Afghanistan and Central Asia

The American Commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan, Gen. Dan K. McNeill, gave an optimistic appraisal of Afghanistan’s stability on Sunday, stating that the Afghan army and police forces should be able to secure most of the country by 2011. McNeill argued that Afghan forces have done an effective job managing security for Kabul, although he stated with NATO support, and expressed confidence that the country could handle the presidential elections set for September 2009. According to McNeill, the insurgents ‘did not have a very good year last year’ and predicts that ‘toe-to-toe’ fights will probably be less common. However, he admits that the insurgent techniques of choice, IEDs and suicide bombing (which will be discussed tomorrow), is still a concern. He also acknowledged the veracity of reports stating an increase in foreign fighters arriving into Pakistan’s tribal areas which border Afghanistan.

Also of interest, Gen. McNeill asserted that ‘the long-term stability of Afghanistan depends on the good will and help of all its neighbors, not just Pakistan. All neighbors have to be helpful, and there are quite a few neighbors around here.’ One of those neighbors McNeill is no doubt referencing is Uzbekistan, and as has been reported on this blog, there has indeed been cooperative progress made. Here is President Karimov just over a week ago: “I would like to state that Uzbekistan stands ready to discuss and sign with NATO an agreement on providing for a corridor and transit through its territory to deliver non-military cargos through the border junction Termez-Khayraton.. In Uzbekistan we distinctly realize that achievement of peace and stability in Afghanistan would be a decisive factor of security which opens up big opportunities…”

On a more somber note, Richard Weitz, who I have referenced before, attended a briefing by counterinsurgency specialists Bruce Hoffman and Seth Jones titled “America’s Counterinsurgency Conundrum: Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Quest for Stability.” Jones and Hoffman reported their findings from their experiences with the US 82nd Airborne Division in four Afghan provinces bordering Pakistan. The two specialists argue that the US military has improved its counterinsurgency methods of late, but that much more needs to be done to defeat the Taliban and bring stability to the region. Hoffman laments of the lack of resources given to the US effort by its government, arguing that way too much is being spent on Iraq. Both specialists argued for the international community to see this Islamic insurgency in Afghanistan and Pakistan as an ‘integrated whole.’ In other words, one is directly connected to the other and for success to be reached progress needs to occur on both sides of the border. Lastly, Hoffman calls this battle America’s ‘most acute foreign policy challenge.’

Quickly, a diplomatic visit by Krygyzstan’s President Bakiev to Kazakhstan this past week has been called a ’success’ by the head of Krygyzstan’s Head of Presidential Administration Medet Sadyrkulov. Kazakhstan President Nazarbaev assured Bakiev that a recently anounced ban on wheat exports would not apply to his country, the two sides discussed the possibilities of Kazakhstan financing a second gas pipeline through Kyrg territory, an agreement between the two states to hold a CA joint economic forum in Kazakhstan in 2009, which would focus on better distributing regional energy and water supplies among all five CA states, and lastly they discussed formulating a common CA plan for dealing with the Europe.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, April 22nd, 2008 at 11:15 am and is filed under Uncategorized, Blogroll, Foreign Policy Association, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Central Asia General, Afghanistan, Central Asia Newsroom, Economy, Security, Collective Security Organizations, Other FPA Blogs, Foreign Policy Blogs. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.