On April 21st I discussed Turkmenistan-EU's growing energy supply relations, specifically in regards to the building of the Nabucco and Trans-Caspian Pipelines, and yesterday I dropped you a quick article about a recent Memo of Understanding (MoU) between Turkmenistan and India regarding oil and gas cooperation. I have been wanting to discuss India's growing role in Central Asia for quite awhile now and the visit of their Vice President Hamid Ansari to the region last week provides a great opening.

It was during this visit that the MoU was signed between Turkmenistan and India. The agreement paves the way for Indian energy companies, such as OSGC, OVL, GAIL, AND IOC, to participate in the hydrocarbon sector in Turkmenistan. During these talks, the long delayed Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India Gas Pipeline Project (TAPI) was also featured and this Radio Free Europe article believes that the project is gaining strength. This project is far from becoming a reality, but it has one major benefit and that is it would provide the struggling Afghan government some much needed transit fees. However, one of the project's main obstacles is the lack of security in southern Afghanistan due to the current insurgency. Overall it was a productive visit and Ansari left Turkmenistan with these words; “India considers Turkmenistan an extended neighbor, a natural ally and a key partner in Central Asia.”

India's Vice President Ansari followed up his visit to Ashgabat with a trip to Kazakhstan, where he met with Prime Minister Massimov and President Nazarbayev. The two sides also signed a MoU, though one that seems less substantial, ‘expressing readiness to work on a project specific mode in the hydrocarbon sector.’ Food production, Information Technology, and education were also emphasized in their discussions.

One of major issues standing in the way of greater relations between India and the CA states is a lack of efficient transportation capabilities; roads, railways..etc. However, the Indian Press has reported that an International North-South Transport Corridor linking CA with India will soon be developed. Indian Union Minister for Extenal Affairs Pranab Mukherjee happily stated; “The absence of direct surface transportation routes has been a major handicap in furthering economic and trade ties between India and Central Asia. The recent steps taken by Kazakhastan, Turkmenistan and Russia to increase road and rail connectivity may help in the development of the corridor.” Of course, just like the TAPI, this has been in the works for years so it's still a ‘wait and see.’

In my brief discussion of recent activity in relations between India and Central Asia, it is obvious that energy supplies are a crucial component of their current and budding relations (Ah ha! here is an article about a Cultural Dialogue between the two), but each side has much else to gain by deepening their connections. For India, not only does their rising economy need energy (Pun Warning!) to fuel its drive to world power status (2.5 billion barrels of oil consumed a day), but it also has much incentive in growing overall trade relations and maintaining a stable environment in the CA. India is surrounded by unstable or authoritative states and if it can cultivate positive and effective relations with its immediate northern neighbors, all the better. For CA, the positives to a relationship of India are obvious; another market to diversify their energy supplies, a strong nation that can help them balance Chinese, Russian, and US pressure, help in progressing their economies beyond just energy supplies (IT sector?), and greater amounts of foreign investment. India is also the only democratic state close enough and strong enough to have some influence in the region and hopefully through time this can have a positive effect.

I will promise to keep you abreast of this ongoing, shall we say dynamic, relationship. Can you think of any more positives for each side? What about negatives? How do you think Russia, China, and even the US view this burgeoning relationship? Should the US work with India in CA to curtail the influence of Russia and China? Is this even feasible?