First of all, a shout-out to the folks at registan.net, for doing everything well. Here is a great post on how sudden and unexpected the violence was for journalists and scholars of the region, as the region is known for for relative peace. Poverty, but peace. What is so interesting is that no one on the ground saw it coming, either. People were awakened in the middle of the night and truly could not believe this was happening.

As someone who studies the history of the region, the ethnic violence in southern Kyrgyzstan stands out as not being based in historical events. The only way I understand the violence is that Bakiyev’s ousting and consequent political vacuum led to violence. Ethnicity was just a smokescreen, a legitimate category for expressing violence. It is a category legitimized by ethnic violence elsewhere in the world and by those in the global media who point to it as a timeless factor. Unfortunately, this leaves no one obvious to blame.

My question is this- If all the governments in post-Soviet Central Asia run in basically the same way, why is Kyrgyzstan the least stable? Why no violence after Niyazov died? Why nothing in Tajikistan after the bloody civil war in the 1990’s?

(picture from neweurasia.net, an incredible resource for news in the region)

At least 77 people have died in clashes in the south of Kyrgyzstan, according to Al-Jazeera. It seems that thousands of ethnic Uzbeks, mostly women and children, are fleeing for safety to Uzbekistan. They claim that they have been attacked by militias and by the Kyrgyz military and police. The interim government is appealing to Russia and the world for help. They cannot keep their own population safe. Uzbekistan is allowing ethnic Uzbeks to cross the border.

I may have been naive to believe that ethnic clashes wouldn’t get so violent. Rather than think of this as ancient historical rivalries, these are a response to specific current tensions and a lack of a strong, centralized government. I hope there will be an intervention, even from Russia, to stop the completely senseless killings.

The BBC reports that Friday May 14th, there were clashes in the southern city of Jalalabad between supporters of ousted president Bakiyev and supporters of the interim government. 2 people were killed and 60 injured as nearly 2,000 of Bakiyev’s supporters attempted to re-gain control of government buildings. The interim government now says the situation is within their control.
The US and Russia have urged calm, and I will do so as well.

The recent events in Kyrgyzstan have not only raised the question of what actually happened there, but how we can understand it? The NYTimes and CNN have mostly been awful, with some exceptions: This opinion piece being the major one.

On the other hand, Registan.net has been extraordinary. This article on how to understand media on Kyrgyzstan and this one on the events stand out.

A state of emergency has been declared in response to massive protests over a spike in utility costs. Kurmanbek Bakiyev seems to have stepped down, left the country, and the opposition has claimed control over the government. 100 people have been killed, the police are firing live rounds into crowds, protesters have stormed parliament.

Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSfnax1yWMQ&feature=player_embedded

There are a lot of unconfirmed reports- Bakiyev’s house set on fire, snipers firing at protestors, etc. I’ll try and update when some sense has been made.

My heart goes out to the Kyrgyz people.

Happy Novruz everyone. I am full on plov from the Seattle-Tashkent sister city celebration. Mmm.

Kazakh Oil Company leaders have met with striking workers in Zhanaozen. Since March 4, several thousand workers have been striking over various issues relating to wages and leadership. As head of the OSCE, Kazakhstan is feeling some pressure to be a reasonable member of the European community, which include negotiating with striking workers.

As of yesterday, the strike was ended, with both sides resolving their issues amicably. Unfortunately, one worker passed away from high blood pressure and another was hospitalized.

The Washington Post has a fascinating article on the uranium market in Kazakhstan, complete with extensive photo galleries. The most illuminating aspect was the arrest of Mukhtar Dzhakishev, the former chief executive of the state nuclear firm Kazatomprom. According to the Post, “the KNB, local successor to the KGB, accused him of transferring the rights to 60 percent of the nation’s uranium deposits — worth billions of dollars — to offshore companies under his control. Dzhakishev, 45, denied the charge and remains in prison. But in a remarkable breach of security, somebody leaked a 64-minute video of him speaking to KNB investigators where he accused Russia of benefiting from his arrest in order to Kazakhstan from becoming a more independent and formidable competitor.”

The videos are broken up into 10-minute blocks, but here is the first:

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlSLf0Anq…

Dzhakishev’s story shows how Kazakhstan is run by bureaucratized clan relations, with Russia benefiting from the fallout- pun not intended.

Nabucco, the gas pipeline that will transport energy to Europe without Gazprom, has always been tentative. Turkmenistan, the main supplier, seems to have over-stretched itself, with export promises to China, Russia, and Iran. The other main source, Azerbaijan’s Shah-Deniz field, is under dispute with Turkey over pricing.

OMV, an Austrian firm, isn’t sure there is enough demand.

Gazprom has been pushing its own alternative, South Stream, which will cross the Black Sea and do nothing for Europe’s diversification goals and further impoverish transport countries like Ukraine, Belarus and Poland.

Now the US State Department’s Special Envoy for Eurasian energy affairs, Richard Morningstar, in what seems very strange, is suggesting that Gazprom could be a supplier for Nabucco! So this extremely politically difficult, extremely expensive pipeline, being built to diversify Europe’s supply chain, may be rendered pointless.

Ok, so this talk may amount to nothing, but it does show how much needs to be resolved before construction begins- now scheduled for 2011, to be operational by 2015. To be sure, on paper, all is going as planned- on February 3, all five stakeholder countries ratified an inter-governmental agreement on Nabucco.

Danish journalist Michael Andersen argues yes. His new documentary, available via youtube, here: Documentary

His interview can be found on ferghana.ru’s website, http://enews.ferghana.ru/article.php?id=…

Radio Liberty comments here on official Islam.

Overall, I agree with Andersen. He can be reached at  michaelandersencentralasia at yahoo.com

At the end of December, leaders of Russia and Turkmenistan met to discuss the future of their relationship. First, on December 22, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and his Turkmen counterpart Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov met in Ashgabat and signed an agreement to expand bilateral “strategic” energy cooperation. Then the heads of Gazprom and Turkmengaz signed an agreement on the resumption of Turkmen gas supplies to Russia with the start of 2010, amounting to 30 billion cubic meters (bcm) annually.

These new agreements of cooperation and commerce are in the context of an improving world economy and rising demand for natural gas in Europe. It is also in the context of Turkmenistan’s growing diversification of gas buyers. According to the Jamestown Foundation, this January 5th, the Iranian President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, traveled to Turkmenistan to inaugurate a bilateral gas pipeline project, the 182 kilometer line from Dauletaban-Khangeran. During their bilateral talks, both sides pledged to raise the annual trade turnover to $10 billion, up from $3 billion in 2009.

Iran and Turkmenistan have taken advantage of their extensive border and dictatorial governing styles by instituting a series of strategic projects. For example, the Tejen-Sarahs-Mashhad railway line is operating between the two countries, as is the Dostluk water reservoir in the border area. On December 9 the two governments also inaugurated a jointly built gas storage and transportation terminal at Gylanly on Turkmenistan’s Caspian coast. (via Vladimir Socor with the Jamestown Foundation)