated was that a ‘wide range of issues’ about the ’state and prospects’ of CA regional cooperation planned to be discussed.

2. Currently, Almaty is also hosting a subregional seminar on environmental impact assessment for CA and Azerbaijan from June 3-5. Representatives of environmental protection departments, international and social organizations, mass media will participate in the event. The CA region has many pressing environmental concerns at the moment from hydroelectric power supply to locust invasions.

3. Tashkent, Uzbekistan hosted an international conference on “Security and stability in Central Asia in the Context of Political and Economic Modernization” from May 29-30. The government of Uzbekistan along with many European organizations hosted and put on the event which focused on stability, security, and socioeconomic issues in Afghanistan and the region as a whole. Uzbek President Karimov appeared to be the star of the show and discussed his plan’s on making Afghanistan a more stable and functioning state.

4. Lastly, Tajik President Rahmon and Kazak Head of State Nazarbayev, during a recent diplomatic visit, voiced their approval (with Kyrgyzstan also backing) of forming a Central Asian Union. We have discussed this possibility before and the fact that it faces many hurdles, especially Uzbekistan’s outright refusal and a wary Russia as well. Still, Kazakhstan desires more influence in this region to match its growing economic power and leading a CA regional cooperation grouping would certainly help it achieve this goal.

Here’s a story, in fact really a series of events, in which I have not heard much about. The governments of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and even resource-poor Tajikistan have led many ‘urban renewal’ projects in their respective capitals and major cities. This makes sense in many ways as most of these states are receiving large profits from energy deals and desire to update their out of style, possibly dilapidated, Soviet buildings and infrastructure, but they apparently are going about this process in the way they do nearly everything, without the consent of their own people.

In all of these states, Farangis Najibullah reports that their renovation projects have unfairly and without due process removed thousands from their homes, pushing many of them into the homes of relatives, sharing small flats, and even into homelessness. The governments desire to create fancy apartment buildings and office space and to make room they need these people out of the way. Some offer financial or land compensation, but in most cases it is not enough.

In fact in Dushanbe, Tajikistan displaced residents must prove they are below the official poverty line to receive compensation, unfortunately the poverty line for a family is less than $6 a month! It goes without saying that virtually no Tajiks receive this reimbursement. Also in Dushanbe, residents who lose their home are entitled to a piece of land, but the land is part of a desert wasteland outside of the city and they are given no money or construction materials in which they could actually build a house. These people can not turn to their government for help, and must rely on family and friends for shelter.

Last April, two protests were held against the government by those who had lost their homes. In one case a group of women were arrested, let go, and told never to protest again. Apparently, there was a protest that turned violent in Almaty, Kazakhstan two years ago against the demolition of housing and that several Almaty residents have gone on hunger strikes to draw publicity to their plight, but Najibullah reports they were ‘ignored by city officials.’

Cities and capitols should modernize and improved infrastructure is a positive thing, but the way these authoritarian CA leaders go about it is the ’same old song and dance’ with their citizens. The citizens of these nations need a voice, a place to go to have their feelings and opinions heard, and these governments fail to provide this and this is a tragedy.

Comments: If you have comments/opinions/questions please post them or email me. I will do my best to get your comments posted or questions answered as soon as possible. Thanks.

As can be easily found in my article discussing India’s growing influence and interest in Central Asia, they are not alone. Those of you who check this blog often, know that it features many pieces analyzing great power relations involving Central Asia. Although the ‘Great Game’ designation has been way overplayed, it is true that the region is today as important a sphere for great powers as any other time in history. This being the case, I feel that I have neglected to discuss China’s interests in the region, and especially in Afghanistan, to a sufficient degree, and I have found a more than serviceable analytical piece as a jump off point.

Asia Times’ Tariq Mahmud Ashraf has written an informative article, that though lays itself out as a piece about China’s interests in Afghanistan, is largely centered around its relations with Pakistan. Ashraf begins by discussing the Great Game’s changing dynamics (more powers, energy supplies) and frames the geopolitical environment into two blocs: US/NATO versus China/SCO (This time its geopolitical!). He then goes on to emphasize the well covered Chinese interests in CA and Afghanistan; Energy supplies and routes, stability, removal of US/NATO forces-influence, checking India’s presence (he even asserts that China may be trying to pincer India on all corners), curbing terrorist/separatist elements, etc.

Gwadar Port, Pakistan
Most of these have been discussed on this page and in a myriad of other places, but Ashraf is well-informed on Pakistan’s importance to China’s foreign policy and strategy (though I believe he overemphasizes it just a tad) When listing China’s interests in Afghanistan, he constantly moves the discussion towards Pakistan. For example; “Afghanistan’s significance for China is also due to the latter’s imperative of ensuring Pakistan’s security.” China and Pakistan have had a long and indeed fruitful partnership, but I wish the article centered a bit more on Afghanistan/China relations.

However, Ashraf’s knowledge and analysis of China/Pakistan/Afghanistan/CA relations and interests has much value for the reader. He provocatively lays out the possibilities and implications of the opening of a Gwadar port in Pakistan’s south by China. The port would provide China much sought after military, economic, and strategic access to the Indian Ocean and would give it proximity to the petroleum sea routes of the Middle East. Of course for this port to truly be effective and useful railway and road links would need to be created that would spread from Pakistan-Afghanistan-Central Asia all the way to China’s western province of Xinjiang. This connects to another major aspect of Ashraf’s piece which discusses a Trade and Energy Corridor between Pakistan and China.

In a topic more focused on Afghanistan itself, Ashraf posits that China is preparing for a post-NATO Afghanistan, though he admits that this could be a ways away, by increasing trade and other links with the currently unstable state. He calls it China’s ‘policy of patience’ and this has been a trait that the Chinese government has mastered through the years, led by Deng Xiaoping’s leadership. Ashraf does not offer much concrete evidence of this behind the scenes diplomacy, he does mention growing Sino-Afghan trade which reached $317 million in 2005-6, but China’s got deep pockets and has shown a penchant for using its purse to buy influence in several regions of the world and very much so in Central Asia. However, when and how the US/NATO forces will leave Afghanistan is a huge question mark and even more important, what will a post-NATO Afghanistan look like? In fact, I believe China would rather have US/NATO forces in the nation than have it become a center of instability poisoning the whole region.

So, though this was not a picture perfect analysis of China’s growing interests and influence in Afghanistan/CA it provided some valuable information and some thought-provoking questions.

On this blog, we have discussed India’s increasing economic and strategic presence in Central Asia. The reasons for this are many, as are the implications for the region. I have written a short piece describing and analyzing this geopolitical occurrence for the Foreign Policy Association that you can find on its homepage. Here is the intro:

As India’s political and financial powers grow, the nation will attempt to use its newfound leverage to spread and defend its interests regionally and worldwide. This changing policy can be witnessed by India’s recent diplomatic and strategic movements in Central Asia. In the past few years, the Indian government has increased its contacts with the region’s leaders, become an observer to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), set up its very first military base in a foreign nation, Tajikistan, and signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Turkmenistan regarding major gas procurements. India’s growing interest in Central Asia and the prospects and challenges for its present and future engagement in the region will be an intriguing geopolitical event to watch. Also of interest is what the Central Asian states have to gain in such a relationship and what India’s growing regional influence means to U.S. interests and policy in the region.
Let me know what you think?