Afghanistan and Central Asia

I’m afraid the Central Asia Beat was beyond my poor capabilities while in Central America.  There just wasn’t good enough Internet access to do the research–and frankly, this “Foust Format” takes hours with a good connection. 

However, it’s worth it: you get a really good sense of what’s going on, yeah?  Hope it’s useful to more than myself out there–here goes:

Kazakhstan: Economic engines are Go:
–According to the European Rubber Journal (oh, yeah, what a great name–but it’s about tires, people) and Forbes,  Finland’s Nokian Tyres will be working with Kazakhstan’s Ordabasy JSC to build a factory in Astana.  The tires will serve the Kazakh and Russian Markets, eventually going into Eastern European distribution. 
–The laws passed by the Kazakhstan legislature concerning subsoil rights–and oilfield expropriation–are a significant threat by themselves to ENI and Kashagan field operations, the BTC line over by Azerbaijan, and so forth.  Yet expropriation legislation is not a good sign for investment by other industries  either.  Looks like Mr. Nazarbaev will not sign the law, which is exactly right–a reminder of state power in the continuing saga of oil in Central Asian diplomacy.
–Germany will sponsor Kazakhstan at the WTO and with the OSCE.  A powerful sponsor doing Europe’s work for it–and probably gaining insights (and investment inroads) thereby.

Kyrgyzstan: You can vote, but . . .
–REFERENDUM Sunday, October 21, on the Kyrgyzstan Constitution.  Lots of wrangling, as Adjar Kurtov’s article at Ferghana.ru notes.  Numerous drafts of dubious constitutions have been written and approved, sometimes amended without due legislative process or transparency.  The people are rightfully confused–even the experts are finding it difficult to keep track–and more so because the draft document’s publication was delayed, making it impossible to give it a proper perusal.  However, Kyrgyz police did impound an issue of independent newspaper Alkak this week.
–In the meantime, to add to the bewilderment, a new political party for Bakiev: the Ak-Jol Party, the party for “workers and men of action”, according to Bakiev.  I guess the “women for action” and the unemployed of both sexes did not line up to be consulted, as the party registration, platform, and membership were fulfilled in one day.  Kyrgyzstani Muslims are also concerned–apparently they were not consulted either.  Separation of church and state are a good idea, but the manner of the referendum will also probably ignite a cultural conflict, again through poor writing and quick-n-dirty work.  The new party and referendum are widely expected to increase Mr. Bakiev’s power over the state, and help him with upcoming elections.  Oh, and the election protocols are still screwed up, so results are easily skewed. 
–Asel writes over at neweurasia.net that despite all of this good referendum news, the PM of Kyrgyzstan has publicly stated that people should not panic.  Uh, that’ll fix it all right.
–Dateline, Bishkek: This past Wednesday, October 17th, Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan signed an agreement on military cooperation, to involve training starting next year.

Mongolia:
–Great news for Mongolia: USD 285 million will be headed for the state under a Millenium Challenge Compact over five years.
–U.S. firm UTStarcom is in trouble with the SEC for attempting to bribe Mongolian officials back in 2005. . .
–Uranium development at Gurvanbulag Field, by a Canada-based transnational Western Prospector. 

Tajikistan:
–The Asian Development Bank and UK’s Department for Int’l Development are co-sponsoring a private sector development strategy grant totalling USD 2 million, from this month for another 3 years.  the grant is designed to help aid Tajikistan simplify and streamline institutional barriers to private business, a move which is Definitely in the right direction. 
–ADB is also funding USD 22 million of a USD 28.5 million flood management project for the Khatlon province in Tajikistan’s Southwest.
–Review of post-conflict reconstruction, ten years after the Tajik Civil War: generally positive, according to Josh Kucera’s report of proceedings.
–Vadim at neweurasia.net has two articles related to Migration this week: the first on Pamiri society, which is dwindling; the second, on beaten-up and framed Tajikistani university students in Russia.  Putting these stories together shows again how important it is for Central Asian labor to migrate for economic opportunity, and just how high the stakes are.   
–Students aren’t in school: they’re picking cotton right now.
–Jehovah’s Witnesses banned throughout Tajikistan.

Turkmenistan:
–The biggest news is the new rapprochement between Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.  RFE/RL has a great backgrounder on this.  As part of the ceremonies, Mr. Karimov has become an “honorary elder” of the Turkmen people.  Tangible results: The Journal of Turkish Weekly has the details of new business/economic deals (which must again underscore Turkey’s role in Central Asian economic affairs) including six new enterprises. . .  a statement of economic cooperation was also signed and a joint communique issued.  turkmenistan.ru reports that Uzbekistan is sending 180 spraying machines and associated spare parts to Turkmenistan.
–UNFPA Director Mr. Haled Filbi comes to visit and will speak to Ministers of medical, education, and foreign affairs, which gives the clue what the UNFPA proposes to do and Turkmenistan proposes to accept. 

Uzbekistan
–See Turkmenistan, above.  President K was also given an Akhalteke horse, one of Turkmenistan’s prized cultural icons.
–Japan is invited to seek Uranium within the state. 
–Nathan Hamm at registan.net notes that the EU has lifted the visa ban on Uzbekistani officials–scooping everyone on this one–go, Nathan! And has something to say about the quality of EU-Uzbekistan sanctions in the first place.  Check it out.

Xinjiang:
–Whoa, China’s Sinopec found a lot of oil in Xinjiang. . .Tahe Oil field has 1 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) according to estimates. 
–Double whoa, China is still calling Xinjiang a hotbed of unrest. . . well, they didn’t say That, they said that agitators from overseas were causing a problem for them in Xinjiang.  Terror specialists and human rights watchers need to continue to take note.

Okay, lots of news as usual. . . what a great region to be interested in!  Have a great weekend!

Diagram: Northwestern.edu
 

Well, it’s been going on for at least three years: a persistent damaging, punitive group of slights by the West to one of its best friends.  This past week it’s gone from insulting to abusive, so it’s really past time to say something.  These are the events:

1. Turkey, continually worried at the conflict pressures on their southern border, is poised to enter Kurdistan/Northern Iraq.

2. Turkey, working on reforms and Europeanization mechanisms, is due for another review of its status on integration with the EU.  Indications appear to be that they will be fobbed off yet again.

3. Turkey, the successor to the Ottoman Empire, has been this week a target of Congressional sanctions for the Armenian genocide. 

I’m going to briefly write on all three of these issues and then tie it in to Western strategic concerns with Central Asia . . .

Iraq/Kurdistan 
Since the beginning of the Iraq War, Turkey has been of immense value to the U.S. in terms of border stability to the North and the supply chain through its military bases.  Unfortunately, “taking the war to the terrorists” has been a huge burden on those terrorists’ neighbors.  For Eastern/Southern Turkey, this burden has been at times fatal and always dangerous.  Some of the terrorists reside in Kurdistan and desire Kurdish separatism. 

These extreme Kurdish separatists envision a Kurdistan which is not completely within Iraq’s old border, but rather also impede into Turkey’s sovereign territory.  The relative stability of Northern Iraq as opposed to say, Baghdad or Basra, is not a sign of absolute stability–in fact, there have been Kurdish PKK and PKK splinter groups that have bombed sites in Turkey.  That “relative stability” gives these extremist elements a “safe haven” to fight their own battles to the North and ignore the battles to the South.  Turkey has the right to safeguard its interests, however inconvenient it may be to the rest of us who are safeguarding our own.  The remarkable part is that Turkey has delayed its own security needs on the request of others, clearly looking for a consensus on the part of all.  But they cannot do so forever.

EU Integration
I don’t have to say much here, because Lord/Christopher Patten over at the International Crisis Group has said most of it: Turkey has been a staunch ally through NATO for years.  Its military government was once the price paid to ensure Soviet deterrence–and now that history, which saved Europe much grief, is being used against them. 

Second, Turkey is important as a distribution avenue for oil and gas: from Russia, Iran, and the Caspian Sea.  Safeguarding that relationship is extremely important. 

Third, Turkey has been indispensible as a go-between between the West and Middle East/North Africa.  the position of go-between is one of those thankless jobs–one is always carrying the bulk of expectation from both sides.  Yet Turkey’s work toward world integration is not being rewarded with a bona-fide offer of regional integration.  And yes, “being fair” has nothing to do with the issue by itself: but treating the West’s agent to the East with respect would be, however, an indicator of sincerity on the part of the West toward predominantly Islamic states.

Genocide
Let’s get this straight right now: I know from the inside of my spine and all the way outward that mass murder and genocide are atrocities.  I also know that acknowledgement is supposed to bring healing and resolution.  In 1919, a Turkish military tribunal sentenced the leaders of the 1915 genocide to death.  This is used as evidence that the genocide occurred.  It is not used, by at least one Armenian advocacy group, to show that the genocide was punished. 

Obviously, some resolution needs to occur past the tribunal.  But continuing to relegate Turkey to a ghetto of nations (where other nations with genocide on their record do not reside) is counter-productive.  Furthermore, the way that this gets used against Turkey is not geared toward a coordinated effort at resolution, but devolves into one incident after another, unrelated to a constructive resolution, and therefore unsolvable.  Most of all: we need Turkey to help us solve the genocides of today, in Africa and the Middle East.

Central Asia Connection
I have already alluded to the Caspian Sea-Turkey energy connection and to Turkey’s tireless work in developing relationships that include the West in predominantly Islamic countries.  right now, Turkey’s relationship to Kazakhstan aids in obtaining oil sales for the West, and for transit countries of the BTC pipeline: Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey itself.  Mediterranean oil port Ceyhan, in Turkey, ships petroleum to Europe and Japan. 

Furthermore, the famed isolation of Turkmenistan has been alleviated, mostly sub rosa, by the work of Turkish firms in Turkmenistan’s textile business.  Very few multinational companies exist in Turkmenistan, but Turkey has been one of them.  By itself, this proves nothing: except that in mainstream discourse, we have omitted Turkey’s contributions to globalization in Central Asia and elsewhere. 

So. my fellow Westerners: let’s think again about dissing our best friend and most faithful representative out there in the world at large.  Those whom we would like to have as friends watch us: they see how we treat the friends we already have. 

Further Reading:
Armenian National Institute–dedicated to the Armenian Genocide
Bay Fang on the U.S. Congressional relationship to Turkey at the Baltimore Sun’s “Swamp”
Proceedings from the Brookings Institution on a great event featuring Turkey, with Ambassador Holbrooke’s comments.
Europe needs Turkey: an editorial from 2003 by Omar Taspinar

Maps: Indiana.edu; Kurdish Connection.com; BTC Investment.com

According to Gundogar, that retrieved the news from Associated Press:

Turkmenistan allows foreign investors to own companies, property
The president adopted legislation allowing foreign investors to create companies and own property in Turkmenistan — moving the natural gas-rich country further from the isolation imposed by his autocratic predecessor.
An amended law on foreign investment, adopted by President Gurbanguli Berdymukhamedov and published Friday in the official newspaper Neutral Turkmenistan, allows foreign investors to create and fully own companies, and to acquire existing companies and property including real estate.

 This is another great sign of isolation barriers coming down.  The problem is of course, that Turkmenistan’s government probably owns all of the property available for sale.  But you have to start somewhere, and generally speaking, corporations will have the money to invest.  The real indicator will be the transparency of property transfer–and of the transparent use of invested capital.  Otherwise, the cycle of:

1. government sells property.  2. government fines purchaser or requires draconian permit laws, making it impossible for purchaser to develop property  3. government expropriates property

begins again, leaving the state in as bad a shape as before. 

This law is designed to facilitate oil and gas investment; however, it may well lead to other types of investment as well.  In particular, some value-added food industry businesses would go a long way toward cutting the cotton monopoly within the state.  But some value-added textile industry input wouldn’t be a bad thing either.

The link above also gives more articles that indicate greater commerce with the outside world: new cell phone company investment, and a large number of trade and state diplomatic delegations which have visited Turkmenistan since February. 

Check out the Gundogar site in the links at right.  They do a good work. . .
 

Every year a couple of stories come out about serf labor in the cotton fields of Central Asia, right about the time that the cotton crop gets harvested.  That day has again arrived this year, but with new, tougher problems for Central Asia’s agricultural laborers and for the state leaders that have made this choice.

The wreck of human capital equals the wreck of state capital
Some judicious reading over the past six months has taught me that the conditions for agricultural labor are poor: the accommodations are inadequate, the food is lousy/not enough.  The pay is small, it is paid less than 100% of the time, and paid whenever the state feels like it, which is Not Right Now.  All sorts of people, including those better utilized elsewhere, are pressed into cotton harvesting.  These include: schoolchildren; teachers; university students.  None of these impressed workers are moving forward in their own lives.  Nor are they moving the state forward as part of an educated, thinking, and contributing populace.  their lives and their studies are interrupted in order to fund today’s dwindling state export dollars on a crop which is essentially ruining Central Asia’s ecology and future ability to earn income from agriculture. 

Yet there’s more than one train wreck here
The newest problems are those which concern those that want to work and can’t.  Little by little, the options of the desperate but willing continue to disappear.  The cost of working — and the barriers to it –become higher and higher.

Uzbekistan, for instance, has recently forbidden its agricultural workers to enter Kyrgyzstan to find work.  According to this Ferghana.ru article, the cotton crop in Uzbekistan is already harvested, and Kyrgyzstan is just beginning its work–jobs are available.  This would be a prime chance for agricultural workers to bring money home to their Uzbekistan families under the remittance economy model.  Security fears post-Andijan fuel this directive.   The cost to the people and to the state for heavy security continues to mount–and increasingly fails to work.   Without outlets for legal commerce, only illegal commerce becomes available.

Previously, Uzbekistan has been charging its migrant workers to leave: an exit visa of sorts, and then taxing their remittance monies to the family, and then charging them when they enter the country again.  Immigration is further limited by Uzbekistan’s strange sense of public relations: denying that the people need economic assistance and/or jobs, they have created policies where people cannot act as if they need work.  Thus, people who need work cannot find work, and people who could bring money to Uzbekistan cannot obtain it.  This circular reasoning contributes to a spiral of economic instability and eventually, security instability.

Government response: more limits, less opportunities
CIS labor ministers are concerned about labor migration, but they have only one-half of the equation.  One can possibly stop illegal migrants, but the urge to migrate for economic reasons occurs when there are less opportunities at home.  Building state capacity in these states will reduce the enforcement cost of stopping them. 

For many of us, these stark facts form an object lesson in how governments have the power to impede markets, virtue, and even the pursuit of necessity.  For those that live it, it is a grim reality that means lost opportunity, lost earning power, malnutrition and for some, death.  The cycle of lost capacity continues to drag Central Asia’s economies down.  One thing is certain: the people work.  But the other thing is, their governments frequently ensure that they work in vain.

Further reading:
Short great article on migrant flows in 2006 at Ferghana.ru, with pictures

Map: Washington.edu

According to a nurse I know and trust:

Medical practitioners in the United States are gearing up for a possible world flu epidemic, and H5N1 is on everyone’s mind.  A large flu epidemic, on the scale of the 1919 pandemic, would curtail essential services (utilities, fire and police protection, other) in developed states.  One is left wondering what this would mean for states with less public health resources and less essential services personnel in the first place.

According to an article at HEALTH-Asia section of the IPS News Service:

As of Oct. 12, 2007, 331 human cases of avian flu in 12 countries in East Asia, Europe and Africa have been reported to the WHO. Of these, 203 have resulted in deaths. Indonesia has been the worst-hit with 87 deaths out of 109 cases, or a mortality rate of 80 percent.

Unresolved questions include at exactly what stage do humans get infected with avian flu — on handling the sick birds, or from eating birds that were sick and died?

There is not enough knowledge about individual human cases of avian flu which have occurred at different times of the year and in different places, Brown explained. Not even the incubation period among humans — which WHO officials put at between two to 10 days — is certain.

Since officials don’t know how the disease is transmitted, and the incubation period looks sufficiently long, it would seem that this flu indeed has the possibility to be devastating–so far, with an 61% death rate (203 dead/331 sick x 100%) world-wide, it seems a powerful disease indeed. 

Globalization existed before the word for it did
For those of us who would like to draw in our heads and forget about the rest of the world, things like Avian Flu / H5N1 are living proof that globalization exists whether we want it to or not.  There’s not a fence high enough, wide enough or finely meshed enough to keep out all the wild ducks and other bird species from travelling wherever we are.

Who’s vulnerable:
If it’s as bad as the worst-case scenario that medical experts are contemplating, then we’re all at risk.  But as always, some are more vulnerable than others.  In general, populations of very old and very young are the most likely to die from flu infections, as well as those who have compromised immune systems for other reasons. 

For states, those which do not have good public health systems, including agricultural news agencies and extension systems are most likely to suffer prolonged effects of outbreak.  

Central Asia
Events related to other well-publicized health care epidemics have shown that Central Asia’s health system is somewhat unequal to the task of containing the spread of disease.  Though HIV is hardly the same thing as H5N1, institutional deficits in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have been revealed through trials concerning the spread of AIDS/SIDA disease by medical means. 

Yet even these states are better off than at least two others in Central Asia: Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, which have been or are so isolated from the world community that they are not reporting avian flu incidence at all.   This state of affairs means that neighbor states: Afghanistan, Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan, et cetera–are at further risk.

For those of you who are interested in contributing to research on this disease, and the spread of information world-wide, the World Health Organization of the United Nations is taking the point on this issue.   And get your flu shot, will you?  It’ll be November before you know it–and there you’ll be, giving the flu to everybody at work.

Previous posts on H5N1 at FPA Central Asia
World Health Organization H5N1 Graphs & Data, links, as of October 2007

Now that I’m back from Latin America, I’m catching up on my Central Asia reading, and I found a new great article in the American Political Science Association’s Perspectives on Politics.

Tucker, J. (2007, September).  Enough! Electoral fraud, collective action problems, and post-communist colored revolutions.  Perspective on Politics 5 (3), 535-550.  This article has a sizable bibliography and some interesting ideas relevant to — for our purposes — Kyrgyzstan and a little concerning Uzbekistan.

 A. Professor Tucker first examines the phenomenon of the colored revolution (hereinafter CR) as discussed in most analyses.  He notes that most scholarship on the CR tends to privilege the decision-making abilities and choices of elites–that “geostratic politics, CIA-organized plots, elite-based modular learning, and the inability of government elites to successfully consolidate authoritarian rule” are the usual explanations for the phenomenon. 

He then turns to a look at the street-level participants (i.e., the masses who braved the weather in places such as Serbia, Kyrgyzstan, Ukraine, and Georgia) to discuss their reading of events.  In particular, he notes that demonstration participants have to overcome the risks and costs of collective action in order to demonstrate.  People dissatisfied with government most frequently do not protest–just look at your own state, wherever you are–but the colored revolutions overcame the individual perceptions of risk into collective action. 

Now that this is set up as an economic evaluation–and Professor Tucker maintains that at elections, with sizable numbers of international observers, a clear chance at making a change, and a large participation, more people perceive the risk/benefit of collective action as markedly different.  While this takes the passion out of the motivations for demonstration, it does seem to show why, at least, there isn’t more demonstrating out there.  With numbers of observers, there is more chance at publicizing grievance and less chance at state-initiated violence; with numbers of participants, there is less chance at being singled out and punished by law enforcement officials; and with corrupt elections and high passions, there seems to be a likelihood at success in actually changing matters somewhat.

However, Professor Tucker’s paper is most valuable in saying that there is no clear correspondence between the CR and “heading West”, contrary to the views of those who favor and those who denigrate the CR.  Every state that has undergone a CR still views Russia as a powerful ally and useful friend.  Furthermore, a colored revolution is less a mandate to the new government than a warning to all government that change is desired:  in general, the change seems to be against high-level and low-level corruption.  This seems quite clear in Kyrgyzstan, where Mr. Bakiev continues to have problems and the legislature has not had the same protests that the president has had. 

His last point, that elites contemplating election fraud or further corruption might well learn from the colored revolution: first, less observers and second, more violence, or, more threat of violence–in order to change the individual’s assessment of cost-benefit analysis.  A higher cost will keep him or her on the couch and off the curb with a colorful flag and a shouted slogan.  And this recalled, for Professor Tucker, the government conduct at Andijan . . . minus the election part, of course.

Thanks to Professor Tucker for a very readable article.

A curious mix of science, publicity, politics, engineering, and Big Bucks:  no, not a new Matrix movie.  Instead, the latest installment of business/political cooperation into the stratosphere continues to develop, a legend in the making and well worth our attention.  Yesterday, a new Russian space flight from Kazakhstan’s Baikonur, with a crew of many nations.  According to Reuters:

Inside the capsule was NASA astronaut Peggy Whitson, 47, who will take over command of the station for the next six months, flight engineer cosmonaut Yuri Malenchenko, 45, and Sheikh Muszaphar Shukor, a 35-year-old orthopedic surgeon and part-time model from Malaysia.

Shukor’s flight is part of a commercial deal Russia cut to sell aircraft to Malaysia.

Well, now that business is fully involved, and models, there should be a new movie or two out of this, that involves models, Malaysia, various large corporations, and perhaps endangered species and/or monsters.

All those that would like to develop a plot are free to use the comment space below.  There are agents waiting to hear from you.

Luxury Trade:
Also, those that want to develop Baikonur further in order to stave off those pesky Russians from developing a new, non-Kazakh space station: we need both engineers for improved technology and more people who understand the luxury trade.  Because Malaysia’s hottest models and the US’s most interesting moguls keep turning up in Baikonur, and I’m sure they want state of the art accommodations as well as state of the art safety features.   I’m thinking anodyzed color finishes on the space suits, for one thing.  And a few accessories, such as a chiffon muffler that floats out in zero gravity.  A bridal package, with a cake stuffed in Mylar.  Stuff like that.

Seriously, though: congratulations to Malaysia and all of the crew from every state.  We wish you safety and good science.

After a long series of events featuring Portugal and the globalization/colonialization of Asia & South America, the Freer/Sackler Gallery is again turning to Rumi, the great poet, and his 800th anniversary of his birth.

On the 27th of this month in Washington DC’s great museum of Islamic and Asian art, a day-long festival of poetry and music that commemorates Rumi and his legacy will be taking place.  In particular, at noon on the 27th, a combined music and poetry presentation begins and once again salutes the world’s most popular poet.

Check this event calendar  for the 27th of October at the Sackler. . . and all the great events.  If you are in the DC area, it is well worth checking out.

Today at Eurasianet, one of my favorite writers talks about a new but limited openness in Turkmenistan from the vantage of the street, the hotel, the taxicab.   I love this article because it points out the difficulties for the state on a psychological level.  He writes that government policies are changing slowly and selectively: his phone is probably tapped, and his access is hugely restricted, but sometimes, people whisper their opinions to him.  Yet equally importantly, he documents the way that people think has to change, in almost every way.  For instance, he writes that people do not use the president’s name–there is “the former president” and “the current president”.

Another aspect that I note in this article is that the visual seems to count more than anything: the heavy cosmetics on the sales attendants, the large marble palaces and not the single-family homes.  We should reflect upon this and realize that globalization brings a veneer first, before it brings substance.  This is true, probably, for us all–and we should use our other senses, even when the veneer is a little more universal–a little thicker, as it were.   For Turkmenistan’s people, used to the heavy doublethink and doublespeak of the former president, Mr. Niyazov/Turkmenbashi, there are at least two problems: first, the heavy and nearly impossible problem of trust and confidence in government.  It’s very difficult to build people to run institutions (governmental and private) and voters to inquire about issues when all have been trained for generations to not take initiative and to not inquire.  It’s easier for all of us: developing and developed world–to just take our pictures of a good daily life from television.

Second, the ability to take the visual aspects of democratization and turn them into an intellectual understanding of trustworthy government–and last, to feel the confidence, burdens, and privileges of democracy in daily life.  This is not a problem of intelligence, but a matter of overcoming or utilizing some very hard experiences without a corresponding experience in free movement to fuel an ambition for democracy.  In the U.S., democracy did not provide universal suffrage over 100 years–and it took almost 200 years, after the civil rights movement, to make the law an actual practice.  The problems are a little different in Turkmenistan, the sense of limits more strong.  At the very least, there is no untamed frontier to escape to if government becomes restrictive, the way the U.S. had in the 1600s to 2oth Century.  If Mr. Berdymukhamedov’s government were to become completely free and fair tomorrow, there would still be considerable adjustment to be made for the people themselves.

Last week, at NewEurasianet, Conquistador reported on a speech President Berdymkhammedov made at Columbia University, an unprecedented and wonderful event.  You can watch the film yourself, and again, the psychological clues are fascinating.  Mr. Berdymukhamedov looked nervous (yeah, I would be too) and his delivery style is untainted by the need to sell an idea or his leadership.  His head is down as he reads, earnestly, of his desire to re-develop Turkmenistan’s capacity to deliver medical services.  Clearly this issue is important to him–his words here include more personal information and commitment than in any other part of the speech–but his body language never changes.  With that, the audience was free to miss the clues inherent in this part of the speech.  (Portal page for speech is here).

It takes time to learn how to talk capacity, importance, and negotiation–and even longer to build trust.  It’s going to be a long road for Turkmenistan, and we need to work at it in order to pick up the clues when they come.  With our free press, we have  a chance to review these kinds of clues, over and over again, and engage.  The engagement of the outside world has to take into account the difficulties of psychological change. 

Photo: Ferghana.ru