China’s Multi-Dimensional Afghanistan Outlook
As can be easily found in my article discussing India’s growing influence and interest in Central Asia, they are not alone. Those of you who check this blog often, know that it features many pieces analyzing great power relations involving Central Asia. Although the ‘Great Game’ designation has been way overplayed, it is true that the region is today as important a sphere for great powers as any other time in history. This being the case, I feel that I have neglected to discuss China’s interests in the region, and especially in Afghanistan, to a sufficient degree, and I have found a more than serviceable analytical piece as a jump off point.
Asia Times’ Tariq Mahmud Ashraf has written an informative article, that though lays itself out as a piece about China’s interests in Afghanistan, is largely centered around its relations with Pakistan. Ashraf begins by discussing the Great Game’s changing dynamics (more powers, energy supplies) and frames the geopolitical environment into two blocs: US/NATO versus China/SCO (This time its geopolitical!). He then goes on to emphasize the well covered Chinese interests in CA and Afghanistan; Energy supplies and routes, stability, removal of US/NATO forces-influence, checking India’s presence (he even asserts that China may be trying to pincer India on all corners), curbing terrorist/separatist elements, etc.
Gwadar Port, Pakistan
Most of these have been discussed on this page and in a myriad of other places, but Ashraf is well-informed on Pakistan’s importance to China’s foreign policy and strategy (though I believe he overemphasizes it just a tad) When listing China’s interests in Afghanistan, he constantly moves the discussion towards Pakistan. For example; “Afghanistan’s significance for China is also due to the latter’s imperative of ensuring Pakistan’s security.” China and Pakistan have had a long and indeed fruitful partnership, but I wish the article centered a bit more on Afghanistan/China relations.
However, Ashraf’s knowledge and analysis of China/Pakistan/Afghanistan/CA relations and interests has much value for the reader. He provocatively lays out the possibilities and implications of the opening of a Gwadar port in Pakistan’s south by China. The port would provide China much sought after military, economic, and strategic access to the Indian Ocean and would give it proximity to the petroleum sea routes of the Middle East. Of course for this port to truly be effective and useful railway and road links would need to be created that would spread from Pakistan-Afghanistan-Central Asia all the way to China’s western province of Xinjiang. This connects to another major aspect of Ashraf’s piece which discusses a Trade and Energy Corridor between Pakistan and China.
In a topic more focused on Afghanistan itself, Ashraf posits that China is preparing for a post-NATO Afghanistan, though he admits that this could be a ways away, by increasing trade and other links with the currently unstable state. He calls it China’s ‘policy of patience’ and this has been a trait that the Chinese government has mastered through the years, led by Deng Xiaoping’s leadership. Ashraf does not offer much concrete evidence of this behind the scenes diplomacy, he does mention growing Sino-Afghan trade which reached $317 million in 2005-6, but China’s got deep pockets and has shown a penchant for using its purse to buy influence in several regions of the world and very much so in Central Asia. However, when and how the US/NATO forces will leave Afghanistan is a huge question mark and even more important, what will a post-NATO Afghanistan look like? In fact, I believe China would rather have US/NATO forces in the nation than have it become a center of instability poisoning the whole region.
So, though this was not a picture perfect analysis of China’s growing interests and influence in Afghanistan/CA it provided some valuable information and some thought-provoking questions.