Afghanistan and Central Asia

In some ways, it’s always better to think in terms of interlocking regions rather than states–and with Central Asia as a nexus of interlocked regions, it’s most important.  Right now, Pakistan is –depending on one’s point of view–in more upheaval, or– determined to clamp down on upheaval for once and all.  For Central Asia watchers, the question goes past Pakistan alone, into the implications for Afghanistan-and for Central Asia in general.

Brief timeline:
September 10, 2007: Nawaz Sharif, a previous Pakistan President, returns to Pakistan to get ready for elections.  He is deported back to Saudi Arabia due to corruption charges against him in Pakistan.  This makes no sense to me, but there it is.

October 18th, 2007: Benazir Bhutto, another previous Pakistan President, declares she will run for office.  She sort of filled that media gap for the West: a symbol of progress (female president of developing state who interviewed well) but has also not escaped accusations of governmental corruption–and not just in Pakistan, but also in Swiss courts.

October 19, 2007: A rally for Benazir Bhutto’s candidacy is bombed, despite tight security.  One hundred and forty people are killed.  Although some suspect Taliban or MQM, Ms. Bhutto is on record saying that it could also be anti-democratic members of the Pakistan military (Mr. Musharraf is, or was, General Musharraf before the 1999 military coup that overthrew Mr. Sharif).

November 3, 2007: President Musharraf declares martial law. 
1. The Chief Justice Mr. Chaudhry, of the judiciary branch is told his services were not needed.  In the past, Justice Chaudhry has ruled against the government’s position.
2. Ms. Bhutto’s house is surrounded by troops (she was out of the country, but then returned). 
3. A prominent oppositionist and lawyer, Mr. Ahsan is detained, and so is popular sports figure and oppositionist Mr. Khan. 
4. Private TV goes off the air–that’s the end of the free press, in other words. 
5. The Constitution is suspended. 
Mr. Musharraf is doing this to prevent Pakistan from “committing suicide.”  Well, it looks like he killed democratic government in so doing.  But he wasn’t quite done:

November 4, 2007: The round-up and arrest of more than 500 opposition figures was completed today.  BBC and CNN were also taken off the air.  Other party workers for Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Sharif were arrested.  Some figures are also detained in house arrest.

The rumor is that elections, supposed to be held mid-January, will be delayed for almost a year.

Radiating effects:
According to the NYT, there’s 25,000 U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan, and more security problems are inevitable.  Once Mr. Musharraf is done jailing all of the middle class people who are interested in democracy, presumbably there will be a new push in the NorthWest territories to get Islamic extremists with bombs in hand.  Already there will be migratory pressures, as people flee arrest.  Then there will be strategic deployments of Pakistani weapons and troops, marauders and terrorists.  This will create even more unrest and instability on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.

Yes, and then other programs, already dealing with security problems such as the UN’s Aid Mission to Afghanistan, will have more people to look after and less security to do it in.  Likewise, whatever opium, morphine, and heroin interdiction programs are in operation right now in Afghanistan will be harder to implement, which has particular effect in Central Asia–especially Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan.  Also it is a problem for Iran, which tends to disrupt the already fragile social structures on the other side of Afghanistan: the Afghanistan-Iran border.

All you have to do is look at a map to see these problems radiating further: the rest of Central Asia, northern India, the Caspian, the Trans-caucasus. 

Further reading:
Thanks, BBC: English translation of Mr. Musharraf’s November 3 declaration of martial law

This is a somewhat insouciant video, 8 minutes long, put out by Vice DVD, with maybe a little too much hipness for my taste (Can’t believe I’d find something too hip, but there it is).  If you object to casual cursing and the sound of people whooping as they shoot machine guns, then turn down the sound.  It’s really the images that are the most important.  As a look at the security situation in the Northwest Provinces and in the tribal areas, with Afghanistan, et cetera, et cetera, it is very telling. 

And besides the all-important security questions: 
As a political economist, I am knocked back by the persistence of market forces–and the technical capability of the state, which is currently expended on security and could be utilitized on dams, mechanics, new energy grids, and so forth.  And as a philosopher, I can’t help but think about Hobbes’ war of all against all”. 

And this video provides a little food for thought concerning Pakistan’s martial law as well.  I am not in favor of martial law–but I do think we need to think more deeply about democracy and its effect on security–and vice versa.  Clearly the Easy Answer will not work. 

Special thanks to Vice DVD, for bringing the images forward to us all.

Right now, there’s a wealth of events and things to do concerning Central Asia and its partners in the world: and I’m always looking for more, so send them via comment.  Most of the ones I know about are in the U.S. northeast.  If there’s an event elsewhere, on this continent or any other, I would be happy to post it: these electrons travel everywhere.

Photography:
Eurasianet is featuring three beautiful black and white photographs of Afghanistan’s people, taken by David Trilling.  These photos are part of an exhibit at Colombia University’s School of International Affairs.  “Baharistan Journal 2003-2007” will be up through November 5th.  the photos show Afghanistan’s people from the vantage of the street – dignity and vulnerability against a stark landscape.

Music:
On Sunday, November 4, the Freer + Sackler Gallery of the Smithsonian Institution is featuring new music from Chinese composers.  In case you can’t make it to the Sackler, there’s some audio samples here.  Very beautiful, yes?  Settles the soul.

Video Interview:
China’s 17th Party Congress is discussed at a video at the Brookings Institution along with a related briefing, that names the names and explains the significance.

Upcoming briefings and lectures:
For those of you whose Central Asia interest extends across the Caspian and into the Caucasus, several noteworthy events for next week–I’ll be at a bunch of them, but not all– gracious!  It’s not much notice, either, but it gives one a chance to look at various places to continue one’s learning, maybe for some other week.  You can also check these sites afterward for transcripts, videos, and proceedings in the quest for further knowledge.

The Columbia School of International Affairs (SIPA) has an all-day event on Turkey and Islam, somewhere in New York City.  Here is the contact information to RSVP.

The Woodrow Wilson Center will be discussing the U.S. and Russia in Eurasia on Monday, November 5th.  Send in your RSVP today!

The Cato Institute will be discussing Georgia’s Transformation to a Market Economy on Thursday, November 8th.  This is also an RSVP event.

Have a Great Weekend Everybody!  See you around town!

Photo: Encore Studios

Today at the United Nations, Uzbekistan’s Permanent Representative Mr. Alisher Vakhidov warned the international community not to interfere in Uzbekistani affairs under the pretext of human rights concerns.  According the the RFE/RL report, Mr. Vakhidov said that international cooperation must be based upon “equality, mutual respect, social and economic development, and historical and cultural traditions.”

Okay.  I get that: 1. equal rights.  2. mutual respect. 3. social/economic development.  4. historical/cultural traditions.

Equality: This means equal rights under the law.  Mutual respect has to do with the same equality, but with some manners added in–and a sense of mutual, deserved worth.

Judicial Equality:  Defendants are presumed guilty at the beginning of the process, and judicial efforts to transact the case include proving guilt through the means of torture, intimidation, and a closed trial process.  This also has some implications for Mutual Respect.

Informational Equality: The lack of transparency means that citizens are unable to garner reliable information, and are aided by an unfree press which essentially repeats the party line and disallows investigative or oppositionist journalism.  A free press contributes to a free politics, but also to equal opportunity in economic affairs as well.  Again, Mutual Respect: that people in Uzbekistan can make their own political decisions and be trusted to start viable businesses and be in charge of their own economic fate.  Oh, and allowing, and allowing for, transparency and media incursions also has a lot to do with Social and Economic Development.

Social and Economic Development in Uzbekistan has been stymied since before the end of the Soviet Union, which is why it is an independent state today.  Since the command economy is no longer Soviet, and the vestiges of the command economy do not provide the same social guarantees, it would behoove Uzbekistan to attract new business: and it has.  However, significant barriers to prosperity exist: the bribe economy; the excessive permit regime; the propensity of Uzbekistan to expropriate businesses such as Newmont Gold mining and the old automobile plant.  Much of this Human Rights dialogue is aimed at developing Uzbekistan’s draconian legal system into a system that allows Economic development. 

In another sense, the Soviet-style economy can be seen as a Historical and Cultural Tradition.  And in that sense, we must honor some of its achievements: a high literacy rate, jobs, a social services net.  Also, we have to take into account the Soviet experience, which is why international actors such as the World Bank have developed prescriptions for those economies transitioning out of the now-defunct Soviet model.  It is also why states such as the U.S. developed funding programs to aid transition states; why the Council of Europe and the state of Japan, and many others, have made progress in Central Asia a priority.  As far as Mutual Respect goes: most Central Asia analysts feel that Uzbekistan could be a benefit to the region at large–or its greatest destabilizer.

Other Cultural and Historical traditions also prevail.  There is the customs of Islam, which Uzbekistan’s current government does not seem to be too happy about–see judicial torture above, for example–and the Cultural and Historical Traditions of an unfree press, an internal security service, et cetera.

 So, the principles go together, Mr. Vakhidov: you’re quite right about that.  Which is why some of us aren’t backing off anytime soon . . .

Photo: styledetective.com

I regret that I haven’t been writing recently on Afghanistan:  especially since it’s past time to write about trouble that aid workers are having in delivering food and services.  Here are some aid statistics for the last ten months:

– 34 aid workers have been killed. 
– Seventy-six have been abducted. 
–Fifty-five convoys have been attacked, by either Taliban or criminals, six times higher than last year.  The UN World Food Programme has lost 1,000 tonnes of food aid due to these depredations.
–Due to the convoy attacks, six weeks have passed since food has been delivered between Herat and Kandahar.  And in another six weeks, snow will make many of these roads impassable for aid delivery–according to the UN director on the ground, Mr. Corsino, this will mean starvation for 400,000 Afghan citizens.  This would be about 0.8% of the five million people who need some sort of food aid in Afghanistan.

Furthermore, according to Declan Walsh’s article in The Guardian (who reported all of these statistics):

The Afghan education ministry says 400 schools in the south and east are shut because of violence. Taliban fighters have burned down 20 schools in Helmand in the past 15 months.

Further reading:
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon’s Special Representative Mr. Koenigs on Afghanistan’s aid delivery
UNICEF press release on the plight of Afghanistan’s children from the Child Alert: Afghanistan report
UNAMA–UN Aid Mission to Afghanistan Web site

Photo: Luke Powell for the UN