Tajikistan trade: agreements, kiss-offs, opportunities
Qatar & friendly trade:
This week, Qatar’s Minister of Finance and Acting Minister of Economy and Commerce Mr. Yousuf Hussein Kamal visited Tajikistan. While in Tajikistan, he and President Rakhmon arranged a cornucopia of economic agreements. These include setting up a council of business leaders from the Chambers of Commerce and Industry in both states, to facilitate trade and idea exchanges. Mr. Kamal also signed a document that allowed a Qatar-Tajikistan partnership between livestock companies, and Qatar also signed agreements concerning Dushanbe Real Estate.
Uzbekistan’s virtual fence:
Uzbekistan has closed the border to Tajikistan before the September 1-2 Independence Day celebrations, citing possible security breaches.
Just contemplate the preceding sentence for a minute. Then think about border trade cut-offs. It’s not the easiest thing, to be a neighbor of an isolationist state.
Russia’s old project:
All that friendly feeling did not extend to Russia’s RusAl, (or, Russian Aluminum), who had planned, with Russia’s Mr. Putin’s support, to build the proposed Rogun hydropower plant in Tajikistan. Rogun hydropower plant was supposed to have a capacity of 13 billion kW/h on the highland Vakhsh River, but negotiations broke down as to the quality of the dam that would have been required. President Rakhmon announced that Tajikistan would build it or seek other backers this past June; and has formally abrogated their RusAl contract as of today.
So, who might be courting for Rogun? Looks like India, or maybe China or Pakistan.
Afghanistan:
The Panj River Bridge between Afghanistan and Tajikistan is open, to mixed reviews. It’s a beautiful bridge that is going to bring new opportunities for legal and illegal trade. Check out this post by Vadim for a full, educated discussion on the situation.
A newer article by Vadim covered the opening ceremonies, where Mr. Rakhmon talked about the illegal trade and Mr. Karzai talked about the legal trade, which is probably an indicator of the challenges foremost in each leader’s mind.
In the end, he gives us a fascinating tableau of Sinatra, Afghan singing, and Tajik television that is the essence of the bright moments of globalization. And it looks like Tajikistan will continue to try to get more of those bright moments.
August 29th, 2007 at 8:19 pm
[…] Plenty of trade-related news from Tajikistan - and Bonnie Boyd has them all. Share This […]
August 31st, 2007 at 11:10 am
[…] Tajikistan: –Tajikistan’s new bilateral investment opportunities with Qatar, Afghanistan, and India were covered earlier this week. However, Tajikistan can set up all the free economic zones (FEZ) it likes, but needs basic infrastructure and reliable energy before they’ll turn around the economy. […]
September 3rd, 2007 at 9:27 am
Re. Rogun: A us energy company had a strong interest in the project, but russians willing to take Americans out of the competition overpromised just to secure the contract. As we all have seen they underdelivered (or did not deliver anything at all)…
If Tajikistan wants to sell its energy abroad (most profitable business is delivering power through afghanistan to Pakistan) then it needs to partner up with a country that can guarantee the security of its transmission lines in the southern neighbor.
But Tajikistan has been caught up in Moscow imperialistic games, for which the country pays a really high toll. Refusing to pursue its own economic freedom the country brings its own doomsday one step closer.
September 4th, 2007 at 11:18 am
Dear Sylon,
I appreciate these comments very much, especially as they seem like indicators of overall elements of business in Central Asia and for that matter the U.S., the Russian Federation, and South Asia.
Also, it points out the strategic importance of Afghanistan to the West.
A very informed comment. I also checked out your blog, which has some very interesting articles well worth perusal by other readers.
Please write in again.
Sincerely,
Bonnie
September 6th, 2007 at 8:12 am
Dear Bonnie,
It is always a pleasure o read your posts. As I said before they are never dull and never leave me impartial to the issues you discuss here.
So in a way my comments are there result of inspiration (if I can call it that way) which comes from reading your material.
BTW: thanks for mentioning my blog. I will try to post my ideas more often there.
Regarding the importance of Afghanistan to the West: Do you think the strategic importance of Afghanistan has military implications (i.e. establishing a foothold in Central Asia)?
If yes then what do you think are the major drivers? Being close to China or surrounding Iran? With plans to withdraw troops from Iraq the latter seems less likely. But again from a purely practical point of view choosing Afghanistan as a foothold is a bit risky given the country’s turbulent past (and present).
There are a lot of bits and pieces of mozaic that at this moment do not quite make sense. The US has built a multi-million dollar bridge between Afghanistan and Tajikistan recently and I am clueless about the true present utility of the bridge to the US. For Tajikistan it sure is a good development (again anything that makes it economically independent is)… But I wonder what beef US has got in this thing..
Any thoughts, speculations?
September 6th, 2007 at 8:43 pm
Dear Sylon,
I don’t think that the U.S. has long-term strategic plans against China or Russia or Central Asia with Afghanistan. It is not the most direct route or even most cost-effective one. I think that the U.S. is in Afghanistan to remove the Taliban, just as the U.S. said when it went in. Any other strategic effect that can be managed is of course to some benefit. However, given the lack of attention to Afghanistan overall, and Central Asian Republics lately, I would say that again, U.S. actions lack that conspiratorial flavor.
For Iran, I can be a little less confident, because the U.S. and Iran have made a few efforts toward rapprochement since 1979 which have always died in infancy. The rest of the efforts have been ‘not made’, so to speak. I am sure that Iran very carefully considers that they have U.S. troop deployments on either side of their borders. In my opinion, which is not terribly expert, Iran’s increasing defense expenditures partly stem from this, and that is a factor the U.S. may not have considered fully when entering Iraq. And it certainly seems to me that Afghanistan could be an issue in which Iran and the U.S. have enough common interests to work together. However, this begins to go a little past Central Asia so I will not say any more.
The Panj River bridge does not have much present utility but if Afghanistan can get a legal economy running it will be of benefit to both nations. Big projects such as this are value-neutral in that they help everyone, legal and illegal, but are more necessary to legal trade than the illegal kind. For instance, if Afghanistan could sell produce like apples or grapes in Tajikistan, then it will benefit the product’s suppliers and consumers to have a smooth road across. The bridge’s aim is largely aspirational at this point (and a headache for Tajik border patrol attempting morphine interdiction). Vadim has written some great stuff on this bridge over at NewEurasia.net. He does a great job over there, as do most of the neweurasia gang.
Thanks for the great comments,
Bonnie