Afghanistan and Central Asia

Just as I opine about a growing autocratic threat to the world liberal system I want to introduce a report by the Brookings Institution analyzing weak states, many of which consist of authoritative leadership. Of course yesterday’s discussion centered on the Great Powers of China and Russia who do not fair prominently on this list, though Russia actually made it in at 65 (the lower the number the weaker the state) which was ahead of both Kyrgyzstan (73) and Kazakhstan (89). Here is the actual report and a summary.

Nathan at Registan.net’s Central Asia News — All Central Asia, All The Time discussed this report a couple weeks ago and highlighted the fact that two of CA’s most oppressive dictatorships, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, faired the worst, ranked 35, 36 respectively. Nathan summarizes the reports stated weakness’s of such regimes as their continuous reshuffling of government officials and that both of these governments pursue foreign policies that mainly only increase the executive power of the state and not the state as a whole.

Nathan finishes his analysis by making the pertinent point that these dictators, Karimov and Berdymukhammedov, feel very insecure and that foreign nation’s policies toward these unstable leaders must take this into account in diplomatic dealings. It would be easy for these leaders to lean in a direction where they feel more secure, and as China and Russia have shown, they are more than willing to forgive these leaders’ transgressions as long as they keep their nation stable and accept their economic and security influence. The West’s task with these types of states is tremendously difficult; they want to help them become more liberal/democratic, share in their economic and strategic resources (such as oil and bases), and have their governments lean in their direction, all at the same time. Attaining all these goals is mammoth endeavor and has shown to be a continual forward and back struggle.

How much influence should a country’s type of leadership affect a state’s (US) policy towards them? Do you agree with the Brookings Report rankings? Do you think that Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, and Russia for that matter, have weak governments?

On a related note, I have discussed Turkmenistan’s recent movements away from Niyazov’s totalitarian regime and the New York Times has jumped in on the discussion. In the article, Professor Eric McGlinchey correctly cautions optimism regarding these changes, warning that the current President, Mr. Berdymukhammedov may be using these transformative polices just to consolidate his own rule in the nation.

Robert Kagan, a neoconservative policy analyst and one of presidential candidate John McCain’s foreign policy advisors, has a new book warning that the West and its present leading liberal international system has a legitimate challenger in authoritarian Great Powers Russia and China and their alternative political system. Read a brief excerpt of ‘The Return of History and the End of Dreams’ here. Kagan’s analysis of the present, and his predicted future international system and conflicts has much relevance for the Central Asian states because beyond their control they will be battle grounds in this clash of systems, beliefs, and powers.

Kagan may be labeled a neoconservative, but his analysis is largely based on Realist principles. He focuses on state vs. state conflicts and believes that each state largely acts regarding its national interests. What Kagan brings to the table in this new book is his analysis of Russia and China’s abilitiy to change the international system in ‘profound ways.’ He does not believe the world is heading back to an ideological confrontation, i.e. the Cold War, but argues that this is a ‘new era,’ where there are growing tensions and possible confrontations between the forces of liberal democracy and those of autocracy. It is true that most people look at China and Russia as just simple, realist states that just follow their national interests and care for little else, but Kagan asserts that they indeed do have beliefs; they believe that states and societies need order and stability to prosper and that strong authoritative governments can provide this better than democracies.

Kagan discusses how these autocracies’ view the West’s liberal international system and their continual changing of international law and challenges to state sovereignty as just an excuse for these Western states to further their own interests. For instance, China, Russia, and the other authoritative leaders in CA considered Kyrgyzstan’s 2005 Tulip Revolution an attack on their region’s and personal security. This West-backed inflitration was an affront to their stability and to Kagan these autocracies are finding ways to fight back.

Even though the West/US has a strong hold on the international system, these autocrats still carry much sway in the world’s order and in Central Asia, especially with China’s dramatic rise in power and Russia’s resurgence. These autocratic powers are dangerous because they provide other authoritative states and leaders protection and an alternative model of development and this is especially true of China and Russia’s influence in CA. In many ways Russia and China help these despotic nations by battling the West’s system of international law, which has featured elements that challenge sovereignty in favor of universal human rights. As one Chinese official stated right after Tiananmen Square in 1989; ‘What right does the US government have to….flagrantly interfere in China’s internal affairs.’ This statement has relevance to many people and societies throughout the world.

Kagan is correct, the End of History is not upon us and though the Western world’s liberal/democratic system prevailed in the Cold War and still rules over most of the planet, it is indeed facing a potent and capable challenger in these strong, growing autocratic state systems.

And in case you’re not worried enough, here is another related article arguing that the world is getting more and more militaristic as nations battle for resources and power.

Sleep well.

A while back we discussed an upcoming major AIDS conference in Moscow, well the event has arrived and it comes with some positive news. It was the largest Eastern Europe/Central Asia conference ever held and lasted for three days. Around 2,000 participants from over 50 nations took part to assess regional achievements, share results and best practices, examine the epidemic’s recent feminization, and determine how to meet this epidemic’s challenge to their region. The official theme of the conference was ‘Accelerating Access to HIV Prevention, Treatment and Care for All,’ and was hosted by entities from the UN, the Global Fund to Fight Aids, Tuberculosis, and Malaria, the International AIDS Society, and a Russian government sponsored organization.

Both regions were said to be at a ‘critical turning point’ in this fight and the UNAIDS Executive Director Peter Piot optimistically noted that the region’s governments, civil societies and communities were displaying indications of ‘enhanced leadership and cooperation’ on this issue. However, he lamented that discrimination and a negative stigma still resonates in both regions, keeping HIV prevention projects from making real progress. Overall there was good news which showcased that prevention efforts have made an impact; the estimated number of new HIV infections dropped from 230,000 in 2001 to 150,000 in 2007.

A report by the Times of Central Asia included a terse examination of HIV/AIDS in Tajikistan with an emphasis on the fore-mentioned stigma and discrimination that have been associated with the disease. They present a much darker picture of the epidemic’s spread and of a culture and society that has largely turned its back on its victims. They cite recent government data, which indicates that the disease has been on the rise in the country every year since 2001. The Times states that the nation is ’struggling’ to cope’ with the spread HIV/AIDS because of poor medical services and ‘conservative moral attitudes which encourage shame and secrecy.’ We can only hope that the recent conference can bring some effective policies to Tajikistan and help them deal with this challenging and deadly disease.

I want to leave on a more positive note, so here is a story about how the Global Fund to Fight AIDS is considering providing loans, to replace grants, to nations moving above their required income-level such as Russia, Kazakhstan, and Turkey. Kazakhstan’s rising economy will push them above the income-level to receive grants, but Michel Kazatchkine, the fund’s director, cites the nation as an example of a country which can still benefit from a loan and extended help. This sounds like good policy since many of these nations still only have incipient HIV prevention structures and civil society’s which may perish or fall into disrepair without continual aid and oversight by such a group as the Global Fund.

Richard Boucher, Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asia gave his ‘The Year Ahead in South and Central Asia‘ news conference a little late this year. Boucher spoke on many topics, which I will break down below, and overall he stated that there’s a ‘new sense of momentum and a new sense of energy’ in both regions. Afghanistan stability was by far the main topic concerning our blog, but he also touched on Kazakhstan’s rising influence, Uzbek’s Termez base, SCO engagement, and a Central Asian Union.

1. Afghanistan- Boucher would reiterate again and again that the Afghan government was taking a lead in more and more of security and governance tasks and that this was the most important sign of progress. There was also strong emphasis on extending the capabilities and reach of the central government out to the local districts. Boucher stated that the chief indicator of stability would be the Afghan government’s ability to ‘deliver opportunity, to deliver justice, to deliver governance and services to the people of Afghan.’

Also in regards to Afghanistan, Boucher stated that the latest NATO summit in Bucharest affirmed the international community’s strong long-term commitment to the effort. Boucher applauded the appointment of Kai Eide as the new Special Rep for the UN Secretary General for Afghanistan. A quick discussion of the regional impact of Afghan’s instability, and therefore stability, was having on Central and South Asia occurred. The nation was called ‘vital’ to the CA states for ‘good’ and for ‘bad.’ He discussed the nation being a ’strategic opportunity’ and a transit point for all of its nearby states (as we discussed earlier, India and Pakistan would use Afghan territory to transport gas and oil from CA) and emphasized the importance of building a network of roads between CA and the nation, for example the Almaty-to-Karachi highway.

2. Kazakhstan- Boucher stated that he recently visited Kazakhstan and talked with their officials about developing public-private partnerships, expanding economic ties, and helping them carry out their commitments as they prepare for the OSCE chairmanship in 2010. He stated that President Nazarbayev has called for entering on the ‘path to Europe,’ which would involve modernization and the standardization of laws and society.

3. Shanghai Cooperation Organization- In answering a reporter from Hong Kong’s question, Boucher stated that the US is not ‘pursuing any particular form of cooperation’ with the SCO, but that it had proved ‘very useful’ in its role in some economic, border, and transit issues. However, Boucher criticized the group for interfering in political areas and for its negative pronouncements about other countries ‘like us.’ Boucher was asked what he thought of Iran as a future member of the SCO, but he did not answer the question.

4. Uzbekistan’s Termez Base- Boucher verified that there had been an accepted provision allowing certain ISAF and NATO officials and non-lethal goods to transit through the base, but that no US aircraft were ‘coming through.’ He stated that only something like 30 Americans, under NATO command, transited through the base last year. I have noticed that all US officials in the region, Pamela Spratlen, have been extremely cautious in explaining that Termez is not a US-controlled base. Treading lightly in Central Asia.

5. Central Asian Union- Boucher briefly voiced his support for CA regional cooperation, especially in regards to trade and transit, but was careful to layout that this was a problem/situation to be handled by internal member states, not ’some outsider like me or anybody else.’

What did you get out of Boucher’s statements? What he said, and what he didn’t say? Is your picture of Afghanistan and the region as rosy as his?

No matter how advanced our human civilization becomes, creating and then depending on such things as the Internet and cell phones, life for all humans still comes down to one thing, WATER. Central Asia’s historically harsh winter this past year has put tremendous strains on all parts of life in the region, from households to each state’s own presidential palace have felt its effects. Water is vital to each nation and person because it is the main provider for not only the agricultural industry, but also of electricity.

This recent story personifies the extent of CA’s water problems: Due to the unusually cold winter and the increased use of electricity, largely powered by hydroelectric sources, the government of Tajikistan is ‘requesting’ that all the residents of the nation, one of poorest in the region, give up half of their salaries in May and June to help fund the Rogun dam. This effort would still only put $10 million into a project that is estimated to cost at least $550 million.

The CA region has been a disorganized and its nation’s have failed to unite to solve this region-wide problem ever since the USSR broke down and each of these states came into existence. Joanna Lillis clearly describes the ramifications of the recent difficult winter and how it has caused a new emphasis in the region on getting their water, irrigation system right. She discusses how each CA nation is really only looking out for themselves and how this is causing all to suffer, especially the poorest in each country.

As was discussed earlier on this page, the presidents of Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan made efforts to create a Central Asian Union, which would include a water and energy consortium, a couple weeks ago, but Uzbekistan’s President Karimov quickly put a stop to this idea in his recent visit to Astana; “I want to state right away that this initiative is unacceptable for Uzbekistan.” Uzbekistan, the region’s largest consumer of water, seems to be playing regional power politics with Kazakhstan’s attempt at leading a regional forum, but this does not help in anyway the vital water issues of the region.

Moves have been made however to start to alleviate some of these issues; Kazakhstan will very soon begin its Koksaray reservoir, which will help it contain some of the flooding from water being released from its neighbors, and Kazakhstan’s government and large company Kazkuat, may help pay for Kyrgyzstan’s Kambarta project, which includes two power plants that would cost $2 billion

Kazakhstan is showing their increasing power and political sway in the region by trying to sure up its water and energy needs. These moves are to secure the country the energy and water it needs to help fuel its rising economy, but they should have positive effects throughout the region.

What would truly help solve these water issues would be a regional consortium, for many waterways traverse through all CA nations and what one does affects all others. Lillis advocates using the Eurasian Economic Community as a forum for cooperation, though it does not have Turkmenistan as a member. She discusses a blueprint that is already in place by the EAEC which proposes finding a suitable fuel and energy balance for all countries, attracts financing for Kyrg’s Kambarata project, restoring Soviet principles of irrigation for downstream states (Kazak, Uzbek, Turkmenistan), joint investment in power plants (very important), removing barriers to electricity companies and the creating of a common market between all member states.

This issue is not going away and short-term bilateral deals are only just band-aids on a cracking dam. This is a regional problem and needs a regional solution, but this is easier said than done of course. For instance, US states are still fighting over water as Colorado, Arizona, and California all desperately need the Colorado River’s vital flows. The EU and Germany have stepped up and tried to assist CA authorities on this issue and the US has also done some work, mainly regarding aid, but more needs to be done. If the US could help the region organize (difficult task) or help certain states fund their much needed hydroelectric dams (possible) much good will and the alleviation of suffering should follow.

For all you lucky readers I have a present…Press Conference reports from US State Department officials about ongoing relations with Central Asia! Calm down please.

Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary, Pamela Spratlen (Photo, left) recently made diplomatic visits to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan and in each destination held a press conference.

In Bishkek, she participated in what was called the second Comprehensive Policy Dialogue with Foreign Minister Ednan Karabayev and introduced the Millennium Challenge Corporation Threshold program. Kyrgyzstan, which is the first country in CA to be selected to participate, will receive $16 million dollars to help them reform their judicial, law enforcement, and criminal justice sectors. Spratlen also voiced her disapproval of the Kyrg government’s recent handling of the December 2007 elections, which it still has failed to release the results of, during the press conference. Spratlen also answered questions regarding recent local protests against the US use of the Manas base in the country.

In Dushanbe, Spratlen discussed her meetings with Tajik government officials, civil society, NGOs, and members of the business community and stressed that the questions that were of ’special interest’ to her were regarding development of democratic institutions and civil society, and about economic recovery and growth, specifically concerning the effects of the recently passed harsh winter. A discussion of the security situation in Afghanistan along with questions pertaining to the US use of Uzbekistan’s Termez airbase (she reiterated that ‘it’s not our airbase. It won’t be our airbase.’ Just that ‘our citizens can use it.’) were highlights of the press conference. Lastly, a reporter from the BBC asked her about the recent controversy over Tajik government’s falsification of its finances to the IMF. She answered that the US and the international community were ‘very concerned’ and had ‘lost some of its confidence’ that the Tajik government fully understood all of its responsibilities to the IMF and the needs of its people.

Just over a week ago, Richard Boucher, Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asia (Spratlen’s boss), held a press briefing titled ‘The Year Ahead in South and Central Asia.’ I have actually not had time to read it all the way over so I will hold my comments until next week, but here is a short review of his statements (to no one’s surprise it appears that Afghanistan was a major topic of discussion, but also Indian energy relations in the CA too).

Have a great weekend!

(Photo Source: US State Department Website)

On April 21st I discussed Turkmenistan-EU’s growing energy supply relations, specifically in regards to the building of the Nabucco and Trans-Caspian Pipelines, and yesterday I dropped you a quick article about a recent Memo of Understanding (MoU) between Turkmenistan and India regarding oil and gas cooperation. I have been wanting to discuss India’s growing role in Central Asia for quite awhile now and the visit of their Vice President Hamid Ansari to the region last week provides a great opening.

It was during this visit that the MoU was signed between Turkmenistan and India. The agreement paves the way for Indian energy companies, such as OSGC, OVL, GAIL, AND IOC, to participate in the hydrocarbon sector in Turkmenistan. During these talks, the long delayed Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India Gas Pipeline Project (TAPI) was also featured and this Radio Free Europe article believes that the project is gaining strength. This project is far from becoming a reality, but it has one major benefit and that is it would provide the struggling Afghan government some much needed transit fees. However, one of the project’s main obstacles is the lack of security in southern Afghanistan due to the current insurgency. Overall it was a productive visit and Ansari left Turkmenistan with these words; “India considers Turkmenistan an extended neighbor, a natural ally and a key partner in Central Asia.”

India’s Vice President Ansari followed up his visit to Ashgabat with a trip to Kazakhstan, where he met with Prime Minister Massimov and President Nazarbayev. The two sides also signed a MoU, though one that seems less substantial, ‘expressing readiness to work on a project specific mode in the hydrocarbon sector.’ Food production, Information Technology, and education were also emphasized in their discussions.

One of major issues standing in the way of greater relations between India and the CA states is a lack of efficient transportation capabilities; roads, railways..etc. However, the Indian Press has reported that an International North-South Transport Corridor linking CA with India will soon be developed. Indian Union Minister for Extenal Affairs Pranab Mukherjee happily stated; “The absence of direct surface transportation routes has been a major handicap in furthering economic and trade ties between India and Central Asia. The recent steps taken by Kazakhastan, Turkmenistan and Russia to increase road and rail connectivity may help in the development of the corridor.” Of course, just like the TAPI, this has been in the works for years so it’s still a ‘wait and see.’

In my brief discussion of recent activity in relations between India and Central Asia, it is obvious that energy supplies are a crucial component of their current and budding relations (Ah ha! here is an article about a Cultural Dialogue between the two), but each side has much else to gain by deepening their connections. For India, not only does their rising economy need energy (Pun Warning!) to fuel its drive to world power status (2.5 billion barrels of oil consumed a day), but it also has much incentive in growing overall trade relations and maintaining a stable environment in the CA. India is surrounded by unstable or authoritative states and if it can cultivate positive and effective relations with its immediate northern neighbors, all the better. For CA, the positives to a relationship of India are obvious; another market to diversify their energy supplies, a strong nation that can help them balance Chinese, Russian, and US pressure, help in progressing their economies beyond just energy supplies (IT sector?), and greater amounts of foreign investment. India is also the only democratic state close enough and strong enough to have some influence in the region and hopefully through time this can have a positive effect.

I will promise to keep you abreast of this ongoing, shall we say dynamic, relationship. Can you think of any more positives for each side? What about negatives? How do you think Russia, China, and even the US view this burgeoning relationship? Should the US work with India in CA to curtail the influence of Russia and China? Is this even feasible?