Tajik Instability
Tajikistan, already one of the world’s poorest nations, has suffered much this year with a harsh winter, continuing health concerns, and with rising food prices. But the worse could be yet to come as its President Rahmon’s rule appears to be showing some cracks and news reports about the country have titles such as ‘Who’s in Charge’ and ‘Tajikistan is not in control.’ Not that President Rahmon has gone out of his way to help his people or been at least an ‘organized’ autocrat, but the violent battle for power or overthrow of his rule could send the nation into greater chaos.
Two reports exemplify Rahmon’s weakening power; the strange disappearance of Khasan Sadulloyev, one of the nation’s most powerful business men and the President’s brother-in-law, and the government led attack on the Langariyevs’ household, who had fought ’side by side’ with Rahmon against the Islamic opposition during Tajik’s civil war in the 1990s. These instances seem to portray a government on its heels, trying to eliminate ‘enemies’ and possible power challengers. Eurasianet.org calls the Sadulloyev incident a sign of presidential ‘dysfunction’ and a leader who does not have control over his own power circle. The article references the fall of Kyrg’s President Askar Akayev in 2005 as a possible outcome for the Tajik leader.
In other, more positive Tajik news, Kazakhstan’s government has pledged to help build and finance Tajik’s much needed and sought after Rogun Dam project and Rahmon has stated that an ‘international consortium‘ would also help the impoverished nation get the dam operating within 4 1/2 years. The dam would provide much needed electricity for the nation and the region as well.
Tajik’s Foreign Minister Khamrokhon Zarifi met with US Undersecretary of State for South and Central Asian George A. Krol on June 16 and discussed a ‘broad spectrum’ of issues concerning US-Tajik relations and agreed that the 4th meeting of the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) would ‘become another major step towards development of regional trade and economic cooperation.’ TIFA is between the US-CA states and promotes the expansion of trade and investments in the region through the involvement of customs procedures in international standards. US soft power one might say.
July 2nd, 2008 at 3:19 am
[…] Patrick Frost says that Tajikistan, already one of the world’s poorest nations, has suffered much this year with a harsh winter, continuing health concerns, and with rising food prices. Posted by Adil Nurmakov Share This […]
July 10th, 2008 at 8:17 am
[…] On the contrary, the Central Asian states of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and to a lesser extent Kyrgyzstan all have a political process that is far from fair and is constantly manipulated by the powers that be. A few weeks ago I discussed Tajik’s political/governmental problems and this included the mysterious disappearance of Hasan Sadulloev, President Rahmon’s brother-in-law and powerful businessman. It appears Sadulloev had presidential ambitions and this led to his strange vanishing. […]
August 27th, 2008 at 8:41 am
[…] 2. Political Instability - Though less visible, says Linn, the deteriorating economic situation and quality of public services are causing the nation’s citizenry to question Rakhmon and his political elites ability to govern effectively. Though he rightly believes, that an uprising or ‘color’ revolution, as was the case in Kyrgyzstan, is far from happening, a more likely outcome would be an internal battle between political elites for control of the state, which we have discussed here. Either way, instability would ensue creating a myriad of problems to this already poor nation. […]