Liquid Platinum
No matter how advanced our human civilization becomes, creating and then depending on such things as the Internet and cell phones, life for all humans still comes down to one thing, WATER. Central Asia’s historically harsh winter this past year has put tremendous strains on all parts of life in the region, from households to each state’s own presidential palace have felt its effects. Water is vital to each nation and person because it is the main provider for not only the agricultural industry, but also of electricity.
This recent story personifies the extent of CA’s water problems: Due to the unusually cold winter and the increased use of electricity, largely powered by hydroelectric sources, the government of Tajikistan is ‘requesting’ that all the residents of the nation, one of poorest in the region, give up half of their salaries in May and June to help fund the Rogun dam. This effort would still only put $10 million into a project that is estimated to cost at least $550 million.
The CA region has been a disorganized and its nation’s have failed to unite to solve this region-wide problem ever since the USSR broke down and each of these states came into existence. Joanna Lillis clearly describes the ramifications of the recent difficult winter and how it has caused a new emphasis in the region on getting their water, irrigation system right. She discusses how each CA nation is really only looking out for themselves and how this is causing all to suffer, especially the poorest in each country.
As was discussed earlier on this page, the presidents of Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan made efforts to create a Central Asian Union, which would include a water and energy consortium, a couple weeks ago, but Uzbekistan’s President Karimov quickly put a stop to this idea in his recent visit to Astana; “I want to state right away that this initiative is unacceptable for Uzbekistan.” Uzbekistan, the region’s largest consumer of water, seems to be playing regional power politics with Kazakhstan’s attempt at leading a regional forum, but this does not help in anyway the vital water issues of the region.
Moves have been made however to start to alleviate some of these issues; Kazakhstan will very soon begin its Koksaray reservoir, which will help it contain some of the flooding from water being released from its neighbors, and Kazakhstan’s government and large company Kazkuat, may help pay for Kyrgyzstan’s Kambarta project, which includes two power plants that would cost $2 billion
Kazakhstan is showing their increasing power and political sway in the region by trying to sure up its water and energy needs. These moves are to secure the country the energy and water it needs to help fuel its rising economy, but they should have positive effects throughout the region.
What would truly help solve these water issues would be a regional consortium, for many waterways traverse through all CA nations and what one does affects all others. Lillis advocates using the Eurasian Economic Community as a forum for cooperation, though it does not have Turkmenistan as a member. She discusses a blueprint that is already in place by the EAEC which proposes finding a suitable fuel and energy balance for all countries, attracts financing for Kyrg’s Kambarata project, restoring Soviet principles of irrigation for downstream states (Kazak, Uzbek, Turkmenistan), joint investment in power plants (very important), removing barriers to electricity companies and the creating of a common market between all member states.
This issue is not going away and short-term bilateral deals are only just band-aids on a cracking dam. This is a regional problem and needs a regional solution, but this is easier said than done of course. For instance, US states are still fighting over water as Colorado, Arizona, and California all desperately need the Colorado River’s vital flows. The EU and Germany have stepped up and tried to assist CA authorities on this issue and the US has also done some work, mainly regarding aid, but more needs to be done. If the US could help the region organize (difficult task) or help certain states fund their much needed hydroelectric dams (possible) much good will and the alleviation of suffering should follow.
May 5th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
Great coverage, Bonnie!
The hydropower issue has been in the economic forefront of Tajikistan for quite a while. The government of Tajikistan has been actively seeking funding for its power projects. So far only Sangtuda-I and Sangtuda-II projects have been realized (through Iranian and Russian funding).
Bigger projects (such as Roghun) are still left on the table because of lack of creditworthy demand. Talks are underway (between WB, Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Pakistan) to construct an transmission line from Tajikistan to Pakistan, which needs electricity badly and is willing to pay for it. The problem is that the line would have to cross through Afghanistan to get to Pakistan. This decreases the reliability of power supply (given unstable security situation in Afghanistan).
So all in all we have a situation whereby the generating country (in this case TJ) wants to get paid for the electricity dispatched from its generating plants while the purchaser (in this case Pakistan) wants to pay only for electricity that actually got delivered to Pakistan. The logic dictates that it is in transiting country’s best interest to ensure the security of the line, but the fledging government in Afghanistan may not be able to provide full financial and military backing for possible downside scenarios. Therefore IFIs and the US government should play a role here.
If the transmission line is built, Tajikistan would have a good market for its excess electricity. Once the problem of market is solved, I am sure money will flow easily to finance other hydropower projects because the economics (apart from Afghanistan’s security risk) are far too attractive to be ignored.
May 5th, 2008 at 7:16 pm
Appologies to Patrick Frost. I did not know the blog had yet another writer.