Turkmenistan: EU relations-Piping Hot?
On April 11, I reported on the EU Troika-Central Asian summit held in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan. The post and most media outlets focused on energy relations and human rights issues between the EU representatives and all of the CA leaders present. It was reported that during the summit there was talk of a growing relationship between the EU and specific CA states (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) regarding energy supply and diversification, but my conclusion and others’ held out little hope of any real progress on this issue.
However, new reports suggest that EU-Turkmenistan energy cooperation may be making significant progress with an agreement to supply gas to Europe through the Nabucco and Trans-Caspian Pipelines. In interviews with the high EU representatives at the Summit, Slovenian Foreign Minister Dimitrij Rupel, EU Special Representative for Central Asia Pierre Morel, EU External Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner and French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, ‘signs of germination’ were expressed concerning closer energy relations.
When asked whether there had been any progress in Bilateral and Multilateral meetings concerning the Nabucco and Trans-Caspian pipelines Kouchner stated; “Yes, there is certainly some hope. The president [Turkmen’s Berdymukhammedov] has decided to furnish Europe, and of course France, with gas.”
EU External Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner more bluntly and confidently stated that an official Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was agreed upon with Ashgabat; “We have already signed MoU with Kazakhstan. We are signing MoU with Turkmenistan soon; we have finalized the negotiations. We would now also be ready to enter into dialogue to see all the options with energy with Uzbekistan.”
Now, nothing has become official yet, and there is much more that needs to be accomplished and sorted out before one can say that the EU-CA (Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan) have a formal energy-supply relations that largely exclude Russian influence and territory. There is the issue of exactly how the pipeline will run geographically to its end point in Austria and beyond; Turkey would need to be on board and appeased, and the issue of using Iranian territory still seems like a non-starter. Dimitrij Rupel, Slovenian foreign minister and head of the EU external relations council asserted; “No, the EU at the moment doesn’t have any substantial engagement plans with Iran.”
Stephan Blank, an excellent scholar on CA/Russian energy relations, will be given a voice about this EU-CA energy cooperation on this site in the next few days.
Additionally, when this EU Troika-CA Summit was originally held there was much said about how the EU would promote democracy and human rights in the region and how this would affect negotiations over other matters, such as energy policy. Here is an article summing up the Human Rights Watch’s demands/recommendations for the EU in their talks with each CA state, and here’s a list HRW’s reports on CA human rights’ issues.
April 22nd, 2008 at 1:04 am
[…] Patrick Frost analyzes the developments in European policies towards Turkmenistan after the EU Troika-Central Asian summit held in Ashgabat. Posted by Adil Nurmakov Share This […]
April 22nd, 2008 at 1:04 am
[…] Patrick Frost analyzes the developments in European policies towards Turkmenistan after the EU Troika-Central Asian summit held in Ashgabat. Posted by Adil Nurmakov Share This […]
April 30th, 2008 at 8:32 am
[…] We have discussed Turkmenistan’s ‘opening up’ diplomatically from their isolationist and totalitarian Niyazov era on a few occasions. The nation’s participation in the latest NATO Summit, EU Troika, and their warming of relations with Turkey, for instance. I am pleased to report that this ‘opening up’ seems to have some legs: […]
May 1st, 2008 at 1:20 pm
[…] On April 21st I discussed Turkmenistan-EU’s growing energy supply relations, specifically in regards to the building of the Nabucco and Trans-Caspian Pipelines, and yesterday I dropped you a quick article about a recent Memo of Understanding (MoU) between Turkmenistan and India regarding oil and gas cooperation. I have been wanting to discuss India’s growing role in Central Asia for quite awhile now and the visit of their Vice President Hamid Ansari to the region last week provides a great opening. […]
May 18th, 2008 at 10:36 pm
[…] To offer some sweet relief for your Monday blues, here’s some Central Asian geopolitical analytical madness! A couple of weeks ago we discussed the EU’s attempts at diversifying CA gas exports to circumvent Russian territory and influence, mainly in Turkmenistan. In addition, on this blog we have talked about China and India’s growing role in the region, once again usually centered on natural resources. The geopolitics surrounding CA’s ‘Great Game’ have been analyzed for decades, but I must admit the stories and actors involved remain vibrant and the debate about who’s winning and losing rages on. […]
August 11th, 2008 at 7:32 am
[…] Cutler calls the project’s a ’slow start,’ but one that has shown potential and should have mutual benefits. The results have been ‘modest’ in his eyes as steps have been made, but it is too early to see any real change/progress involving relations between the two regions and concrete development on the ground. Cutler is correct in noting that the EU has made major attempts to diplomatically and strategically engage Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, but is also correct in noting that nothing concrete has come from their talks so far. Though he fails to mention that in April of this year, an EU delegation to Turkmenistan seemed to come close to a gas deal, circumventing Russia with the Trans-Caspian pipeline, though nothing has become official as of yet. Cutler gives the EU credit for pushing a degree of democratization in Kazakhstan, using their leverage concerning Nazarbayev’s 2010 OSCE presidency. However, this influence is difficult to truly measure. Concerning Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the former has been given poverty reduction to support 100,000 people in the southern part of the country and in the latter, the EU has pledged to help alleviate Tajik’s border patrol and drug trafficking problems, especially on its Afghan border. In the end, Cutler is right in warning against the ‘Strategy’ becoming too disjointed, piecemeal, with individual policies spread throughout, and also acknowledges the EU’s difficult task of trying to garner influence in a region already beset by great powers Russia, China, and the US. […]